Russo-Ukrainian War - 2022 Edition - Part3

[MiW]

 

[MiW]

#Chechen dictator Ramzan #Kadyrov is by far the most popular political Telegram blogger in #Russia.

Blue dots are anti war, red pro ...Navalny 19th

 

[Mirai]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1540324884445859841

USSR also lost city after city, and then with American help rebounded, all the while Nazi Germany was becoming weaker and weaker.

Russia is pulling out unmodified T-64s which means they are scraping the barrel for equipment. How long can they keep this up with their arms industry suppressed by sanctions? And UKR will get more and more Western howitzer and HIMARS.

 

[MiW]

Comedy gold

 

[Mirai]

Same can be said of all the pro Ukrainian posters on here with their western propaganda and won't even mention the few that started posting twitter feeds from Ukraine months ago about how they are winning the war.

Or maybe we think attacking a sovereign country and sending 6 million women and children abroad as refugees is not decent. So we side with the defenders. You can side with the attackers because when that next home invasion or farm murder occurs, well it was just the imposition of a local gang's sphere of influence on some regular folks who just wanted to get on with their own lives. If they only gave their stuff away for free and allowed the gang to do what they wished the home invasion or murder would likely not have occurred.

By the way you're a bit of an older guy, not that old, but you're probably already on chronic meds. Research their origin and you'll see none of them were developed by the Russians because at the time they were developing communism, totalitarianism, improved ICBMs and tanks.

 

[Mirai]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1540034402461294592

Will they recuit those with swastikas and the like as they do in Ukraine. After all tatoos are just self expression and mean nothing?

What brought this on? Tattoo on neck is same as swastika on neck?

Yes people do stupid things and put swastikas on their body. Some use them as ancient symbols. Still it's unwise given that even if it's used as a Hindu symbol and you live in the West people will think you're a Nazi and judge you.

Are all neck tattoos swastikas?

 

[Mirai]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1540373886826696710

Seems like the requirement for everyone to sing from the same hymn book is not unique to Mybb.

I hear that it's 15 years in jail for using the term war and not special operation.

So if Russia takes over Ukraine, will it also be the same?

Or maybe that sort of censorship is OK but being called out on a forum where you're not censored is not ok.

Why are people so supportive of the individualistic Western idea of free speech? Yet they side with a side which bans free speech and gives out harsh sentences.

 

[access]

Yup , the news is spinning just one side of teh story . Most of that is clickbait

Remember there has to be a settlement exchange which most countries use. This is Swift. Russia has been blocked on that for most transactions.
Russia tried to get China to create a new one seperate from the USD, but China showed Russian the middle finger.
China is doing what they are doing for their own interests.
I doubt India will create a new settlement exchange. There is no need from a Western viewpoint and if it is created I see limitted use made of it.
Noone wants to have foreign exchange held in Rupees and to get it into USD you would then have to do another switch transaction. It also means you will need the liquidity in USD available to that exchange.

Long term if it is created I see sanction being put on India. The very reason China did not do it.
Also there are sanctions in place and even if russia got usd it will probably be withheld from them.
This is the reason they are trying to insist in being paid direct in roubles
There is virtually no demand for the Ruble as a currency and that is why the current graph is so valid.
From a currency comparison pov I would compare it to rhodesia
View attachment 1334426

So a 2 min summary.
For EXPORTS - The rouble is getting worse. For every USD being paid to them they are getting less rouble/
This is indicating an oversupply of rouble
For IMPORTS - The rouble is getting better. For Every USD that needs to be paid , less rouble is required.
But there are sanctions in place and teh markets where they can purchase commodities for import are limitted.

This is bad overall as they are getting less rouble and have less markets for all supply ( oil etc ) and limitted options to spend what they have. Certain bussiness's in russia may lose profitability and have to close due to the depreciation of the rouble

Also keep in mind. The rouble is at 37% of the peak in march and 75% of where it was before they started their ****
If they are now exporting 50% less oil their income is now a hell of a lot less than the peak and a huge drop even from before the war. As it was said before sanctions take time, but they will hurt.

