Russo-Ukrainian War - 2022 Edition - Part 7

[viper13]

According to Russian dissidents, Putin understands that if he hits a NATO city St Petersburg will cease to exist. Other alternatives I heard were that he personally would be targetted and eliminated by the Americans and they have him 24/7 in their sights with a nuclear strike. If they hit in Ukraine, NATO will have to respond and eliminate all Russian forces in Ukraine, Kaliningrad, Belarus and Black Sea.

The assassination of a head of state is against international law so they would need to wait till the "cancer" does their job for them. If there was a deliberate attempt to take out Putin it would likely invoke a serious response as well and the US knows this. I doubt even Putin is crazy enough to strike a NATO city but also knows that NATO will not escalate the likelihood of a NATO/Russia conflict either which is why he may use a few smaller tactical nukes on military only targets. If he hits civilians with a nuke it's a game changer. That said, he does have other large ordinances available to himself as well which would be just as devastating but not nuclear but that would mean putting some bombers at risk.

 

[Major Boredom]

bingo.

Your article is deceptive as most of yours are .
1. Putin is advocating a 1st strike policy, which the west does not have

A policy is way different from a concept...
The policy is based on 1st strike concept which both countries acknowledged all the way back to the cold war.

 

[Major Boredom]

The assassination of a head of state is against international law so they would need to wait till the "cancer" does their job for them.

Which international law ?

 

[ToxicBunny]

The assassination of a head of state is against international law so they would need to wait till the "cancer" does their job for them. If there was a deliberate attempt to take out Putin it would likely invoke a serious response as well and the US knows this. I doubt even Putin is crazy enough to strike a NATO city but also knows that NATO will not escalate the likelihood of a NATO/Russia conflict either which is why he may use a few smaller tactical nukes on military only targets. If he hits civilians with a nuke it's a game changer. That said, he does have other large ordinances available to himself as well which would be just as devastating but not nuclear but that would mean putting some bombers at risk.

Oh you mean like all those international laws Russia has broken by invading Ukraine?

 

[BBSA]

Did you guys get Cosmik banned from here? Please let him back in.

And @NarrowBandFtw

 

[BBSA]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1602925941164232704

 

[Blu82]

The assassination of a head of state is against international law so they would need to wait till the "cancer" does their job for them. If there was a deliberate attempt to take out Putin it would likely invoke a serious response as well and the US knows this. I doubt even Putin is crazy enough to strike a NATO city but also knows that NATO will not escalate the likelihood of a NATO/Russia conflict either which is why he may use a few smaller tactical nukes on military only targets. If he hits civilians with a nuke it's a game changer. That said, he does have other large ordinances available to himself as well which would be just as devastating but not nuclear but that would mean putting some bombers at risk.

Tactical nukes are not as effective as the people threatening to use them think. Planners looked at using them during the Gulf Wars and decided not to as the bang for buck benefit is not there.

 

[viper13]

Oh you mean like all those international laws Russia has broken by invading Ukraine?

The problem is that the US and NATO cannot condemn Russia's actions if they themselves break the laws. They may not like it but their hands are tied. To be honest, if they did take out Putin then that would trigger a full response by the Russians as they would see it as confirmation of everything they have been saying about the west wanting to destroy Russia. The only way that Putin can be taken out is from within as that would not invoke such a response, however, may lead to a full out coup which in Russia is an even more terrifying thought.

 

[Kaapie]

I imagine they must be studying the hell out of their Libyan playbook to see what can be applied.

 

[WollieVerstege]

Tactical nukes are not as effective as the people threatening to use them think. Planners looked at using them during the Gulf Wars and decided not to as the bang for buck benefit is not there.

And the resulting PR disaster from something like that will not go well for Russia.

 

[MiW]

Peaceful Russia never ever attacked anyone, they only defend their selves.

 

[ToxicBunny]

The problem is that the US and NATO cannot condemn Russia's actions if they themselves break the laws. They may not like it but their hands are tied. To be honest, if they did take out Putin then that would trigger a full response by the Russians as they would see it as confirmation of everything they have been saying about the west wanting to destroy Russia. The only way that Putin can be taken out is from within as that would not invoke such a response, however, may lead to a full out coup which in Russia is an even more terrifying thought.

I don't disagree in the slightest, but it's not the retaliation by Russia that would keep the West awake at night, but the descent into WW3 which that event would precipitate.

Russia are at best a pisspoor paper tiger.

 

[greg0205]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1602504603207176192

My name is Greg and I approve this message.

 

[viper13]

I don't disagree in the slightest, but it's not the retaliation by Russia that would keep the West awake at night, but the descent into WW3 which that event would precipitate.

Russia are at best a pisspoor paper tiger.

