SA’s wind and solar power busts major renewable energy myth

[garyc]

Thanks for the article, I have saved a copy of the graph. I keep a collection of very bad graphs which are designed to deliberately distort data as examples to people on how not to do it if they want to keep some credibility. This graph is awesome - using the legend to hide the peak demand that would totally invalidate the argument that they present.

 

[alexandergrahambell]

The only myth is contained in the article itself. It's a bit like the mythical catastrophe that the global warmists keep predicting, but which reality disproves every time.

 

[K3NS31]

Thanks for the article, I have saved a copy of the graph. I keep a collection of very bad graphs which are designed to deliberately distort data as examples to people on how not to do it if they want to keep some credibility. This graph is awesome - using the legend to hide the peak demand that would totally invalidate the argument that they present.

That's actually a great idea. Think I should start doing that too. At the very least for the comic relief.

 

[furpile]

So, a quick look shows the following:
1. Their "predicted generating capacity" is based on enough wind and solar plants to have 42 000 MW generating capacity.
2. This is almost the total amount of capacity that Eskom has installed currently.
3. Even with these massive amounts of installed capacity they can still only generate between 10 000 and 20 000 MW at any given time.
4. At 20:00 where the peak demand is between 30 000 and 35 000 MW, they will only generate about 12 000 MW. So still short about 20 000 MW capacity.

It is articles like this that give renewables a bad name. Sure, they have a use and an important part in the power generation sector, but anybody that claims they will provide baseload capacity is sorely mistaken. Yes, coal is dirty and nuclear has risks associated with it, but they can supply 90%+ capacity constantly. That is baseload. Not this 25% to 40% that renewables offer.

 

[Bern]

The graphs don't align that well after 16 hours.....and by 22 hours its close to its lowest while demand has peaked?

True, but if we are talking something like CSP they can retain power generated for many hours depending on the setup.

I wonder how large and diverse a "renewable" system could be built for R1 Trillion (make that R2 Trillion with the inevitable overruns...).

This would need to include storage options and the ability to use other sources should the wind/solar/other not be up to scratch for certain periods (i.e. no wind or sun for a few days).

 

[X-Gamer]

Thanks for the article, I have saved a copy of the graph. I keep a collection of very bad graphs which are designed to deliberately distort data as examples to people on how not to do it if they want to keep some credibility. This graph is awesome - using the legend to hide the peak demand that would totally invalidate the argument that they present.

Exactly this. The author should have picked this up.

This is nothing more than a press release being lapped up by the media.

 

[dualmeister]

which states that South Africa’s wind and solar power generation matches electricity demand in the country

The research further found that when wind and solar generation are combined, the net effect is a significant contribution to baseload power.

So which is it?

Can we provide enough power to the main engines captain

 

[furpile]

So which is it?

Can we provide enough power to the main engines captain

No. Look at this entry on Wikipedia.

Installed capacity (Planned capacity) in MW:
Wind power: 562 (2098) MW
CSP: 100 (400) MW
Solar PV: 914 (985) MW

In total there is currently about 1500 MW installed with a total of about 3500 MW planned. This article claims a possible 42 000 MW of installed capacity.

Check this article:

Solar power in South Africa includes photovoltaics (PV) as well as concentrated solar power (CSP). Installed capacity is expected to reach 8,400 MW by 2030, along with 8,400 MW of wind power.

A combined 16 800 MW by 2030? So how many more decades to get to 42 000 MW?

 

[bmeagle]

This article neglects the additional spinning reserves that would be required to ensure grid stability. Look what has happened in europe with their renewable progress:
http://www.cfact.org/2013/08/13/europeans-learning-the-hard-truth-about-wind-and-solar-energy/
Renewables have their place, just like coal and nuclear.
The answer is a combination till we perfect aneutronic fusion.

 

[Johand]

This article neglects the additional spinning reserves that would be required to ensure grid stability. Look what has happened in europe with their renewable progress:
http://www.cfact.org/2013/08/13/europeans-learning-the-hard-truth-about-wind-and-solar-energy/
Renewables have their place, just like coal and nuclear.
The answer is a combination till we perfect aneutronic fusion.

Not saying you don't have a point but referring to an article on an organization like CFACT's website does not really make for a good argument.

 

[Arthur]

Not saying you don't have a point but referring to an article on an organization like CFACT's website does not really make for a good argument.

Why? What does CFACT get wrong?

I don't know them at all, but my impression after browsing there for the last half-hour is that they're a voice of reason on energy and 'renewables' issues.

 

[bmeagle]

Not saying you don't have a point but referring to an article on an organization like CFACT's website does not really make for a good argument.

Well then point me to a better one that objectively highlights the issues? And don't tell me green peace...

 

[bmeagle]

Look out the window, note the weather. Let's suppose sa was supplied with 100 % renewable power today what would the load shedding stage be?

 

[Arthur]

Look out the window, note the weather. Let's suppose sa was supplied with 100 % renewable power today what would the load shedding stage be?

I have a 12kW PV array. Right now, at 10h21 in one of the sunniest areas in the country (Little Karoo), my pv array is generating 0.98kW and the house is using 3.6kW. The diffs is provided by baseload, thank goodness.

It's been overcast and rainy for nearly a week.

If we relied on renewables we'd go back to the 18th century.

 

[bmeagle]

I rest my case. Renewables can help and there is a place for it, but I don't want to revert to an 18 th century lifestyle. Off course that might actually be the goal of these agenda 21 proponents.

 

[richjdavies]

Sheesh - if only it were that simple... Life's not black and white. It's a bunch of grey inbetween. Fossil fuels have the same problems your describing too -- if the coal silo collapses, or a union goes on strike... your down on your luck, it's tough! (sorry...)

Any 100% renewable grid would need to have:
- Multiple locations -- yes it might be cloudy near you, but it's not cloudy everywhere all the time
- Multiple sources - wind + solar -- probability 101 tells you that if there's a 20% chance of cloudy day and 20% of no-wind day, then the chance of both is only 4%. Luckily they actually act against each other -- (cloudy day more likely to be windy say) reducing the probability further
- Some storage - like the pumped hydro we already have
- Some backup - gas turbines or diesel generators say -- you know the ones that Eskom is paying R1bn/mo for
- Some demand management - either through peak-pricing and/or paying people to switch off in emergencies (again, already being done - see Comverge)

All of these things are ALREADY done with fossil fuels, so we wouldn't be going from 0 to 100 on them, just from 40 to 50.

So - let's not be ignorant and not go with "it's cold in my kitchen, so there must not be global warming" kind of argument.
If we had that attitude we wouldn't have built any power stations in the first place.

 

[sybertiger]

+1
GOV/Eskom has managed to make a R30b Medupi into a R300b Medupi - making it the most expensive coal power station in the world.
http://www.timeslive.co.za/thetimes/2015/06/03/Medupi-to-cost-you-R300bn
http://www.terrafirma-academy.com/the-most-expensive-coal-power-station-in-the-world

At R300b wind / solar is cheaper than coal.

300b then after 5years theres no coal? what then,and they still have to buy the coal so exstra cost

wind=free
water=free they can make a water loop
solar=free

almost no "production cost" just setup cost

but they prob need "production cost" to do there things u know

on a side not,wonder if they ever used that large bill like that for money laundering,always wondered that,as things goes to crazy ammounts so fast!

 

[bmeagle]

Nothing is free, the cost of renewables is only evident when you realise that the availability of renewables is a lot less than the capacity, so if you want a hundred percent renewable supply be prepared to install about 5 to 6 times the required capacity and be prepared to destroy millions of hectares to build hydro dams.