Some very start comments from that clickbait
" Russia’s central bank was blocked from using its foreign currency reserves to defend the exchange rate"
"China is easing government exchange rate controls to let the Russian ruble fall faster in value against the Chinese yuan to help insulate Beijing from economic sanctions on Moscow."
"but economists say they are likely to try to take advantage of pressure on Moscow to try to strike better deals."
"Holding the exchange rate steady would require China's central bank to subsidize Russian buyers of Chinese goods by giving them more yuan for their rubles than market forces said Moscow's currency was worth."
"The latest change would allow Chinese exchange rates to keep up with the ruble's abrupt daily fluctuations."

it really seems like you are ignoring a whole lot of information

Russian oil and fuel revenue up even as exports fall - IEA

Higher crude oil and fuel prices allowed Russian revenues to climb in May despite its export volumes slipping due to sanctions, the International Energy Agency said on Wednesday.

www.reuters.com

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/06/14/russia-fossil-fuel-revenue-ukraine-war/

us dollar being paid to them? are they not actively stopping the petrodollar practice?


as far as i know, they are forcing countries to buy from them in ruble, which in turn strengthens their currency, aka increasing demand for the ruble.

which is what that graph is indicating.

 

[access]

Always hilarious checking into this thread every few days to see how gullible and far up USA’s arse the usual lot are.

Fragile little worlds indeed.

sometimes... i think its a distraction to how completely ****ed the usa is right now with their insest pedo dementia president.

"the leader of the free world"


its the same lot that argue the same rubbish in the usa threads and the same rubbish in the covid threads.

...makes one wonder....

 

[Mirai]

sometimes... i think its a distraction to how completely ****ed the usa is right now with their insest pedo dementia president.

"the leader of the free world"


its the same lot that argue the same rubbish in the usa threads and the same rubbish in the covid threads.

...makes one wonder....

You ever consider that maybe not everything is about domestic US politics?

How many people here are Americans?

Russia is invading an independent country and killing people.

They have in December told NATO to get out of Eastern Europe.

NATO and Eastern Europe would have said NO.

Russia would have had to invade Eastern Europe and start WW3.

As long as Ukraine holds this imperialist Russian regime at bay, WW3 is less likely.

But for some people it's as though Biden created Russia and everything is about stupid Dems vs Reps debate in the US.

Because people are so ignorant.

 

[vaakseun]

Same can be said of all the pro Ukrainian posters on here with their western propaganda and won't even mention the few that started posting twitter feeds from Ukraine months ago about how they are winning the war.

I realize it's a bit hard keeping up on current events at your age, so here's an update for oupa:

It's now over 4 months into Putin's 3 day war.

Russia has been pushed out of Kyiv, Kharkiv and the rest of the North and they are busy losing Kherson province. Russia has made marginal gains in the Donbas.

Overall, Russia now controls less territory than they did during the second week of the war.

Two more Baltic countries are about to join NATO and Ukraine has been granted EU candidate status. Russia's economy is such that they are no longer able to supply their troops with toilet paper.

 

[vaakseun]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1540389065660502016

London will be bombed first in World War Three, Putin ally claims
A close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned that London will be the first city to be bombed in the event of another world war.

Speaking on Russia's Channel 1 television, Andrey Gurulyov, a State Duma politician, said the UK capital would be hit first if the blockade of the Russian exclave Kaliningrad led to war.

"We'll destroy the entire group of enemy's space satellites during the first air operation," he said.

"No-one will care if they are American or British, we would see them all as NATO.

"Second, we'll mitigate the entire system of anti-missile defence, everywhere and 100%.

"Third, we certainly won't start from Warsaw, Paris or Berlin.

"The first to be hit will be London.

"It's crystal clear that the threat to the world comes from the Anglo-Saxons.

 

[CommonSense]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1540389065660502016

What a moron. It will be followed by the utter destruction of ALL Russian cities in short order.

