Russo-Ukrainian War - 2022 Edition - Part 7

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Major Boredom

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viper13 said:
It's the dramatic escalation to WW3 that I'm referring to as well. I don't think the threat of Russian invasion is keeping anyone awake at night as they have been drastically weakened by this whole thing. It does seem to have the undesirable side-effect that it has gotten Russia to start talking about creating new modern weapons and investing again into these weapons developments. So we do have a bigger problem down the line though. If left unchecked that would mean we end up with a Russia in 20 years time that is hostile towards the west but has since developed an arsenal which is truly terrifying and not relying on nuclear weapons. Heck, we will likely see massive developments in the drone front; both aerial as well as terrestrial. I'm not too worried about naval drones as they are easy subverted by simply floating fishing nets.

We do sit with a bit of a conundrum though since how do we get out of this thing without Russia building up a new force for the future but still stop this thing going any further right now and dragging other countries into the conflict. Nobody wants escalation but if they beat the Russians back to the pre-Feb borders then we will have a bigger problem further down the line since Russia will use it as an excuse to pump money and research into weapons development (and possibly spark a new cold war) and to rally their populace behind the idea that the west invasion is only days away.

As much as it will be what everybody is calling to avoid the only viable way out of this thing may be to negotiate with Russia and give up the claimed territories that Russia "annexed". Then get Ukraine (the part that's left), Finland and Sweden into NATO asap so that Russia cannot try to expand further on that front.
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There are other issues coming in.
Russia's better ties with the likes of Iran is causing some beating hearts in the middle east.
Russian whether it likes it or not has set itself back 20 years. Noone in the west will invest for quite some time after what Russia has done. It is easy to say pump money in, but where will that money come from.
And if the lives of citizens of Russia stay crap , then internal rebellion is a very real threat.
Also after their latest actions I can see Nato getting a lot bigger fast.

The one good thing coming from this war is that alternative energy is getting a massive boost. It may not completely kill of fossil fuels, but I think it is going to make one hell of a dent in the long term.
The future holds a bright light for high tech countries. Unfortuantly Russia is not one of these. Most of its economy has been raw materials and in the vast majority of that oil and its sub products.
 
tetrasect

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Major Boredom said:
Still havent answered which international law forbids assassination of a nations leader.
The USA have their own law which forbids any US citizen from assasinating a world leader, but that isnt an international law.
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Pretty sure international law forbids assassination full stop.
 
ToxicBunny

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viper13 said:
It's the dramatic escalation to WW3 that I'm referring to as well. I don't think the threat of Russian invasion is keeping anyone awake at night as they have been drastically weakened by this whole thing. It does seem to have the undesirable side-effect that it has gotten Russia to start talking about creating new modern weapons and investing again into these weapons developments. So we do have a bigger problem down the line though. If left unchecked that would mean we end up with a Russia in 20 years time that is hostile towards the west but has since developed an arsenal which is truly terrifying and not relying on nuclear weapons. Heck, we will likely see massive developments in the drone front; both aerial as well as terrestrial. I'm not too worried about naval drones as they are easy subverted by simply floating fishing nets.

We do sit with a bit of a conundrum though since how do we get out of this thing without Russia building up a new force for the future but still stop this thing going any further right now and dragging other countries into the conflict. Nobody wants escalation but if they beat the Russians back to the pre-Feb borders then we will have a bigger problem further down the line since Russia will use it as an excuse to pump money and research into weapons development (and possibly spark a new cold war) and to rally their populace behind the idea that the west invasion is only days away.

As much as it will be what everybody is calling to avoid the only viable way out of this thing may be to negotiate with Russia and give up the claimed territories that Russia "annexed". Then get Ukraine (the part that's left), Finland and Sweden into NATO asap so that Russia cannot try to expand further on that front.
Click to expand...
You mean like their last modernisation program from the 2000s?

Yeah no, I doubt the west is worried about that either tbh, and Russia doesn't deserve an inch of negotiation, they must fsck off back to their own borders and pay to rebuild Ukraine.
 
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AlmightyBender said:
No. Giving them anything is in fact what will encourage Russia to escalate further in the future.

They don't deserve an inch.

If they want to go North Korea then they are going to find themselves sanctioned into the dark ages, which would be appropriate cause that is exactly how they are behaving. Good luck developing weapons technology in isolation when they couldn't even do it in the last 30 years with Western support.