It's the dramatic escalation to WW3 that I'm referring to as well. I don't think the threat of Russian invasion is keeping anyone awake at night as they have been drastically weakened by this whole thing. It does seem to have the undesirable side-effect that it has gotten Russia to start talking about creating new modern weapons and investing again into these weapons developments. So we do have a bigger problem down the line though. If left unchecked that would mean we end up with a Russia in 20 years time that is hostile towards the west but has since developed an arsenal which is truly terrifying and not relying on nuclear weapons. Heck, we will likely see massive developments in the drone front; both aerial as well as terrestrial. I'm not too worried about naval drones as they are easy subverted by simply floating fishing nets.

We do sit with a bit of a conundrum though since how do we get out of this thing without Russia building up a new force for the future but still stop this thing going any further right now and dragging other countries into the conflict. Nobody wants escalation but if they beat the Russians back to the pre-Feb borders then we will have a bigger problem further down the line since Russia will use it as an excuse to pump money and research into weapons development (and possibly spark a new cold war) and to rally their populace behind the idea that the west invasion is only days away.

As much as it will be what everybody is calling to avoid the only viable way out of this thing may be to negotiate with Russia and give up the claimed territories that Russia "annexed". Then get Ukraine (the part that's left), Finland and Sweden into NATO asap so that Russia cannot try to expand further on that front.

 

[WollieVerstege]

I don't disagree in the slightest, but it's not the retaliation by Russia that would keep the West awake at night, but the descent into WW3 which that event would precipitate.

Russia are at best a pisspoor paper tiger.

Agreed, but who would be fighting in WW3?

No-one is going to step into the breach on behalf of Russia, except maybe Belarus. Although, I think Lukashenko will be ousted before the first bullet is fired. It will also take Russia decades just to get back to where it is today, while the "west" is already accelerating weapons development.

The only country that even remotely has a chance of triggering WW3 in the short to medium term is China and they are not going to do it over Russia. They might try something with Taiwan, but Taiwan is no Ukraine and any attack would be a brutal bloody mess for both sides. From what I have read China would much rather attempt a friendlier approach along the lines of a coerced referendum.

 

[MiW]

 

[Major Boredom]

The problem is that the US and NATO cannot condemn Russia's actions if they themselves break the laws. They may not like it but their hands are tied. To be honest, if they did take out Putin then that would trigger a full response by the Russians as they would see it as confirmation of everything they have been saying about the west wanting to destroy Russia. The only way that Putin can be taken out is from within as that would not invoke such a response, however, may lead to a full out coup which in Russia is an even more terrifying thought.

Still havent answered which international law forbids assassination of a nations leader.
The USA have their own law which forbids any US citizen from assasinating a world leader, but that isnt an international law.

 

[MiW]

Day 293, December 13, 2022. Summary of #Arestovych and #Feygin broadcast • WarTranslated

Summary of the daily livestream with Aleksey Arestovych, kindly brought to you by Janat: @Janat_H1 Frontline Update No significant changes on the frontline. RU focuses its efforts on the Maryinka-Bakhmut and Kreminna-Svatove directions. RU units of recruited inmates and the mobilized regularly...

wartranslated.com

Frontline Update

No significant changes on the frontline. RU focuses its efforts on the Maryinka-Bakhmut and Kreminna-Svatove directions. RU units of recruited inmates and the mobilized regularly attack UA positions. Change of tactics from RU army: attacks by small mobile groups of infantry; small units are easier to manage and motivate. Battalion attacks are long gone.

A solution that is impossible in developed countries is the sanitary cleansing of the Russian Federation from its prisoners. By amassing the frontlines with tens of thousands of inmates, RU gains time to prepare its professional reserves. By January-February, Russia’s restored units will likely attempt to seize the initiative on the fronts.

Related to this is the media hysteria about the “imminent” attack from Belarus, which began checks of combat readiness and whose special forces advanced toward the border. However, only 12 armored personnel carriers were spotted. This is just a diversion tactic, according to Arestovych, to tie up UA forces in the North and not transfer them to the East and South.

Weapons

Pentagon found no cases of misuse of Western weapons supplied to UA. The issue is mostly raised out of the confrontation between Republicans and Democrats. Despite multiple accusations that the supplied weapons have been illegally sold, there’s been no proof. UA is open to inspection and takes military equipment accounting seriously.

According to CNN, the US may transfer the Patriot air defense system to UA in the coming weeks. UA military will be trained on their use at a base in Germany. Arestovych views this measure as inevitable; the question is the delivery time. Patriots will significantly strengthen UA air defense and reduce the effectiveness of Russian attacks and massive raids. But UA also awaits the decision on the supply of offensive weapons to begin liberating its territory.

Zaporizhye NPP

Zaporizhye NPP: an agreement is possible on the withdrawal of heavy weapons by the Russian army before the end of the year. The question is whether it will be previously imposed penalties or a postponement of future sanctions that is discussed with Moscow.

