Russo-Ukrainian War - 2022 Edition - Part 8

Unhappy438

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Cius

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Would love to see a MYBB Poll on what people think will happen when the mud dries and the counteroffensive begins. Options could be:

Russia major advance
Russia moderate gains
Stalemate
Ukrainian moderate advances
Ukrainian major advances

Personally I think May will see big Ukrainian success.
 

MiW

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The Russian invaders are planning to involve prisoners from Belarus convicted of minor crimes in construction work in the temporarily occupied city of Mariupol.

Source: Radio Liberty, referring to Petro Andriushchenko, the adviser to the mayor of Mariupol

Quote from Andriushchenko: "Just yesterday, we received additional information that it had been decided that not only Russians would be there. They are going to bring people who have been convicted of minor crimes from Belarus in the near future, so that they can also be engaged in construction work on the territory of Mariupol."

Details: He said that Russian construction workers, who are now arriving en masse in the occupied city, no longer hide the fact that they plan to live in Mariupol in the future.

For this purpose, Russia has even launched a mortgage programme since February that provides for obtaining housing at two per cent interest.


According to Andriushchenko, Moscow has already held 40 tenders for construction in temporarily occupied cities.

The adviser to the mayor of Mariupol did not say under what conditions prisoners from Belarus will be attracted.
 

Unhappy438

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Would love to see a MYBB Poll on what people think will happen when the mud dries and the counteroffensive begins. Options could be:

Russia major advance
Russia moderate gains
Stalemate
Ukrainian moderate advances
Ukrainian major advances

Personally I think May will see big Ukrainian success.

What do you classify as moderate and major? Like do you have square km's or important districts? I imagine thats hard to quantify.
 

Matata

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FtZzGX0XgAMg1Um.jpg
 

Cius

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What do you classify as moderate and major? Like do you have square km's or important districts? I imagine thats hard to quantify.
Moderate success would be taking a few minor settlements. Major advance is taking bigger towns and cities and significant territory as we saw last year in the North. Not sure I want to quantify more than that. The recent gains of Russia around bakhmut would be minor advance for Russia as an example.
 

Unhappy438

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Moderate success would be taking a few minor settlements. Major advance is taking bigger towns and cities and significant territory as we saw last year in the North. Not sure I want to quantify more than that. The recent gains of Russia around bakhmut would be minor advance for Russia as an example.

Ok, so personally i dont see a similar advance as Kharkiv for either side in the coming months. After the rainy season in May but more likely closer to June when Ukraine does launch its counter offensive and assuming its in the Zaporizhzhia region, the best i think they could hope for would be taking Tokmak.

However this is subject to change depending on what the US announces as aid over the next few weeks. I said this many weeks ago that the US has spent a lot on logistics and training to set up Ukraine with Bradleys and Strykers but hasnt given them that many, so by this point i expected more announcements for further deliveries. That hasnt happened but perhaps they are staying mum on the subject and have been training and building extra donations in already.

Another 100-200 bradleys, 100-200 strykers and 300 m113 would do absolute wonders for the Ukrainians, until that starts happening im going with a very moderate success for Ukraine with Russia potentially also taking Bakhmut at some point.
 

rambo919

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Would love to see a MYBB Poll on what people think will happen when the mud dries and the counteroffensive begins. Options could be:

Russia major advance
Russia moderate gains
Stalemate
Ukrainian moderate advances
Ukrainian major advances

Personally I think May will see big Ukrainian success.
Then start one
 

The Trutherizer

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The Crimean bridge cost 3.7 billion dollars, do you really think it would have cost that much extra to add in a few pipes to carry water?

Not to mention the following...

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Crimean_Canal





The canal was blocked in 2014, Crimea got along just fine in the last 5 years before the invasion. I think the Crimea water thing might have been a nice bonus, but it was a problem that had already been solved.
By the logic that the water supply was such a big deal, then it would have made sense for the EU to invade Russia and annexe their oil and gas fields after they used access to oil and gas to try and influence the EU and later cut the EU off. By Russian logic that is.

No. The EU implemented saving measures, and found alternative sources, including alternative energy technologies. In the end they turned Russia's strategy against themselves by cutting Russia off even more than, and way before, Russia cut the EU off. And they will have save hundreds of billions of Euros by mid century from the changes they're making. Tens of billion (EU) a year.

As you said a pipeline would not have been a major challenge. There are some substantial dams within 50km of the Kerch strait on the Russian side. Crimea is also not entirely without water. It has many small to largish lakes and rivers. You'd only need to pipe water in during an emergency drought situation. Also the Black sea is only half as saline as the wider oceans out there. Desalination is not much more challenging than some boreholes out there. Russia has energy to spare for such purposes. So... Spend trillions on a war and risk the wrath of the Western World? Or a few billion on drought mitigation? Crimea only has a population of 2 million. Cape Town has about 2.5X more people living in it. It's about the population of Soweto.

All in all the water supply theory is weak. Crimea isn't even Russian territory. They should be taking it as a given that they only have it temporarily. But, there's something wrong with Putin's head.

It's not even as if Crimea was inaccessible to Russians before 2014. Millions of Russians likely went on holiday there or in the rest of Ukraine during Summer months. Many, many thousands probably lived there most of the time. Russia had a navy base there, which nobody had a problem with for as long as Russia didn't make an absolute pain of itself as with Yanukovych. But it seems Russia just can't be happy with a good thing. No. They have to have the bread buttered on both sides, always it seems. Well... No.
 
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MiW

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The Russian State Duma supported the duplication of traditional summons for military service in a digital form in three readings at once.

Source: Russian state-owned news agency RIA Novosti

Details: The changes provide that summons can be sent to Russians in writing with a receipt, by registered mail with a return receipt, as well as digitally.

In the case of a digital summons, it will be considered delivered from the moment it is placed in the personal account.

People who received summons in any form, even electronic, will be prohibited from leaving Russia until their visit to a military commissariat.

In addition, Russians who did not come within 20 days of receiving the summons are banned from driving a car.
 

tetrasect

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Lol, the US knew about Russias invasion when most of their politicians didnt, in fact only micro members very inner circle knew, so what does that tell us?

I've been wondering if this leak is psyops or genuine.

Would be pretty clever, cause even if Russia suspected it might be fake they would still have to act on the information just in case it is real...
 
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