You're a peanut if you think Russian soldiers returning to Russia instead of getting away with stealing Ukrainian land is "capitulating to Ukraine" and worth launching nukes over.
Russia illegally invaded a sovereign country and will soon fck off back home with their tail between their legs, a court summons in one hand and a massive bill of reparations in the other.
You clearly have no idea of what the Russia plan is going forward.
Putin is prepping the Russian citizens for a drawn out conflict. Every time there is a strike on Russian soil it helps Putin to rally the Russian population against the Ukrainians as it gives him more reasons to say that the Ukrainians under the US/NATO leadership are laying the groundwork for invasion. So every strike unites the Russian population a little more against Ukraine.
The Russians are also not planning on withdrawing any time soon from Ukraine. The earlier withdrawals was to strengthen their positions that they could easily hold without over-stretching their supply routes and exposing them to risk from artillery strikes. The Russians are currently fortifying their positions and reinforcing/restocking/refueling their forces. And likely replacing all those paintball armor plates they issued.
They will continue to strike key Ukrainian infrastructure in order to turn the morale of the Ukrainian people against their own units. You will be surprised how a person will turn against their protector if they see themselves as suffering and struggling from day to day but they see their protectors with food, warmth and water. There is only so much foreign aid that can come into Ukraine and be effectively distributed.
Further to this, by drawing it out Putin is relying on war fatigue to exhaust the Ukrainian troops who are out in the field and for the international community to start struggling through their own problems this winter. If the conflict continues for the next year then the next winter will be even worse for Europe. We may even see a couple of governments face extreme unhappiness from their own citizenry, which is already starting to set in.
As per recent intelligence reports, Russia is still producing missiles domestically even with sanctions which is probably the reason for the next tranche of sanctions as announced. It also seem that North Korea is indeed supplying parts for the manufacture of missiles as well. So Russia is just going to keep stocking up over the winter months while capitulating on their current positions.
Come late winter or early spring that is likely when Russia will go on the offensive. Expect much larger missile/drone strikes. We will likely also start seeing the introduction of other weapons such as the SU-57 as well as the kh-69. Likely there will be more hypersonics used as well but for critical targets since they are virtually unstoppable and are rumoured to have been used early in the conflict/war to hit an underground armory.
This thing is long from done and with the support among common citizens in a lot of the countries starting to dwindle I cannot see how this will end favourably for Ukraine. The only few scenarios that can change the course of these things would be, Putin meeting a "tragic end", Putin being overthrown (although there is no guarantee that this would lead to hostilities stopping as whoever replaces him may like the look of the big red button), an unprecedented turn on Putin by the Duma (this will likely cause the previous point) or a massive military offensive by Ukraine (but this will likely need to involve virtually every Ukrainian/international legion soldier to move to the South and East of Ukraine and leave Ukraine vulnerable in the North).
If Ukraine sit back and wait they are signing their own fate since the sanctions against Russia will weaken over time as alternatives are found/developed and other countries/parties will pick up the spare capacity for Russian gas and oil sales. Don't be surprised if there isn't new interest in ESPO being expanded.
Sign up with Google