Hungary

According to Arestovych, Hungary’s blocking the introduction of the 9th package of anti-Russian sanctions is deeply immoral against the background of the genocide of Ukrainians and may result in the country’s withdrawal from the EU and NATO. The position of Hungary’s leadership is clear; they tried to torpedo aid to Ukraine, which ensures the survival of UA civilian population; Hungary blackmails EU to obtain preferences and plays complementary for Moscow, designated by NATO as its main threat. Hungary’s collaborative politics go against the EU and NATO efforts.

Confiscation of Assets

The UK is considering a mechanism to use frozen Russian assets to rebuild Ukraine. UA’s victory and weakening of the Kremlin will allow the UK to regain its position as a superpower. They are now debating, discussing, and probing public opinion; this will take time, but when they reach a consensus and begin confiscating assets, other states will follow their lead.

The process of alienating and seizing UA properties owned by the Russian State Duma deputies will also happen in Ukraine in due time.

Putin’s address canceled

Putin might not address the federal assembly or appear at the annual press conference. Arestovych expects no annual speeches by Putin in December: the dictator-terrorist has nothing to present to RU population at this point nor to offer any bright prospects and promises of RU’s retaliatory measures. Putin cannot report any encouraging figures; they all show downward trends. RU is waiting for any diplomatic and military achievements before Putin addresses the assembly and the public.

Another reason for not making public addresses is his deteriorating physical state. Arestovych explained his comment from an interview with Dmitri Gordon during a stroll at a cemetery: it was not a forecast but an assumption that Putin might die in April 2023. They discussed the end of the war. Arestovych expects the active fighting to fade by mid-summer unless a “black swan” event (Putin’s death) takes place earlier, say in April. In that case, the war will end much sooner.

RU planned offensive

The Russian military-political command is trying to seize the initiative at the front. Arestovych expects them to begin in mid-December and attempt to gain territory by February, to present something to the population on the anniversary of the war. This offensive will be drawn-out, similar to what they did in Severodonetsk and Lysychansk and are doing in Bakhmut as they lack resources for a quick offensive. The plans are there but may not be realized. UA is not going to wait and watch.

Partners’ Support

UA informs its partners of these developments, which will lead to more aid. G7 shows unwavering support to UA and states that Putin will be personally held accountable for the war.

 

[AlmightyBender]

It's the dramatic escalation to WW3 that I'm referring to as well. I don't think the threat of Russian invasion is keeping anyone awake at night as they have been drastically weakened by this whole thing. It does seem to have the undesirable side-effect that it has gotten Russia to start talking about creating new modern weapons and investing again into these weapons developments. So we do have a bigger problem down the line though. If left unchecked that would mean we end up with a Russia in 20 years time that is hostile towards the west but has since developed an arsenal which is truly terrifying and not relying on nuclear weapons. Heck, we will likely see massive developments in the drone front; both aerial as well as terrestrial. I'm not too worried about naval drones as they are easy subverted by simply floating fishing nets.

We do sit with a bit of a conundrum though since how do we get out of this thing without Russia building up a new force for the future but still stop this thing going any further right now and dragging other countries into the conflict. Nobody wants escalation but if they beat the Russians back to the pre-Feb borders then we will have a bigger problem further down the line since Russia will use it as an excuse to pump money and research into weapons development (and possibly spark a new cold war) and to rally their populace behind the idea that the west invasion is only days away.

As much as it will be what everybody is calling to avoid the only viable way out of this thing may be to negotiate with Russia and give up the claimed territories that Russia "annexed". Then get Ukraine (the part that's left), Finland and Sweden into NATO asap so that Russia cannot try to expand further on that front.

No. Giving them anything is in fact what will encourage Russia to escalate further in the future.

They don't deserve an inch.

If they want to go North Korea then they are going to find themselves sanctioned into the dark ages, which would be appropriate cause that is exactly how they are behaving. Good luck developing weapons technology in isolation when they couldn't even do it in the last 30 years with Western support.

Their only hope for a prosperous future is to:
1) get rid of Putin and ALL his goons
2) complete withdrawal from Ukraine including Crimes
3) Reparations and rebuilding of Ukraine
4) Accountability and ownership of their warcrimes
5) complete withdrawal from all territories they are meddling in
6) drop the national superiority and victim complex

This would be the first steps to rehabilitating a broken nation in much the same way that Germany and Japan were lifted up post WW2. That is what I want for Russia.

 

[MiW]

Zelenskyy: Air defence shot down all “Shaheds” launched at Kyiv Oblast, I am proud

Ukrainian air defences have shot down all 13 Russian Shahed kamikaze drones that attacked Kyiv Oblast and the capital on the morning of 14 December.

www.pravda.com.ua