Amazingly accurate predictions
Answer (1 of 26): Retired colonel Mikhail Khodorenko was a whipping boy to Putin’s fantasies on Russian propaganda tv. In early modern Europe, a whipping boy was a boy who studied along with a prince and received punishment for the prince's transgressions in his presence. Mikhail Khodarenko, mi...
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Retired colonel Mikhail Khodorenko was a whipping boy to Putin’s fantasies on Russian propaganda tv.
In early modern Europe, a whipping boy was a boy who studied along with a prince and received punishment for the prince's transgressions in his presence.
Mikhail Khodarenko, military expert, retired colonel, and ex-head of the 1st Group of the 1st Direction of the 1st Directorate of the Main Operational Directorate of the General Staff of the Armed Forces had obediently served as a whipping boy on Russian propaganda talk shows for ages.
Royal propagandists would say stupid slogans like “we’re gonna defeat Ukraine in ten minutes” and Khodarenko would counter them with evidence and facts based rebuffs.
For the transgression against Putin’s wet dreams, Khodarenko would immediately get whipped - ridiculed, shouted at, scoffed, and when words failed, beaten.
Ironically, Khodarenko was the only sane person in the lunatic asylum of Russian television while all of the deranged Russia laughed at him believing he was a funny clown.
Unsuccessful invasion of Ukraine has turned the tables, and it’s safe to say now: In Russia, whipping boy whips you.
Two weeks before the invasion, Khodorenko published an article "Forecasts of Bloodthirsty Political Scientists. About Enthusiastic Hawks and Hasty Cuckoos" in Nezavisimaya Newspaper with his predictions of what to expect if Russia attacks Ukraine.
Here are some excerpts. I began to mark in italics colonel’s predictions that would come true until realising that the man whom Russian propaganda used as a buffoon has predicted everything absolutely correctly.
“Some representatives of the Russian political class today argue that Russia is able to inflict a crushing defeat on Ukraine in a few hours (shorter terms are also mentioned) if a military conflict breaks out. Let's see how such statements correspond to reality.
In the expert community of Russia, the opinion has recently taken root quite strongly that it will not even be necessary to send troops to the territory of Ukraine, since the Armed Forces of this country are in a deplorable state.
Some political analysts emphasize that a powerful Russian fire strike will destroy almost all surveillance and communication systems, artillery and tank formations. Moreover, a number of experts conclude that even one crushing blow from Russia will be enough to end such a war.
As a cherry on the cake, some analysts emphasize the fact that no one in Ukraine will defend the “Kyiv Regime”.
THERE WILL NOT BE AN EASY WALK
To assert that no one in Ukraine will defend the regime means, in practice, complete ignorance of the military-political situation and the mood of the broad masses of the people in the neighboring state.
Moreover, the degree of hatred (which, as you know, is the most effective fuel for armed struggle) in the neighboring republic in relation to Moscow is frankly underestimated. No one will meet the Russian army with bread, salt and flowers in Ukraine.
It seems that the events in the south-east of Ukraine in 2014 did not teach anyone anything. Then, after all, they also expected that the entire left-bank Ukraine would turn into Novorossia in a single impulse and in a matter of seconds. We have already drawn maps, figured out the personnel of future administrations of cities and regions, and developed state flags.
But even the Russian-speaking population of this part of Ukraine (including such cities as Kharkov, Zaporozhye, Dnepropetrovsk, Mariupol) did not support such plans in their vast majority. The project "Novorossiya" was somehow imperceptibly blown away and quietly died.
In a word, the liberation campaign in 2022, following the model and likeness of 1939, will not work out in any way.
WE WILL INFLICT A POWERFUL BLOW WITH LITTLE SPILT BLOOD.
Of course, MOU (massive strategic strikes) will inflict heavy losses on a potential enemy. But to expect to crush the armed forces of an entire state with just one such blow means to show simply unbridled optimism in the course of planning and conducting combat operations.
Such MOUs in the course of hypothetical strategic actions on the theater of operations will have to be delivered not one or two, but much more.
It must be added by all means that the stocks of promising and high-precision weapons in the RF Armed Forces are not of any unlimited nature.
Hypersonic missiles of the Zircon type are not yet in service.
