Sign up with GoogleSource - Sunday Times
SA broadband base to grow
Thursday July 14, 2005 11:54 - (SA)
By Shoks Mzolo
South Africa's number of broadband users will grow to 870,000 for the five-year period ending 2009 from last year's 40,000, African information and communications technology (ICT) research house BMI-TechKnowledge (BMI-T) says.
BMI-T's forecast, contained in its new report, equates to less than 2% of the population that is currently estimated at 46 million.
Although the arrival of the second national operator (SNO) is likely to spell a decrease in Telkom's number of fixed-line consumers, the country's landline base will stagnate around five million, BMI-T telecommunications research analyst and co-author of the report Tertia Smit said.
The long overdue SNO looks set to initially deploy its network to enterprises, or large clients, during its first few years of operation.
However, according to Smit: "The good news is that rapidly falling broadband service prices will have a significant impact on the rate of penetration of broadband in the market, but the flip side is that overall the market will remain relatively backward compared to the developed countries."
Even against some emerging markets, South Africa fares dismally on the broadband front - both in terms of pervasiveness and pricing. Brazil whose penetration levels are above the 5% mark boasts lower tariffs and as does Slovakia where the take-up rates stood at 6% in 2004.
A vast majority of local broadband users are high-earners, BMI-T added.
A 2% broadband density in 2009 is expected to yield 3.68 billion rand in revenues - a huge improvement from the 307 million rand the Telkom-dominated industry turned over in 2004.
"The aggressive push by the mobile operators into the broadband wireless data space, as witnessed already by Vodacom and now MTN, will create an additional dynamic in terms of fixed-mobile convergence, as some degree of overlap occurs in the additional access space," Smit asserted, noting that in three months of launching 3G, Vodacom had attracted 14,000 users.
MTN, which rolled out its 3G offering last month, aims to grow its 3G base to 100,000 in a year's time, while Wireless Broadband Solutions hopes for a market share of 10% (or more than 100,000) by March 2006.
The ICT research house expects the number of cell phone users to rise to 31 million in five years from 23 million while 3G subscriber base is seen at 4.4 million from 14,000 earlier this year.
Turning to WiMax, which will be available via handsets in the future, Smit said the country is likely to start seeing WiMax-enabled notebook PCs next year. Vodacom and its 50%-shareholder are currently running the tech trials.
According to BMI-T, WiMax will be an important backhaul technology and will emerge as a direct access technology around 2009 when its take-up rates would have grown significantly.
SA broadband base to grow
Thursday July 14, 2005 11:54 - (SA)
By Shoks Mzolo
South Africa's number of broadband users will grow to 870,000 for the five-year period ending 2009 from last year's 40,000, African information and communications technology (ICT) research house BMI-TechKnowledge (BMI-T) says.
BMI-T's forecast, contained in its new report, equates to less than 2% of the population that is currently estimated at 46 million.
Although the arrival of the second national operator (SNO) is likely to spell a decrease in Telkom's number of fixed-line consumers, the country's landline base will stagnate around five million, BMI-T telecommunications research analyst and co-author of the report Tertia Smit said.
The long overdue SNO looks set to initially deploy its network to enterprises, or large clients, during its first few years of operation.
However, according to Smit: "The good news is that rapidly falling broadband service prices will have a significant impact on the rate of penetration of broadband in the market, but the flip side is that overall the market will remain relatively backward compared to the developed countries."
Even against some emerging markets, South Africa fares dismally on the broadband front - both in terms of pervasiveness and pricing. Brazil whose penetration levels are above the 5% mark boasts lower tariffs and as does Slovakia where the take-up rates stood at 6% in 2004.
A vast majority of local broadband users are high-earners, BMI-T added.
A 2% broadband density in 2009 is expected to yield 3.68 billion rand in revenues - a huge improvement from the 307 million rand the Telkom-dominated industry turned over in 2004.
"The aggressive push by the mobile operators into the broadband wireless data space, as witnessed already by Vodacom and now MTN, will create an additional dynamic in terms of fixed-mobile convergence, as some degree of overlap occurs in the additional access space," Smit asserted, noting that in three months of launching 3G, Vodacom had attracted 14,000 users.
MTN, which rolled out its 3G offering last month, aims to grow its 3G base to 100,000 in a year's time, while Wireless Broadband Solutions hopes for a market share of 10% (or more than 100,000) by March 2006.
The ICT research house expects the number of cell phone users to rise to 31 million in five years from 23 million while 3G subscriber base is seen at 4.4 million from 14,000 earlier this year.
Turning to WiMax, which will be available via handsets in the future, Smit said the country is likely to start seeing WiMax-enabled notebook PCs next year. Vodacom and its 50%-shareholder are currently running the tech trials.
According to BMI-T, WiMax will be an important backhaul technology and will emerge as a direct access technology around 2009 when its take-up rates would have grown significantly.