SA heading for junk downgrade, rating forecaster says

[Jopie Fourie]

Thanks for a wall of waffle, but my point was that the previous regime struggled to raise capital through traditional channels, hence the Bonus Bond nonsense.

I wonder why that was.

In the 1970's SA had a strong economy. Stromger than that of the US at the time, despite the sanctions. The last leadership failed though in the late 1980"s.

 

[NarrowBandFtw]

Thanks for a wall of waffle, but my point was that the previous regime struggled to raise capital through traditional channels, hence the Bonus Bond nonsense.

Actually no, that was your deflection from your factually incorrect statement that the old regime had junk ratings, it did not.

I wonder why that was.

One word: sanctions

 

[Splinter]

In the 1970's SA had a strong economy. Stromger than that of the US at the time, despite the sanctions. The last leadership failed though in the late 1980"s.

You are mixing half-truths.

The reason that FW de Klerk took the country to negotiations was because sanctions were crippling the SA economy. Simply, sanctions brought apartheid to its knees.

 

[krycor]

Fair argument.

But with the complete incompetence of the ANC NEC, and CR, it just cannot be business as usual forever.

I think it hangs in the balance vs MTBS & actions vs SOEs. The news on SOEs is pretty damning lately so interesting to watch what they do.

The NEC thing last weekend didn’t really indicate what they gonna do but I think they were made aware bluntly that no significant change = junk status.

I don’t think we heading for junk though, at best it will be dec if they believe not enough changes vs SOEs.

What people should be worried about is taxes.. money has to come from somewhere.

 

[krycor]

Actually no, that was your deflection from your factually incorrect statement that the old regime had junk ratings, it did not.


One word: sanctions

 

[krycor]

So you're saying that the lack of a rating is better than a junk rating. OK then.

Just remember to be first in line to buy Bonus Bonds like back in the day.

I think it’s a pointless exercise to argue with someone who romanticizes life pre 1994. If SA was in such an excellent position our rating would not have been junk when they rated us unless they want to evaluate only “white” South Africa.. lmao.

 

[John Tempus]

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Wait.. did you actually just post a rebuttal to what Narrowband said by providing the evidence that what he said regarding pre-94 is in fact correct ?

You cannot be this stupid unless you did not read the chart you posted and noticed it specifically start at 1994.

These ratings agencies have been caught over and over not only in recent years but even pre-2000 that they are nothing more than bought for pawns in the world of finance. They were all caught downgrading or upgrading companies based on payments received yet people still think these same goons are credible.

If by some other measure SA were rated junk pre-94 it is because the ratings agencies simply are bought and paid for to rate us junk at the time. Anyone with half a brain would know that the purchasing power of the Rand have drastically gone to **** post 94 more than at any point pre-94 and at a much faster rate.

If SA were junk status pre-94 then it must have been some sort of miracle for South Africans visiting Europe in the 70's recalling it being a cheap holiday because the ZAR was stronger than the USD and close to on par with the GBP up until the 70s.

For a country going through junk status as some on here claim to have been the case pre-94, then it must have been real magic to have stronger purchasing power and an apparent failing country at the same time.

TLDR; pre-94 government might have been narrow minded with personal freedoms but they were not useless kunts. post-94 government portray personal freedoms but they are only freely destroying the country for their own gain.

 

[John Tempus]

I think it’s a pointless exercise to argue with someone who romanticizes life pre 1994. If SA was in such an excellent position our rating would not have been junk when they rated us unless they want to evaluate only “white” South Africa.. lmao.

We were rated junk start new generation 94 because the new government ie. ANC were viewed as an unknown. Do you seriously think even on the up and up any ratings agency will rate a country that just got an election of people into government who have ZERO experience and will give them an A-OK "put all your money into this unknown outcome" country ?

Surely you can put 1+1 together. It has nothing to do with your comment about people thinking the pre-94 era was greater. The reality is that post-94 future were more uncertain from investment perspective so any sensible ratings agency would not give us less than junk.

 

[rietrot]

Ja, no. We're not going to get junk. Our debt is still under control and there's no risk of a default.

 

[NarrowBandFtw]

I think it’s a pointless exercise to argue with someone who romanticizes life pre 1994

It would be infinitely more pointless to argue with someone who mis-characterizes objective, factual statements with their immature emotional reactions, but hey here we are.

If SA was in such an excellent position

NOBODY said this, give us a quote if you disagree.

our rating would not have been junk when they rated us

fyi the major reason we went to junk in 1994 was political uncertainty, it is also the major reason we could climb out of it by merely demonstrating a relatively peaceful existence, now please proceed to go complain to the ratings agencies for romanticizing the old regime, political uncertainty only comes with regime change after all

 

[NarrowBandFtw]

Ja, no. We're not going to get junk. Our debt is still under control and there's no risk of a default.

Countries go to junk many years before there's a real debt problem / risk of default. Junk after all means "speculative" as opposed to "investment" grade, it is not about the risk of investors losing every cent they put in, merely an indicator that there are more stable investment options out there.

We are most definitely in that position where any entity with significant resources to invest will think twice before investing here, that is "junk".

Take a country like Georgia for example, they have a lower debt-to-GDP ratio than South Africa i.e. their debt is under even better control, yet Georgia is rated junk by all three ratings agencies. It is not about debt.

I agree we're not going to junk, but there is no data driven, rational, reason for it.

 

[surface]

Not that I would ever want to see a civil war, ever.

I do have to say some of the older generation who are still with us and a hand full of them can do a lot of strategic damage, we've always been out numbered.

We are thankful that you of that older generation are not doing any strategic damage now. I suppose you guys are busy inventing stuff to help mankind as usual ? Please continue that if you can.

 

[noxibox]

I'd want to see these guys' entire history of predictions, because in general economist researchers have about the same level of predictive powers as tabloid psychics.

Too much entitlement and privilege going around these days, need to thin out the herd. It's time that some people realise that after 94 sa became just another african country, with african ideologies which is doomed to fail like the rest of the continent.

Don't you mean since 1948? Or was it 1910?

The sooner civil war comes knocking the better imo

You mean one of the key things that has been hampering many countries in Africa? I suppose considering how much civil war has benefited them it must be a good idea to have one in South Africa.

 

[BBSA]

Ja, no. We're not going to get junk. Our debt is still under control and there's no risk of a default.

So the two agencies who downgraded us was wrong?

 

[HeftyCrab]

Nah, Moody's already said last month that they are happy with the progress in SA's payments towards them.

FTFY.

 

[GhostSixFour]

Really, troll? You do realise if civil war came to SA, white folks would be massacred? The UN and others would step in, eventually. Too late though.

What makes you think whites will be the sole targets? Looking at the xenophobic attacks and even the in fighting in the ANC, I doubt, that any civil war in SA will be fought on race lines.

 

[Jopie Fourie]

What makes you think whites will be the sole targets? Looking at the xenophobic attacks and even the in fighting in the ANC, I doubt, that any civil war in SA will be fought on race lines.

I agree. If a civil war is ever to erupt in SA, it will not be racial. The masses will probably stand up against government.

 

[surface]

Now that we all have conclusively proved that anc paid moody's substantial bribes, can we pool resources together and see if we can do something? And let us keep it to this forum so that they don't come to know about this.

 

[Unhappy438]

So the two agencies who downgraded us was wrong?

If im not mistaken they measure different things, im not aware of any significant changes to the fundamentals since the last assessment, so i would be surprised if South Africa was downgraded.

 

[rietrot]

So the two agencies who downgraded us was wrong?

I don't think any of these agencies really even matter or anyone takes them seriously. Just look at their history of being wrong all the time.