Their only hope for a prosperous future is to:
1) get rid of Putin and ALL his goons
2) complete withdrawal from Ukraine including Crimes
3) Reparations and rebuilding of Ukraine
4) Accountability and ownership of their warcrimes
5) complete withdrawal from all territories they are meddling in
6) drop the national superiority and victim complex

This would be the first steps to rehabilitating a broken nation in much the same way that Germany and Japan were lifted up post WW2. That is what I want for Russia.
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You need to remember that Russia did very well with weapons development when they were the USSR and they were under complete sanction. The Russia of the last 30 years is a different animal and there seems to be a bit of a movement to return the days of the USSR. Russia will always find ways around sanctions, they always have and always will. They will have nothing but time on their side to build up, just like Germany did post WW1. They too were under strict control not to build up a formidable armed forces but they did anyway. Similarly, Russia will do Russian things and build up what Russia wants. I'm just cautious on what nightmare weapons they may dream up when they have serious funding and commitment to research and development. Remember, Russia aren't a bunch of cavemen and actually know quite a bit about this little thing called science. Don't make the mistake of thinking that all Russians are the vodka drinking idiots that call into fires.

There is no way that I see Russia giving in to any of the items on the list you put there. Especially number 3. That would be the ultimate slap in the Russians face. Expect this thing to drag on till it either escalates uncontrollably or Russia gets what Russia wants.
 
ForceFate

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Kaapie said:
I imagine they must be studying the hell out of their Libyan playbook to see what can be applied.

R.46064ca52d94bc302838aaeb298e96c1
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You know Russia voted for the operation in Libya to go ahead, don't you? South Africa as well.
 
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viper13

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Major Boredom said:
Still havent answered which international law forbids assassination of a nations leader.
The USA have their own law which forbids any US citizen from assasinating a world leader, but that isnt an international law.
Click to expand...
You kidding right? There are actually many articles that speak to this (although it needs legal interpretation). Be cognizant that assassinations are also called targeted-killings by some but they really are not the same thing. But to help you out there are a few statutes that speak to the right of life:
- article 2 of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights
- article 3 of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights
- article 6 of the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights
- article 26 of the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights
- the Fourth Geneva convention

Also read article 1 of the Principles on the Effective Prevention and Investigation of Extra-legal, Arbitrary and Summary Executions which clearly prohibits invoking extra-ordinary measures to warrant an assassination such as wartime. Technically, the targeting of Russian officers is actually a violation as well which Ukraine was bragging about at the beginning of this whole conflict.

So to answer you, yes it is a violation of international law not just the US, however, they do tend to ignore their own rules with targeting individuals that they deem hostile/terrorists/etc. but that is a discussion for another day.
 
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viper13

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Major Boredom said:
There are other issues coming in.
Russia's better ties with the likes of Iran is causing some beating hearts in the middle east.
Russian whether it likes it or not has set itself back 20 years. Noone in the west will invest for quite some time after what Russia has done. It is easy to say pump money in, but where will that money come from.
And if the lives of citizens of Russia stay crap , then internal rebellion is a very real threat.
Also after their latest actions I can see Nato getting a lot bigger fast.

The one good thing coming from this war is that alternative energy is getting a massive boost. It may not completely kill of fossil fuels, but I think it is going to make one hell of a dent in the long term.
The future holds a bright light for high tech countries. Unfortuantly Russia is not one of these. Most of its economy has been raw materials and in the vast majority of that oil and its sub products.
Click to expand...
Yup, renewables have gotten a MAJOR boost thanks to the gas problem in Europe. But there are a lot of developing countries that are going to pick up the slack and Russia will still keep pumping oil and gas and still keep making profits like they have before. The difference is Russia will try and get that whole national pride thing going again that they had in the 70's and 80's. That carried them through a lot of much tougher times.

The Russian people will adjust and get used to not having McDonalds or Prada. These will be replaced with their own versions. China will eye Russia as a nice juicy new market as well and sanctions won't detract from that either.

We do not want to be sitting here in 20 years time facing a Russian army that are all autonomous and can be produced in the 1000's overnight. Or to face weapons that have no moving parts but release unbelievable amounts of energy that virtually vaporizes whatever it is aimed at. Or a weapon that has an effectiveness window of 24 hours but can be deployed to a hostile area and render all combatants (organic material) incapacitated allowing for easy capture/disposal (not talking chemical or biological weapons either). And these are just some of the ideas in the west so not even thinking about the nightmares that the Russians can come up with over a bottle of Count Pushkin.
 