 

[tetrasect]

as far as i know, they are forcing countries to buy from them in ruble, which in turn strengthens their currency, aka increasing demand for the ruble.

That's not how it works.

In reality there is close to zero demand for the Ruble internationally, with the only people making sizable exchanges being Gasprombank.

It's just that it is balanced by the restrictions set in place that prevent people from buying foreign currency, which has the same financial impact as a reduction in demand.

Right now in Russia it is either forbidden or too expensive to buy or own Dollars and so nobody is doing it.

It's like if the government came in and added 300 rand tax on every KFC meal and limited each person to one meal every 3 months. Doesn't mean there is no demand for KFC it just means people are either forbidden to or can't afford to eat there.

 

[Major Boredom]

it really seems like you are ignoring a whole lot of information

Russian oil and fuel revenue up even as exports fall - IEA

Higher crude oil and fuel prices allowed Russian revenues to climb in May despite its export volumes slipping due to sanctions, the International Energy Agency said on Wednesday.

www.reuters.com

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/06/14/russia-fossil-fuel-revenue-ukraine-war/

us dollar being paid to them? are they not actively stopping the petrodollar practice?


as far as i know, they are forcing countries to buy from them in ruble, which in turn strengthens their currency, aka increasing demand for the ruble.

which is what that graph is indicating.

Again you are (deliberately ?) mixing and matching 2 different timeframes.
One was the 3 months after the war started
The other is a year on year till May
Both of those reports are taking into account of sale during the spike and before the sanctions were starting to take effect.

As I said prev there was a huge spike in ruble which helped exports. That spike has exhausted itself and the ruble is now 69% what it was worth before the war and 40% of the peak of the spike

Even during the spike time and just after you can see exports of oil have dropped by 20% and we will see this dropping far more as the latest blocks are reflected.

Yes , prices of oil are up, ~25% , but there have been reports have also been saying that some countries ( india/china ) have been taking advantage of huge discounts that russian have been offering. ie russia has not been realising the international $ price for oil.
We have also seen that Russia has been exporting oil everywhere to store, even south africa

But south africa cannot refine as we no longer have the capability.

Retaining refining capacity could pose long-term risks for South Africa

South Africa’s oil refining capacity has always been rather small when considered on a global scale, but there was some sense of national pride and of security in knowing that the country could deliver – even if most of the crude input had to be imported. While local refineries were never able...

www.engineeringnews.co.za

I know someone in our Gov wanted to buy russian oil lol, but it doesnt help if we cant refine it

As far as companies buying in ruble, that will be a small proportion of what it used to be..
Also as far as being paid for oil that has been delivered, there were reports that russia stopped deliveries because they HAD NOT BEEN PAID.

As I have said before. Sanctions take time to show effects, but they will bite

 

[Major Boredom]

as far as i know, they are forcing countries to buy from them in ruble, which in turn strengthens their currency, aka increasing demand for the ruble.

which is what that graph is indicating.

Nope

From an export perspective the graph indicates that over the last year the value of the ruble is current weaking, not getting stronger
From an import perspective it is strengthening, but they are unable to import on the scale they used to.
If Russia was able to freely import from all markets then they would be in a really nice position. But they cant at scale.

 

[Major Boredom]

Right now in Russia it is either forbidden or too expensive to buy or own Dollars and so nobody is doing it.

From what i have read there is a massive black market currently with a 20% premium to try buy dollars.

Here is an iol article that came from bloomberg that explains it better . Since then the ruble has dropped even more
Also in Feb it mentions the banks charged a 30% commision lol

Putin sends Russians on wild hunt for dollars in the black market

As the ruble's official exchange rate parts ways with its value on the street, dollars are becoming hard to find.

www.iol.co.za

 

[MunosMachos]

Again you are (deliberately ?) mixing and matching 2 different timeframes.
One was the 3 months after the war started
The other is a year on year till May
Both of those reports are taking into account of sale during the spike and before the sanctions were starting to take effect.

