SA heading for junk downgrade, rating forecaster says

Jopie Fourie

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So this is the last chance.
Nope. They will keep it on a negative outlook and keep it unchanged until at least 2025 before considering an actual downgrade. They may even change it back to stable a few years to extending or delaying a downgrade to well beyond 2035.
 

3WA

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I have 18 months to learn how to short the rand.
 

Vrotappel

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Nope. They will keep it on a negative outlook and keep it unchanged until at least 2025 before considering an actual downgrade. They may even change it back to stable a few years to extending or delaying a downgrade to well beyond 2035.
We can only hope but I doubt it.
 

Chris_the_Brit

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Expect a full downgrade next year

In making the decision to revise South Africa’s credit rating outlook from stable to negative Moody’s made the following four highly critical comments about the government’s fiscal position.
  1. The government has promoted a number of initiatives in response to the weakening growth and fiscal dynamics. However, “its ability to implement those initiatives in a way which generates broadly-based sustainable growth has faced obstacles in part from outstanding vested interests, in part from the social and political challenge of imposing measures that are initially likely to be detrimental for parts of the population”
  2. The negative outlook signals in part Moody’s rising concern that “the government will not find the political capital to implement the range of measures it intends, and that its plans will be largely ineffective in lifting growth”.
  3. South Africa is one of the few countries globally where the average interest rate on government debt markedly exceeds – by an estimated 3 percentage points in fiscal year 2018 – nominal GDP growth. Given that condition, the government debt-to-GDP ratio will continue rising unless the government is able to generate large primary surpluses. The likelihood that it is able to do so has fallen materially.
  4. This week’s MTBPS does not yet represent a developed, credible fiscal strategy
 

NarrowBandFtw

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So this is the last chance.
nope, we've been on a Moody's negative outlook already at the current ratings level back in 2017:

They will not downgrade us as long as they get paid off by the ANC, guaranteed.

We'll bounce between stable and negative outlook rather like we already have been doing for the past 3 years, this is a complete nothing from Moody's this time around, just like before.
 

Sneeky

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and a message to the people and the politicians that work so hard trying to divide us as a nation for their own personal and individual interests, you know who you are, to hell with you all.
#StrongerTogether

 

Mystic Twilight

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Wont matter what the rating is when the debt exceeds gdp, i doubt the creditors will extend lending indefinitely.
 

Sollie

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Well done to the boks but winning a game won't keep hyper inflation at bay or keep food on the table.

If only our politicians, unions and tax payers could unite towards a goal like our rugby team.
Agreed. But that would not suit politicians or anybody with own goals. But I guess we can dream ...
 

Sneeky

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The next time some politician spews their normally racially divisive vitriol, step back, think and then tell them to F U C K off., they are not wanted or required.

Without hope or a dream you are rudderless in a stormy sea.
We need hope and dreams to achieve our goals, our best, as a nation.
Thank you to to the Springboks for reminding us of this.
 

NarrowBandFtw

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Wont matter what the rating is when the debt exceeds gdp, i doubt the creditors will extend lending indefinitely.

creditors don't give a flying fahk, the entire world is indebted beyond comprehension, at least 16 countries in the world have debt exceeding annual GDP, almost all of them are chugging along just fine and that list includes Belgium, Singapore and Japan ... any of those trigger your shithole-country-meter?
 

Nicodeamus

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Nothing. But then I don't go claiming to have invented civilization as we know it do I?

That's why I read physics journals on the daily, to polish my skills to the point where I'll be able to contribute something truly novel. Unlike the derivative stuff you think are inventions.

Preservation of data so it meets regulations? Really? Pfft. Come talk to me after you make a breakthrough in plasma confinement in tokamaks.
i work on the Tokkamak and I speak 5 language

now I have the biggest dick over here.

julle is almak k@k! En my voël is die grootste!

that is how you kids sound.
 

krycor

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Wont matter what the rating is when the debt exceeds gdp, i doubt the creditors will extend lending indefinitely.
You do know SA got some distance to that and US is going way past.. Japan being at the worse side.
 

NarrowBandFtw

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You do know SA got some distance to that and US is going way past.. Japan being at the worse side.
Japan is a global manufacturing powerhouse and USA prints the world's reserve currency ... what do we have that'll convince lenders to leverage that high?
 
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