I completely agree with you. Passions running high.
OK, let's agree on the following (if possible):
- Putin (not Russians) should never have attacked Ukraine (irrespective of whether he was provoked or not)
- let's also agree that Azov is now part of government forces and is there to protect homeland (irrespective of any possible past)
- let's agree that anything coming out of Russia is propaganda
- let's agree that there are rogue units on both sides causing atrocities not relevant to war (soldiers fighting each other)
- let's agree that none of the above has a true reflection on ordinary Russians nor Ukrainians
- and let's finally agree that the most important thing right now is the end of this conflict and safety of the people
Question is - how can this be achieved?
The simple answer might be for Russia to exit Ukraine. But we all know that is a very simplistic way of looking at it. Russia will never do that for a number of reasons. 1/ it would lose face. 2/ it would lose any power to negotiate either now or anytime in the future (isame reason other countries are in possession of nuclear weapons - not because they want to bomb others, but because it increases their power to negotiate on global scale).
So the answer to my question is to negotiate with Putin, but nobody is prepared to do that. The EU might be prepared to do that, but they are too under the spell of the US, which has not even taken part in the negotiation of the aid corridor.
I maintain it is in the best interest of the US to prolong this conflict for as long as possible as it weakens Russia position in global markets (attempts at de-dollarization, supply of energy etc).
This is where the incessant "marketing" of everything Russia bad is so dangerous. It distracts people away from the only possible way out - negotiation.
Mmmmm.....
Lets start with the US.
The US has its own issues to deal with right now.
Like it or not, they are at the mercy of Russian oil indirectly - if Russia sets an oil price thats quite low - as they are doing with India, (OPEC) and the US hit hard times. On the other hand, the US imports oil, despite its reserves - the higher the price of oil, the more the US pays for gas. Russia can somewhat control that. The price of gas in the us started the year at around $2,50 a gallon and went as high as $4.50.
That aside - the US is a country divided - the Dems and Republicans cant even agree what the price of eggs is right now.
I wont go into it, but for interest sake, take a look at OPEC members, and take a look at which countries Russia is talking to in the past few months. You may see a pattern.
Secondly, the US has inflationary issues. I have never seen prices like this before in the US. Its crazy times, and I am getting a raise shortly so benefitted me
The dollar and gold compete for safe havens. Russia puts a lot of gold onto the market. As people scurry for Dollar over gold, the dollar gets stronger which affects the US economy. The dollar right now is strong.
In short, the US has to either conquer Russia in such a way as to stop it from going to war, or to make it more reliant on the US. This will help the US economy, hence the proxy war story.
- Putin (not Russians) should never have attacked Ukraine (irrespective of whether he was provoked or not)
Having done some serious reading up - I believe this is Putins war - it is an imperialist ambition. Putin is himself the main oligarch and I believe he is out of touch with reality.
- let's also agree that Azov is now part of government forces and is there to protect homeland (irrespective of any possible past)
I have no doubt there are extremists on both RU and UA sides of this war. They will always be there. As the old saying goes, one mans terrorist is another's freedom fighter. I myself am an old soldier - war is still my business. I believed in my war that I fought, but part of me knows, I was probably on the wrong side of history.
- let's agree that anything coming out of Russia is propaganda
I honestly believe that state media in Russia is controlled. Is the US any better? Well, without getting into an argument, and being on the ground in the US - I can assure you that neither Fox nor CNN are the way to go.
The most neutral news I have found is NPR - which we don't hear much of outside the US - because it doesn't sensationalize the news. Personally, I will look at Indian news and compare that to TASS, RT and the plethora of western sources should I quote anything. Finding truth is difficult.
- let's agree that there are rogue units on both sides causing atrocities not relevant to war (soldiers fighting each other)
Agreed - one would be naïve to believe in only saints and only sinners. There are bound to be extremists in any country. As a species, our diversity is what makes humans both creative and destructive.
- let's agree that none of the above has a true reflection on ordinary Russians nor Ukrainians
I don't know what the ordinary person would be - I do know that there are Russians who dont support the war, and there are probably Ukrainians who would like to return the Russian Federation - but in the main, I do believe the Ukrainians want to be independent of Russia. The Maiden Revolution made that clear. Doing work in Romania with a company called Condor back then, I met Ukrainians skydivers who were part of the revolution. That same year 2015 or so, the Romanians marched against corruption. Both the marches and the revolution were driven by younger people.
As for Russia, I would imagine the younger generation, more affluent who have travelled an tasted the world are less likely to want to return to a USSR. I know the older Russians yearn to go back to this - its what they know. Putin is how old?
- and let's finally agree that the most important thing right now is the end of this conflict and safety of the people
Agreed.
Suffice to say, the Ukrainians are getting the worse end of the stick - its their cities that are being destroyed. Imagine, for a moment, that Ukraine bombed Moscow? Or, I dont know if you have kids, but imagine your kid had to go to war, knowing that the odds for survival were pretty low. I know the Russians are not too keen on this.
Question is - how can this be achieved?
If Russia were to exit Ukraine - what would become of Donbas and Crimea? Who would control the Black sea.
These are the key issues.
Lets think about Russia and Georgia at war - why Georgia? Its on the Black Sea, like Ukraine and oddly enough, Crimea. The stated reasons for the war could be anything - but the real reason
may be the Black Sea.
Who has Lavrov been spending time with lately regarding the grain issue - Turkey, which is, oddly enough also on the Black Sea, and has access to the straits. Did you see how Erdogan made Putin wait? Erdogan equally made NATO wait. He knows he is in control.
Russia wants access to that sea. Any settlement will have to give them some shoreline, or this will never end.
Medvedev - he is a puppet under Putin, but when was at the helm, he embraced Glasnost. It could well be he is the man in the wings?
Putin - will he be the guy at the helm in 2024? Maybe this is his swan song? Putin, is not only the premier of Russia, he also (allegedly) owns a portion of gazprom and Rosneft, - of the 50% traded shares, Putin has a hand, and thats why Navalny has seen the skids. Could Putin be setting his kids up for a brighter future? Its no secret, they hold plenty of his wealth.
So, Putin may abdicate in 2024, but if he runs - he will win. He has enacted a law allowing him to extend the two term rule.
At some point, the younger Russian generation will want change - they have tasted the worlds good things, like Mc Donalds, Coke, Hand M etc. There must be a demand or Russia wouldn't be trying to emulate them now.
Negotiations - well, there is no need for Russia to negotiate. They hold all the aces - the EU needs their power, India (South Africa) has indicated it will entertain cheap oil from Russia, Ukraine have little resources to wage war other than what NATO is providing ............... but this cant last forever and as such, this is now a war of attrition, that both sides feel they can win. Russia needs friends quickly if they want to go the long haul - hence the Lavrov safari.
Can NATO weaken Russia into capitulation - I think they are trying, but within the boundaries of future relations and not wanting to start a bigger conflict. When I see things like - "the US will fight to the last Ukrainian" - well those types of people are being silly, and as you have probably seen, I try to ignore them.
The fact is, the US and the EU would do better with a friendly Russia than a Russian enemy.
The Americans are unashamedly capitalist - and Russia is big consumer market.
Final thought, will the UA surrender - I don't believe so. The common Ukrainian has fought to be part of the EU. They don't want to give this up.
The oligarchs in the UA don't want to lose their wealth.
The UA doesn't want to lose its identity (and that's the whole language issue that's playing out).
These are my thoughts on the issue.
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