SA heading for junk downgrade, rating forecaster says

GoofySmurf

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So you're saying that the lack of a rating is better than a junk rating. OK then.

Just remember to be first in line to buy Bonus Bonds like back in the day.
Can you even read ?? Maybe it said so in your head yes ... crazy much ?
 

surface

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Riots have been cleverly rephrased as protesting, its just a matter of time. This country has been devoured by the black plague like many african countries before it. South africa is no exception
Let me try again. Do you think civil war will happen in South africa before 2030 or 2040 ? Matter of time is rather vague. First thread for Zim 2.0 is at least 15 years old when it was a matter of time.
 

santaman202

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Let me try again. Do you think civil war will happen in South africa before 2030 or 2040 ? Matter of time is rather vague. First thread for Zim 2.0 is at least 15 years old when it was a matter of time.
I'll fill you in after supper with julius and his kin
 

noxibox

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Junk status does not prevent anyone investing in a country. For certain classes of investment they're required to sell if the status is junk (which itself has many levels), but otherwise they can still buy equities, invest in real estate and so on. The investment just becomes higher risk.

You're forgetting interest rates. I can't comment on the purchasing power in the 70's but from what I understand was during the pre 94 era the interest rate was significantly high relative to what we have now. So based on basic economic theory, aside from formal fund managers constrained by rules such as credit ratings, anyone else could drop money into the rand and get high returns, which leads to high demand for rand currency and pushes up its value relative to the US dollar. Bring back those interest rates and tomorrow you should see a much higher demand for rand currency (in the short term anyway) at the expense of the local population imploding in the sudden debt trap.

Edit: So SA had good purchasing power but no one to buy from due to sanctions.
I don't think it was that great in the 70s in South Africa. The US Dollar exchange rate might have been better, but import duties tended to be extremely high and the middlemen who imported products put massive markups on them. Anyone who complains about some product not being available in South Africa today has no idea of how restricted choices were before the 90s. But the 70s were still pretty good compared to the 80s which is when things really went to hell in South Africa.

I think people like to overlook all that was bad in South Africa before the 90s. And for some reason they're incapable of acknowledging that after the fall of Apartheid things actually became better before they started to go bad. Because honestly in many ways South Africa became a far better place during the 90s and carried on being so into the early 2000s. It really only started to go the other way at some point after 2005.

I'm just stating the inevitable dark cloud that's looming. Most africans are happy with how the country is being run and they won't mind junk status as long as they can still enjoy their inflated salaries for being previously disadvantaged.
I had not realised all those protests were expressions of happiness.
 

noxibox

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Let me try again. Do you think civil war will happen in South africa before 2030 or 2040 ? Matter of time is rather vague. First thread for Zim 2.0 is at least 15 years old when it was a matter of time.
Maybe it's like those people who'll tell you that if you use illegal drugs you'll eventually become a drug addict. It's just a matter of time they say. Then when you're 80 you wonder if you're going to still get the chance to become an addict before you die. And it's not like you haven't been trying for years.

Or the second coming of Jesus.
 

santaman202

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I think people like to overlook all that was bad in South Africa before the 90s. And for some reason they're incapable of acknowledging that after the fall of Apartheid things actually became better before they started to go bad. Because honestly in many ways South Africa became a far better place during the 90s and carried on being so into the early 2000s. It really only started to go the other way at some point after 2005.
Completely with you on that, pre 94 rsa was in a state of emergency with all the economical sanctions, the terrorist group umKhONTo we sizwe threatened civil war and caused unrest in government but it wasn't due to the fact that the apartheid government performed poorly. Were they corrupt ? Surely but not on the the same scale as the current goverment, they looked after their people and everthing worked back then.
 

surface

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Completely with you on that, pre 94 rsa was in a state of emergency with all the economical sanctions, the terrorist group umKhONTo we sizwe threatened civil war and caused unrest in government but it wasn't due to the fact that the apartheid government performed poorly. Were they corrupt ? Surely but not on the the same scale as the current goverment, they looked after their people and everthing worked back then.
Your post is proof that blacks like you were very happy in pre-1994 era. I will book mark this thread now.
 