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viper13

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Major Boredom said:
You would be surprised. If it was international law why would various countries have specific laws against it. USA and Israel being 2 of them

Interesting read

Loading…

digitalcommons.law.mercer.edu

and

Loading…

lieber.westpoint.edu
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I read that one before as well but it is restricted only to the law of armed conflict. But here is a conclusion published by the Yale Journal of International Law (one of the most respected law publications you will find) which encompasses a much broader set of references and interpretation:

Loading…

core.ac.uk
 
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Major Boredom

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viper13 said:
You kidding right? There are actually many articles that speak to this (although it needs legal interpretation). Be cognizant that assassinations are also called targeted-killings by some but they really are not the same thing. But to help you out there are a few statutes that speak to the right of life:
- article 2 of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights
- article 3 of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights
- article 6 of the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights
- article 26 of the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights
- the Fourth Geneva convention

Also read article 1 of the Principles on the Effective Prevention and Investigation of Extra-legal, Arbitrary and Summary Executions which clearly prohibits invoking extra-ordinary measures to warrant an assassination such as wartime. Technically, the targeting of Russian officers is actually a violation as well which Ukraine was bragging about at the beginning of this whole conflict.

So to answer you, yes it is a violation of international law not just the US, however, they do tend to ignore their own rules with targeting individuals that they deem hostile/terrorists/etc. but that is a discussion for another day.
Click to expand...
Just keep in mind the CIC ( president or whatever you want to call him ) is not a civilian


4th Geneva -> Revolves arround Civilians
Article 26 -> Discrimination. Doesnt apply to the current topic
Article 6 -> Right of life , but this is not covering a war scenario with a member of the military service
Article 3 -> Same comment as above
Article 2 -> Same comment as above

Havent seen anything yet that prohibits assasinations in the context being discussed

Go read those 2 articles I posted. Makes for interesting reading.

In actual fact the the laws that the usa and israel ( in this example ) have in place talk to the recommendations made
 
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Major Boredom

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viper13 said:
Yup, renewables have gotten a MAJOR boost thanks to the gas problem in Europe. But there are a lot of developing countries that are going to pick up the slack and Russia will still keep pumping oil and gas and still keep making profits like they have before. The difference is Russia will try and get that whole national pride thing going again that they had in the 70's and 80's. That carried them through a lot of much tougher times.

The Russian people will adjust and get used to not having McDonalds or Prada. These will be replaced with their own versions. China will eye Russia as a nice juicy new market as well and sanctions won't detract from that either.

We do not want to be sitting here in 20 years time facing a Russian army that are all autonomous and can be produced in the 1000's overnight. Or to face weapons that have no moving parts but release unbelievable amounts of energy that virtually vaporizes whatever it is aimed at. Or a weapon that has an effectiveness window of 24 hours but can be deployed to a hostile area and render all combatants (organic material) incapacitated allowing for easy capture/disposal (not talking chemical or biological weapons either). And these are just some of the ideas in the west so not even thinking about the nightmares that the Russians can come up with over a bottle of Count Pushkin.
Click to expand...
I think you are overestimating badly. Certainly some african countries will buy product.
But I think Russia will be down in the bottom of the list with those same african countries in 20 years time.

I still maintain Russia may have bigger problems than the west. She has shown how weak she actually is.
 
Itsa Trap

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viper13 said:
Yup, renewables have gotten a MAJOR boost thanks to the gas problem in Europe. But there are a lot of developing countries that are going to pick up the slack and Russia will still keep pumping oil and gas and still keep making profits like they have before. The difference is Russia will try and get that whole national pride thing going again that they had in the 70's and 80's. That carried them through a lot of much tougher times.

The Russian people will adjust and get used to not having McDonalds or Prada. These will be replaced with their own versions. China will eye Russia as a nice juicy new market as well and sanctions won't detract from that either.

We do not want to be sitting here in 20 years time facing a Russian army that are all autonomous and can be produced in the 1000's overnight. Or to face weapons that have no moving parts but release unbelievable amounts of energy that virtually vaporizes whatever it is aimed at. Or a weapon that has an effectiveness window of 24 hours but can be deployed to a hostile area and render all combatants (organic material) incapacitated allowing for easy capture/disposal (not talking chemical or biological weapons either). And these are just some of the ideas in the west so not even thinking about the nightmares that the Russians can come up with over a bottle of Count Pushkin.
Click to expand...
You seem to have a rather inflated idea of their capabilities. If anything, their supposedly superior stealth fighter being absent from the theater of war, similarly their super tank, not to even go into their losses over the last year of what was supposed to be at the very worst case scenario a blitzkrieg win done within a month (if not a couple of days / weeks), has shown them to be much less than the image they project.
 
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