There is much discussion about the possibility that Zuma may be dispossessed of the ANC leadership early in his second term. But no one with any political sense believes this. This can only happen if Zuma himself wants it. It is otherwise unthinkable: the KwaZulu-Natal ANC utterly dominates the rest of the party, providing the party with its programme and over half its executive, let alone a large number of cabinet ministers.
There is simply no way that this bloc would tolerate seeing the first Zulu ANC president since Luthuli dispossessed of power. When, at the Mangaung conference, some ANC delegates sought to thwart that bloc they were threatened with physical violence. The airy discussions of Zuma being made to stand down are led by wishful white commentators like Allister Sparks who simply fail to comprehend the reality of the Zulu bloc.
In fact Zuma is rather a good representative of what the ANC is rapidly becoming - the party of the old Bantustans. The chances are quite high that at the 2016 local elections the Opposition will win Jo'burg, Pretoria, Port Elizabeth and Cape Town. As the ANC recedes from the urban centres it becomes ever more dependent on the great vote banks of poor rural voters who can easily be threatened with a cut-off of benefits and who are easily mobilised by their chiefs. Hence the ANC circular at the start of their campaign instructing all its MPs to avoid saying or doing anything to upset the traditional chiefs.
In any case, most of these rural voters live in an ANC-only world and, as the ANC shrinks, it can be expected to adopt a sort of militant defence around these rural precincts, making them virtual no-go areas. But the more the ANC electorate shrinks back upon these rural and lumpen elements, the more natural a leader Zuma appears to be.
Like them he is poorly educated, polygamous, and believes in the ancestors. He knows their traditional ways, sympathizes with them, and genially presides (and sings) at their weddings and funerals. In addition, of course, many such voters think it is quite right that Zuma should have built himself a royal kraal at Nkandla: a marriage of true minds.
At the end of this process the ANC will be virtually indistinguishable from any of the old homeland parties. Admittedly, it is a bit awkward for the "party of the working class" to lose the big urban centres but this is easily dealt with by re-naming the rural poor and unemployed as working class. The great concern is whether the ANC can really accept its eviction from the urban centres or whether it will attempt large-scale election rigging to avoid such a fate.
But the even greater - and more immediate - problem is tribalism. Late last year I conducted an opinion survey in KwaZulu-Natal. This suggested that the Zulu bloc was still consolidating behind Zuma and that the ANC would add at least another 10% to its vote there. At the same time anecdotal evidence reaches me from a variety of sources suggesting a rising tempo of anti-Zulu tribalism in workplace situations in Jo'burg and the Cape.
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