SA heading for junk downgrade, rating forecaster says

[Chris_the_Brit]

Renaissance Capital, which has correctly predicted eight out of nine sovereign rating decisions in emerging Europe and the Middle East since May, is calling a downgrade to junk for South Africa next month.

That view is at odds with the majority in the Bloomberg survey, but Renaissance Global chief economist Charles Robertson says SA's fundamentals have deteriorated significantly since May, when Moody's Investors Service affirmed its Baa3 rating. The next review is on November 1.

"The macro numbers are not supportive of South Africa keeping investment grade," Robertson said. "Poor growth, tough public finances, a subdued commodity outlook, tension on the streets as seen in the anti-Nigerian riots, questions about the president’s ability to push through his agenda - all these are worrisome."

SA heading for junk downgrade, rating forecaster says | Fin24

Renaissance Capital, which has correctly predicted eight sovereign rating decisions since May, is calling a downgrade to junk for SA next month.

m.fin24.com

 

[Mila]

And All SA and its politicians are worried about is a drunk bar fight that he said she said is a drunk racist..

But I guess that is what the ANC wants

 

[Thor]

We won't get junk.

Rating agencies are paid off zero integrity otherwise we would've been junk already.

 

[Jola]

We won't get junk.

Rating agencies are paid off zero integrity otherwise we would've been junk already.

Fair argument.

But with the complete incompetence of the ANC NEC, and CR, it just cannot be business as usual forever.

 

[ɹǝuuᴉM]

We won't get junk.

Rating agencies are paid off zero integrity otherwise we would've been junk already.

No, not all of them! OK, Moody's is known for "extreme optimism"

 

[reactor_sa]

Nah, Moody's already said last month that they are happy with the progress in SA.

 

[BBSA]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1181653296634875904

 

[santaman202]

Too much entitlement and privilege going around these days, need to thin out the herd. It's time that some people realise that after 94 sa became just another african country, with african ideologies which is doomed to fail like the rest of the continent. The sooner civil war comes knocking the better imo

 

[NarrowBandFtw]

Nah, Moody's already said last month that they are happy that the ANC's bribes were paid in time.

ftfy

 

[Mystic Twilight]

I thought people were predicting junk for ages before this.

 

[Splinter]

Too much entitlement and privilege going around these days, need to thin out the herd. It's time that some people realise that after 94 sa became just another african country, with african ideologies which is doomed to fail like the rest of the continent. The sooner civil war comes knocking the better imo

Really, troll? You do realise if civil war came to SA, white folks would be massacred? The UN and others would step in, eventually. Too late though.

 

[Thor]

Really, troll? You do realise if civil war came to SA, white folks would be massacred? The UN and others would step in, eventually. Too late though.

Not that I would ever want to see a civil war, ever.

I do have to say some of the older generation who are still with us and a hand full of them can do a lot of strategic damage, we've always been out numbered.

 

[vigras rojara]

Too much entitlement and privilege going around these days, need to thin out the herd. It's time that some people realise that after 94 sa became just another african country, with african ideologies which is doomed to fail like the rest of the continent. The sooner civil war comes knocking the better imo

You do know that SA debt had junk status under the old regime you so clearly pine for?

 

[thechamp]

Too much entitlement and privilege going around these days, need to thin out the herd. It's time that some people realise that after 94 sa became just another african country, with african ideologies which is doomed to fail like the rest of the continent. The sooner civil war comes knocking the better imo

What a warmonger, hopefully you are the first to be thinned out when the thinning of the herd happens.

 

[Knyro]

Too much entitlement and privilege going around these days, need to thin out the herd. It's time that some people realise that after 94 sa became just another african country, with african ideologies which is doomed to fail like the rest of the continent. The sooner civil war comes knocking the better imo

The number of keyboard warriors around here never ceases to amaze.

 

[NarrowBandFtw]

You do know that SA debt had junk status under the old regime you so clearly pine for?

We've never had junk status from all three major rating agencies, in fact Moody's specifically has never rated ZA as junk.

Also, the ratings agencies have only been issuing ratings for ZA from 1994, the "old regime" was never rated and therefor could not have been junk, every junk rating we've ever had was under ANC rule.

Don't take my word for it though, ask our reserve bank:

https://www.resbank.co.za/Lists/News%20and%20Publications/Attachments/7869/20170630South%20Africa%E2%80%99s%20long-term%20sovereign%20credit%20ratings%20history.pdf

 

[vigras rojara]

We've never had junk status from all three major rating agencies, in fact Moody's specifically has never rated ZA as junk.

Also, the ratings agencies have only been issuing ratings for ZA from 1994, the "old regime" was never rated and therefor could not have been junk, every junk rating we've ever had was under ANC rule.

So you're saying that the lack of a rating is better than a junk rating. OK then.

Just remember to be first in line to buy Bonus Bonds like back in the day.

 

[Jopie Fourie]

It will be irrelevant if Moody's downgrades SA or not. By now, a downgrade from them has already been factored into the markets. Most capital outflows already happened the past two years with hundreds of Billions of US Dollars that was taken out the country by investors. Whatever investments are left in the stockmarkets are irrelevant to international investors.

In addition to this, for many years now Moody's are ignored by most international investment houses. The biggest in the world primarily are guided by S&P and Fitch. These investment houses, for the past 10 years have withdrawn all investments from SA and are no longer investing locally, irrelevant of Moody's.

Lastly, as Cyril Ramaphosa found the past two years.... there is no more Western investors willing to invest in SA. The few investments they are managing to get are so small and immaterial, they mean nothing to the economy. You know your country is in the dumps when even China no longer wants to invest there.

 

[NarrowBandFtw]

So you're saying that the lack of a rating is better than a junk rating. OK then.

I'm saying nothing of the sort, the lack of a rating is neither good or bad, it is a null value, yet to be determined. You might as well ask me if an uninitialized Boolean variable is true or false, it is impossible to answer because it has no value assigned yet.

A junk rating has already been determined to be bad.

 

[vigras rojara]

I'm saying nothing of the sort, the lack of a rating is neither good or bad, it is a null value, yet to be determined. You might as well ask me if an uninitialized Boolean variable is true or false, it is impossible to answer because it has no value assigned yet.

A junk rating has already been determined to be bad.

Thanks for a wall of waffle, but my point was that the previous regime struggled to raise capital through traditional channels, hence the Bonus Bond nonsense.

I wonder why that was.