NarrowBandFtw

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The days that ANC members take bribes are long gone, now they just take the money straightout of the government bank accounts
In this instance they're paying bribes i.e. Moody's is taking the bribes that the ANC is paying to them.
 

ArtyLoop

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I don't think it was that great in the 70s in South Africa. The US Dollar exchange rate might have been better, but import duties tended to be extremely high and the middlemen who imported products put massive markups on them.
Nothing has changed.. they STILL put massive markups on imported products.
 

Mystic Twilight

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I don't think it was that great in the 70s in South Africa. The US Dollar exchange rate might have been better, but import duties tended to be extremely high and the middlemen who imported products put massive markups on them. Anyone who complains about some product not being available in South Africa today has no idea of how restricted choices were before the 90s. But the 70s were still pretty good compared to the 80s which is when things really went to hell in South Africa.
Interest rate data for pre 94 seems to be scarce, managed to find an article talking about the absa/bankorp/public protector saga and they talk about 22% prime rate in 91, so variable interest rate from commercial banks must have been at least 23% but probably higher. That's quite high, imagine tomorrow everyone's debt repayment is calculated at 23%. So conversely, the interest earned from cash deposits in rand currency should have been fairly attractive relative globally to currency in other banks.
 

Knyro

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Riots have been cleverly rephrased as protesting, its just a matter of time. This country has been devoured by the black plague like many african countries before it. South africa is no exception
I assume you're making plans to leave ASAP then before the war starts instead of just wasting time posting online?
 

JayM

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Interest rate data for pre 94 seems to be scarce, managed to find an article talking about the absa/bankorp/public protector saga and they talk about 22% prime rate in 91, so variable interest rate from commercial banks must have been at least 23% but probably higher. That's quite high, imagine tomorrow everyone's debt repayment is calculated at 23%. So conversely, the interest earned from cash deposits in rand currency should have been fairly attractive relative globally to currency in other banks.
You're right about data being scarce, but pre-1995 foreigners could only shift money to/from SA using the financial rand, and exchanging it for commercial rand had many restrictions, so it was difficult to benefit from interest rate arbitrage.
 

JayM

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Ja, no. We're not going to get junk. Our debt is still under control and there's no risk of a default.
The fact that government has decided it's a good idea to sell foreign currency bonds means debt can get out of control really quickly.
 

santaman202

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I assume you're making plans to leave ASAP then before the war starts instead of just wasting time posting online?
Why would I leave when I can be part of the solution, I wasn't raised a coward.
 

rietrot

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Completely with you on that, pre 94 rsa was in a state of emergency with all the economical sanctions, the terrorist group umKhONTo we sizwe threatened civil war and caused unrest in government but it wasn't due to the fact that the apartheid government performed poorly. Were they corrupt ? Surely but not on the the same scale as the current goverment, they looked after their people and everthing worked back then.
Civil war requires two sides fighting each other. The ANC has a nice monopoly going. The same people looting in the streets are the same people in government. They aren't going to fight a civil war against themselves. If the common people can't be bribed with kfc, tshirts and empty promises. The police will just be asked to stand back so that they can take out their anger on a few shops and maybe kill a few foreigners. That's it.
 

Sollie

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We are thankful that you of that older generation are not doing any strategic damage now. I suppose you guys are busy inventing stuff to help mankind as usual ? Please continue that if you can.
I'm asking your again: Where were you in 1994? You are quick with answers to everything being clever, quick to criticize, but somehow fail to answer this simple question.

Incidentally, as one of the older generation, yes, we invented stuff and we're still inventing stuff - when we're not busy trying to fix what some of the younger generation continues breaking in their arrogance.
 

Urist

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Thanks Zuma
Thanks Guptas
Thanks Duduzane
Thanks Ace
Thanks Supra
Thanks Steinhoff
Thanks Shivambu
Thanks ANC supporters

Who did I leave out?
 
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