As I said prev there was a huge spike in ruble which helped exports. That spike has exhausted itself and the ruble is now 69% what it was worth before the war and 40% of the peak of the spike

Even during the spike time and just after you can see exports of oil have dropped by 20% and we will see this dropping far more as the latest blocks are reflected.

Can you please explain why you say "the ruble is now 69% what it was worth before the war and 40% of the peak of the spike"? Here are the Ruble and Rand compared to the Dollar.

 

[Taxed]

Yup , the news is spinning just one side of teh story . Most of that is clickbait

Remember there has to be a settlement exchange which most countries use. This is Swift. Russia has been blocked on that for most transactions.
Russia tried to get China to create a new one seperate from the USD, but China showed Russian the middle finger.
China is doing what they are doing for their own interests.
I doubt India will create a new settlement exchange. There is no need from a Western viewpoint and if it is created I see limitted use made of it.
Noone wants to have foreign exchange held in Rupees and to get it into USD you would then have to do another switch transaction. It also means you will need the liquidity in USD available to that exchange.

Long term if it is created I see sanction being put on India. The very reason China did not do it.
Also there are sanctions in place and even if russia got usd it will probably be withheld from them.
This is the reason they are trying to insist in being paid direct in roubles
There is virtually no demand for the Ruble as a currency and that is why the current graph is so valid.
From a currency comparison pov I would compare it to rhodesia
View attachment 1334426

So a 2 min summary.
For EXPORTS - The rouble is getting worse. For every USD being paid to them they are getting less rouble/
This is indicating an oversupply of rouble
For IMPORTS - The rouble is getting better. For Every USD that needs to be paid , less rouble is required.
But there are sanctions in place and teh markets where they can purchase commodities for import are limitted.

This is bad overall as they are getting less rouble and have less markets for all supply ( oil etc ) and limitted options to spend what they have. Certain bussiness's in russia may lose profitability and have to close due to the depreciation of the rouble

Also keep in mind. The rouble is at 37% of the peak in march and 75% of where it was before they started their ****
If they are now exporting 50% less oil their income is now a hell of a lot less than the peak and a huge drop even from before the war. As it was said before sanctions take time, but they will hurt.

Some very start comments from that clickbait
" Russia’s central bank was blocked from using its foreign currency reserves to defend the exchange rate"
"China is easing government exchange rate controls to let the Russian ruble fall faster in value against the Chinese yuan to help insulate Beijing from economic sanctions on Moscow."
"but economists say they are likely to try to take advantage of pressure on Moscow to try to strike better deals."
"Holding the exchange rate steady would require China's central bank to subsidize Russian buyers of Chinese goods by giving them more yuan for their rubles than market forces said Moscow's currency was worth."
"The latest change would allow Chinese exchange rates to keep up with the ruble's abrupt daily fluctuations."

There is one problem with SWIFT sanctioning in that it only really works if it affects all banks in the target country. As of now only state owned banks are cut off from SWIFT while commercial banks aren't. Russians can still go to most commercial banks and get Visa/Mastercard/Amex cards and use them. The reason most aren't doing that is because it's almost impossible to ship anything into Russia right now unless you are using Russian shipping systems which risk impounding if docking or crossing in a foreign country/or going through Turkey, India or China which adds to the cost and wait times to get their luxury items.

The rich aren't feeling the affects because the exchange rate is in their favor and importing things is getting cheaper for them as their currency gets stronger. The poor are feeling it but most poor Russians just get on with their lives rather than complaining or going against those in charge. It's easier to plant a garden of beets and cabbages than risk arrest. I lived in Russia for many years and you have a nation that is mostly willing to do anything their country asks of them even if it means great personal cost.

They need to cut off all SWIFT transfers if they want real results and each NATO country needs to start staging military exercises near Russia's borders. America should start flying sorties near Alaska and North Japan as a show of force without any actual conflict to draw resources to the East.

 

[Major Boredom]

Can you please explain why you say "the ruble is now 69% what it was worth before the war and 40% of the peak of the spike"? Here are the Ruble and Rand compared to the Dollar.

Why are you bring ZAR into it ? We are not a settlement exchange.