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We can only hope but I doubt it.Nope. They will keep it on a negative outlook and keep it unchanged until at least 2025 before considering an actual downgrade. They may even change it back to stable a few years to extending or delaying a downgrade to well beyond 2035.
In making the decision to revise South Africa’s credit rating outlook from stable to negative Moody’s made the following four highly critical comments about the government’s fiscal position.
- The government has promoted a number of initiatives in response to the weakening growth and fiscal dynamics. However, “its ability to implement those initiatives in a way which generates broadly-based sustainable growth has faced obstacles in part from outstanding vested interests, in part from the social and political challenge of imposing measures that are initially likely to be detrimental for parts of the population”
- The negative outlook signals in part Moody’s rising concern that “the government will not find the political capital to implement the range of measures it intends, and that its plans will be largely ineffective in lifting growth”.
- South Africa is one of the few countries globally where the average interest rate on government debt markedly exceeds – by an estimated 3 percentage points in fiscal year 2018 – nominal GDP growth. Given that condition, the government debt-to-GDP ratio will continue rising unless the government is able to generate large primary surpluses. The likelihood that it is able to do so has fallen materially.
- This week’s MTBPS does not yet represent a developed, credible fiscal strategy
nope, we've been on a Moody's negative outlook already at the current ratings level back in 2017:So this is the last chance.
Agreed. But that would not suit politicians or anybody with own goals. But I guess we can dream ...Well done to the boks but winning a game won't keep hyper inflation at bay or keep food on the table.
If only our politicians, unions and tax payers could unite towards a goal like our rugby team.
Wont matter what the rating is when the debt exceeds gdp, i doubt the creditors will extend lending indefinitely.
i work on the Tokkamak and I speak 5 languageNothing. But then I don't go claiming to have invented civilization as we know it do I?
That's why I read physics journals on the daily, to polish my skills to the point where I'll be able to contribute something truly novel. Unlike the derivative stuff you think are inventions.
Preservation of data so it meets regulations? Really? Pfft. Come talk to me after you make a breakthrough in plasma confinement in tokamaks.