Russo-Ukrainian War - 2022 Edition - Part 5

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Sneeky

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The supporters of Ukraine will have to make a plan. If you look at the material support being offered then you will see a lot of the equipment will not arrive soon enough. Some promised equipment will only arrive in a few years (e.g. some of the promised German support).

I suspect the Russians will shock 'n awe their way right up until the claimed territories and then attempt to setup some kind of buffer zone (similar to North and South Korea).
Don't underestimate how much hardware the west could move in a very short space of time. While promises have been made by certain countries for yet to be manufactured kit, there is a massive amount of capability that could be airlifted and in place in a short space of time.
The Wests response to date has been very measured to allow Ukr to regain its territory, no more. If Russia changes the game, expect the West to do the same. Moskva may have a new friend soon.
Time will tell, firing missiles from a ship at Kiev and it's population is not going to give them their illegally annexed territory back, it will simply strengthen their resolve to fight.
 

tetrasect

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So you agree with me. They hinted at something vague and nebulous and he was stupid, and naive to not formalize it. Or more likely, he had no other choice. His country was collapsing and he was going to obtain plenty of aid from the West in exchange for tearing down the Wall... etc.
Nope. They never hinted at anything, and he specifically said in the interview:"Don’t portray me (Gorbachev) and the then-Soviet authorities as naïve people who were wrapped around the West’s finger.

If Gorbachev was really taken in by these vague, jests he would have made them formal. There is no spirit in politics and national interests. That's up to him and Raisa.

He didn't, ergo he knew this was all BS at the time. He was later hated by many USSR fanboys in Russia and so he may have said this to cover his a$$. He didn't want to lie too much though because he still had his cred in Western circles.

Yeah idk what he means by the "spirit" of the agreement, when the topic was not even discussed or even brought up. Guess he was just a bit butt-hurt that the ex-Soviet countries decided they would rather be part of Europe than Russia.
 

tetrasect

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EM06b76.png

So Russia has lost out on the UK market.

How is the UK market doing without Russia? Better than ever.

OA1Enzb.png
 

Mirai

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Nope. They never hinted at anything, and he specifically said in the interview:"Don’t portray me (Gorbachev) and the then-Soviet authorities as naïve people who were wrapped around the West’s finger.

I'm happy if they never hinted but there were possibly some hints made here:

Baker: If that happens, our troops will return home. We will leave any country that does not desire our presence. The American people have always had a strong position favoring this. However, if the current West German leadership is at the head of a unified Germany then they have said to us they will be against our withdrawal. And the last point. NATO is the mechanism for securing the U.S. presence in Europe. If NATO is liquidated, there will be no such mechanism in Europe. We understand that not only for the Soviet Union but for other European countries as well it is important to have guarantees that if the United States keeps its presence in Germany within the framework of NATO, not an inch of NATO’s present military jurisdiction will spread in an eastern direction


It's vague and nebulous but Russians cling on to such BS. I would maintain that these are worthless and not binding for many reasons.

Yeah idk what he means by the "spirit" of the agreement, when the topic was not even discussed or even brought up. Guess he was just a bit butt-hurt that the ex-Soviet countries decided they would rather be part of Europe than Russia.

You have to look at Gorbachev from his own peoples' reactions. For Russians, opinion of other Russians is No 1. Gorbachev became very unpopular and was blamed for the 'collapse' of USSR and the instability which followed. Here he can at least claim with the spirit defense that he meant well and his was smitten by Baker's eye lashes or whatever. Idk either.
 

MunosMachos

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Don't underestimate how much hardware the west could move in a very short space of time. While promises have been made by certain countries for yet to be manufactured kit, there is a massive amount of capability that could be airlifted and in place in a short space of time.
The Wests response to date has been very measured to allow Ukr to regain its territory, no more. If Russia changes the game, expect the West to do the same. Moskva may have a new friend soon.
Time will tell, firing missiles from a ship at Kiev and it's population is not going to give them their illegally annexed territory back, it will simply strengthen their resolve to fight.
Germany is definately dragging their feet. And with good reason. They were well on their way towards more prosperity by working with the Russians for cheap energy.

Time will tell whether the Ukrainian flags in German's Twitter bios will keep them warm and fed.
 

tetrasect

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I'm happy if they never hinted but there were possibly some hints made here:

Baker: If that happens, our troops will return home. We will leave any country that does not desire our presence. The American people have always had a strong position favoring this. However, if the current West German leadership is at the head of a unified Germany then they have said to us they will be against our withdrawal. And the last point. NATO is the mechanism for securing the U.S. presence in Europe. If NATO is liquidated, there will be no such mechanism in Europe. We understand that not only for the Soviet Union but for other European countries as well it is important to have guarantees that if the United States keeps its presence in Germany within the framework of NATO, not an inch of NATO’s present military jurisdiction will spread in an eastern direction

Yeah that was a separate topic regarding eastern Germany. AFAIK those agreements hold to this day. (Or at least they were being observed at the time of the interview)

It's vague and nebulous but Russians cling on to such BS. I would maintain that these are worthless and not binding for many reasons.
Yip.

The Russian propagandists have taken the statement "Nato will not expand east" which was a statement about East-Germany, and stripped it of it's context.

Now they claim it somehow applied to eastern Europe as a whole, which is patently false.

You have to look at Gorbachev from his own peoples' reactions. For Russians, opinion of other Russians is No 1. Gorbachev became very unpopular and was blamed for the 'collapse' of USSR and the instability which followed. Here he can at least claim with the spirit defense that he meant well and his was smitten by Baker's eye lashes or whatever. Idk either.
 