And the number of Kalibr (sea-launched cruise missiles), Kinzhals, Kh-101 (air-launched cruise missiles) and Iskander missiles is measured in the hundreds at best (tens in the case of Kinzhals).
This arsenal is absolutely not enough to wipe out a state the size of France and with a population of more than 40 million from the face of the Earth. Namely, Ukraine is characterized by such parameters.
ABOUT AIR SUPERIORITY
Sometimes it is asserted in the Russian expert community (followers of the Douai doctrine) that since the hypothetical military operations in Ukraine will take place under the conditions of complete dominance of Russian aircraft in the air, the war will be extremely short and will end in the shortest possible time.
At the same time, it is somehow forgotten that the armed formations of the Afghan opposition during the conflict of 1979-1989 did not have a single aircraft and not a single combat helicopter. And the war in this country dragged on for as much as 10 years.
The Chechen fighters did not have a single aircraft either. And the fight against them continued for several years and cost the federal forces a lot of blood and casualties.
The Armed Forces of Ukraine still have combat aircraft as well as means of air defence.
MOURNED IN ADVANCE
Now about the thesis "The Armed Forces of Ukraine are in a deplorable state."
Of course, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have problems with aviation and modern air defense systems. But the following must also be acknowledged.
If before 2014 the Armed Forces of Ukraine were a fragment of the Soviet army, then over the past seven years a qualitatively different army has been created in Ukraine, on a completely different ideological basis and largely on NATO standards.
And very modern weapons and equipment are being supplied and continue to be supplied to Ukraine from many countries of the NATO.
This army cannot be taken lightly. In this regard, one must always remember the testament of Alexander Suvorov: "Never despise your enemy, do not consider him dumber and weaker than you."
With regard to the assertion that Western countries will not send a single soldier to die for Ukraine.
It should be noted that this is likely to be the case. However, in the event of Russia's invasion, this does not at all rule out massive assistance to the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the collective West with a wide variety of weapons and military equipment and bulk deliveries of all kinds of materiel.
In this regard, the West has already shown a consolidated position, unprecedented until now, which, it seems, was not predicted in Moscow.
There is no doubt that the United States and the countries of the NATO will begin some kind of reincarnation of Lend-Lease, modeled after the Second World War. An influx of volunteers from the West, which can be very numerous, is not ruled out.
PARTISANS AND UNDERGROUND
And finally, about the duration of a hypothetical campaign.
In the Russian expert community, several hours are called, sometimes even several tens of minutes for the operation. At the same time, it is somehow forgotten that we have already gone through all this.
The phrase "take the city with one airborne regiment in two hours" has already become a classic of the satire genre.
It is also worth recalling that the mighty Stalinist NKVD and the multi-million Soviet army fought the nationalist underground in Western Ukraine for more than 10 years.
There is an option that the whole of Ukraine can easily become partisans. In addition, these formations can easily begin to operate already on the territory of Russia.
The armed struggle in large Ukrainian cities is generally difficult to predict. It is common knowledge that the big city is the best battlefield for the weak and less technically advanced side of the armed conflict.
Serious experts emphasize that in an urban area it is possible not only to concentrate a grouping of thousands and even tens of thousands of fighters, but also to hide it from the superior firepower of the enemy and to supply it with material resources for a long time and make up for losses in people and equipment. Neither mountains, nor forests, nor jungles today provide such an opportunity.
Experts are convinced that the urban environment helps the defenders, slows down the movement of the attackers, allows you to place a record number of fighters per unit area, and compensates for the lag in forces and technologies.
The Russian army in the course of a hypothetical war with Ukraine may meet another Stalingrad and Grozny.
CONCLUSIONS
In general, there will be no Ukrainian blitzkrieg.
The statements of some experts such as “The Russian army will defeat most of the units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in 30-40 minutes”, “Russia is able to defeat Ukraine in 10 minutes in the event of a full-scale war”, “Russia will defeat Ukraine in eight minutes” have no solid grounds.
An armed conflict with Ukraine is currently fundamentally not in Russia's national interests.
Therefore, it is best for some overexcited Russian experts to forget about their fantasies of hatred.
And in order to prevent further reputational losses, they should forget about them.
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