The Trutherizer

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This Russian commander-in-chief Surovikin sounds like bad news. Known to the Russians as “General Armageddon" or “Cannibal”. Looks like he is going for the shock and awe tactic by overloading air defenses and blowing up electrical infrastructure.

Now is a good time for Zelensky to negotiate. Later he might have to negotiate with smoke signals and pigeons.

Winter is also coming so when the ground freezes and Ukraine is bombed back into the dark ages with North Korean purchased missiles, Russia will try to mop up Ukrainian forces.

There are some assumptions in your statement which warrant comment.

For one if he leads from the back, then what real difference will there be? The same useless and corrupt intermediary command structure will still be there. And it's not like Russia hasn't used atrocious tactics thus far in the invasion. For example Mariupol was levelled for the most part, and it did not shake Ukraine's resolve. If anything it strengthened Ukraine's resolve. As well as that of Ukraine's supporting partners from aboard. Every Russian escalation just convinces Ukraine even more that their very existence is on the line. And likewise validates the West's support of Ukraine.

Winter is just as much a problem for the Russian invasion, if not more so, than for Ukrainians who will be fighting on their own territory in winter conditions that they've known since their birth. Ukrainians everywhere rooting for their troops. Even eager to provide food for their Ukrainian boys. Russian troops on the other hand appear to be responsible for most of their own provision and if the summer time entrenchments and encampments were anything to go by...

Finally. Not "North Korean purchased missiles" - It's "North Korean purchased rockets". There's a big difference between missiles and rockets. Let alone when long distance cruise missiles are part of the conversation. The type of thing Russia is using to target Kyiv now out of spite is without a doubt in ever shorter supply for the Russian military. High tech sanctions have ensured that manufacturing replacements is highly challenging for Russia. Not that Russia has the industrial capacity to just resupply with high tech missile systems at a rapid pace to start with. It's high tech. The old cookie cutter stuff maybe... But that is exactly what Russia is getting from North Korea (why? Haven't you wondered?).

North Korea is estimated to have about 20 000 artillery pieces (rockets and shells) compatible with some or other Russian weapons delivery system. From the cold war. Which has a track record of "miserable artillery performance" (in their exchanges with South Korea). The rest of the claimed "millions" will be bullets.

Putin's regime miscalculated to a catastrophic degree. Most of Russia's messaging is designed for one thing only. Keeping Russians convinced it's not time for a regime change yet. While they hold their fingers crossed that maybe the West will finally be sufficiently intimidated to give them a political out.
 

f2wohf

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Sorry I haven't been on the forum for eons, but I just laughed when seeing that the attack on Kyiv today destroyed some parts of Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv.

Which department was destroyed? Russian Studies.

Another own goal...
 

tetrasect

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Germany is definately dragging their feet. And with good reason. They were well on their way towards more prosperity by working with the Russians for cheap energy.

Time will tell whether the Ukrainian flags in German's Twitter bios will keep them warm and fed.

Pretty sure they own jackets and pants made for skiing in -20 degree weather.

The only people in Europe who will freeze are the Russian soldiers who don't have winter uniforms because they only ever existed on paper and nobody is willing to sell any to Russia.
 

Mirai

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There are some assumptions in your statement which warrant comment.

For one if he leads from the back, then what real difference will there be? The same useless and corrupt intermediary command structure will still be there. And it's not like Russia hasn't used atrocious tactics thus far in the invasion. For example Mariupol was levelled for the most part, and it did not shake Ukraine's resolve. If anything it strengthened Ukraine's resolve. As well as that of Ukraine's supporting partners from aboard. Every Russian escalation just convinces Ukraine even more that their very existence is on the line. And likewise validates the West's support of Ukraine.

Winter is just as much a problem for the Russian invasion, if not more so, than for Ukrainians who will be fighting on their own territory in winter conditions that they've known since their birth. Ukrainians everywhere rooting for their troops. Even eager to provide food for their Ukrainian boys. Russian troops on the other hand appear to be responsible for most of their own provision and if the summer time entrenchments and encampments were anything to go by...

Finally. Not "North Korean purchased missiles" - It's "North Korean purchased rockets". There's a big difference between missiles and rockets. Let alone when long distance cruise missiles are part of the conversation. The type of thing Russia is using to target Kyiv now out of spite is without a doubt in ever shorter supply for the Russian military. High tech sanctions have ensured that manufacturing replacements is highly challenging for Russia. Not that Russia has the industrial capacity to just resupply with high tech missile systems at a rapid pace to start with. It's high tech. The old cookie cutter stuff maybe... But that is exactly what Russia is getting from North Korea (why? Haven't you wondered?).

North Korea is estimated to have about 20 000 artillery pieces (rockets and shells) compatible with some or other Russian weapons delivery system. From the cold war. Which has a track record of "miserable artillery performance" (in their exchanges with South Korea). The rest of the claimed "millions" will be bullets.

Putin's regime miscalculated to a catastrophic degree. Most of Russia's messaging is designed for one thing only. Keeping Russians convinced it's not time for a regime change yet. While they hold their fingers crossed that maybe the West will finally be sufficiently intimidated to give them a political out.

Putin miscalculated because US was being pushed out of Europe by Merkel/Macron. NS2 would have come online. They could resell that gas all over Europe. For some reason, instead of waiting longer, Putin decided he must act now. Hence some claim he may have some serious illness.

The Ukrainians learned their lessons, got trained by people like Karber and also realised that with some upgrades they can hold up to the corrupt RUssian army after all, they were such a corrupt army not so long ago. They drank vodka with these same Russians and knew how they operated.
 
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