SA heading for junk downgrade, rating forecaster says

[BBSA]

Japan is a global manufacturing powerhouse and USA prints the world's reserve currency ... what do we have that'll convince lenders to leverage that high?

All we have is high interest rates, and it will go higher as our debt to GDP ratio increases.

 

[BBSA]

Public Enterprises Minister, Pravin Gordhan says he doesn't agree with Moody's.

The rating agency on Friday changed its outlook on South Africa to negative, saying the government is unable to turn things around.

Gordhan says, on the contrary, we can bring about change if we all put our efforts together.

He spoke to Karima Brown earlier on The Fix.

"Where I disagree with Moodys is that in some sectors the political capital is certainly there as well as the ideas to bring about the necesary changes. Eskom is one example. There are opportunities for us."

"Just like the Springboks did, if we take out opportunities and score the tries then we will emerge as victors."

Pravin Gordhan disagrees with Moody's

Rating agency Moody's on Friday changed its outlook on SA to negative, saying the government is unable to turn things around.

www.enca.com

"Eskom is one example"

 

[Tokolotshe]

Public Enterprises Minister, Pravin Gordhan says he doesn't agree with Moody's.

The rating agency on Friday changed its outlook on South Africa to negative, saying the government is unable to turn things around.

Gordhan says, on the contrary, we can bring about change if we all put our efforts together.

He spoke to Karima Brown earlier on The Fix.

"Where I disagree with Moodys is that in some sectors the political capital is certainly there as well as the ideas to bring about the necesary changes. Eskom is one example. There are opportunities for us."

"Just like the Springboks did, if we take out opportunities and score the tries then we will emerge as victors."

Pravin Gordhan disagrees with Moody's

Rating agency Moody's on Friday changed its outlook on SA to negative, saying the government is unable to turn things around.

www.enca.com

"Eskom is one example"

Actually I agree with Gordhan. But for that to work we will have to say "your side first".

Consider the "sudden urgency" of the SAHRC to crucify Etzebeth. No court even. Our lovely SAHRC even going on a propaganda crusade dragging Jan van Riebeeck in.

Also don't blame things like apartheid. It's no longer an excuse for failing to perform.

BEE and AA is hurting the country. Imagine if all the white boks had to play with one leg tied up, would we have won?

Enforce law and order. We have a contract between civil society and state in our laws, spelling out responsibilities. Government and it's instruments should not renege on it whenever some wannabe decides life is unfair and starts a crusade burning crap and stoning people, destroying our confidence in state and it's institutions.

Act against corruption in state swiftly and decisively. Justice delayed is justice denied.

Make it easier to do business and don't drive business owners to desperation. Some are even simply retiring or migrating, not willing to put up with all the red tape.

Put country first, not the ANC.

In the meantime, we the citizens, are trying the best we can despite all the challenges.

 

[Paul_S]

Gordhan says, on the contrary, we can bring about change if we all put our efforts together.

The ANC led government have not done anything concrete over the past two years to fix SOEs like Eskom, SAA, SABC, etc.

Mr Pravin, if it's all noise and no action there can be no change.
That's why we're heading for junk.

 

[mahsuri]

As long as Eskom and SAA keep going the way they've been going, SA is heading for JUNK!

 

[Swa]

He's only looking at the right side of the if. What he's not looking at is Moody's reasoning behind the expected downgrade. The ANC neither has the political will nor the cohesion to turn things around. Moody's has effectively placed SA on life support knowing that eventually we WILL reach the conditions for a downgrade. This is something that should scare investors.

 

[Johnatan56]

List of countries by government debt - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

creditors don't give a flying fahk, the entire world is indebted beyond comprehension, at least 16 countries in the world have debt exceeding annual GDP, almost all of them are chugging along just fine and that list includes Belgium, Singapore and Japan ... any of those trigger your shithole-country-meter?

A vast majority of debt in Japan is owed to its own citizens.

For starters, public debt such as government bonds are liquid and safe financial assets, with diverse maturities up to 40 years. As such, there is high demand among banks and insurance firms for public debt in the absence of alternative financial assets in Japan.

Second, Japan’s persistent current account surpluses and correspondingly substantial net external financial asset position have enabled Japanese borrowers to rely largely on domestic capital, thereby avoiding foreign debt crises.

Third, the Bank of Japan currently holds nearly half of all government bonds to achieve its 2 percent inflation target through unconventional monetary easing. The resultant lower yields have reduced the government’s interest payment. Moreover, efforts to stabilize the 10-year yield at around zero percent have postponed Japan’s debt sustainability problems further, with its nominal GDP growth rate consistently exceeding its nominal long-term interest rate.

Japan's growing debt divergence

The BOJ may have no choice but to end up providing permanent government support to avoid painful fiscal consolidation.

www.japantimes.co.jp

So nearly half belong to the Bank of Japan, and other stats put it at over 90% is in the hands of their own citizens. It's basically the same as US, where most of the debt is owed to itself, then American citizens and a tiny bit to external but in dollar denominated currencies. No one will pay all of it back because they make more money borrowing/servicing the interest.

Greece crashed, not sure about Lebanon, but quick google says they're in the same boat as Greece:

With a 152% debt to GDP ratio, Lebanon is the third most indebted country in the world after Japan and Greece. Interest payments consume almost half of government revenues, crippling public finances. A public sector wage increase in 2017 and higher interest rates have added to the budget deficit.

Huge costs in Lebanon's post-war reconstruction were a leading precursor to today's financial problems. Achievements evidently favoured the country's rich and mostly focused on gleaming property developments in the capital, Beirut.

How did Lebanon become the third most indebted nation?

Austerity and corruption triggered Lebanon's protests but how did it become such an indebted nation?

www.bbc.com

Yemen's also got quite a few issues on-going, they have a huge debt issue since 2015, the war, millions are food insecure there:

Yemen has endured conflict since early 2015. Already the poorest country in the Middle East and North Africa region before the conflict broke out, the UN says Yemen is now suffering the worst humanitarian crisis in the world. Fighting has devastated the country’s economy, destroyed critical infrastructure, and led to food insecurity verging on famine.

In 2019, the UN estimated that 24.1 million people—80 percent of the population—were “at risk” of hunger and disease, of which roughly 14.3 million were in acute need of assistance. An estimated 17.8 million people were without safe water and sanitation, and 19.7 million without adequate healthcare.

As a result, Yemen has been grappling with mass outbreaks of preventable diseases, such as cholera, diphtheria, measles, and Dengue Fever. Waves of currency depreciations in 2018 and 2019 created inflationary pressure that have exacerbated the humanitarian crisis, and disruptions to public infrastructure and financial services have severely affected private sector activity.

More than 40 percent of Yemeni households are estimated to have lost their primary source of income and consequently find it difficult to buy even the minimum amount of food. Poverty is worsening: before the crisis, it affected almost half the population, and it now affects an estimated 71 to 78 percent of Yemenis. Women are more severely affected than men.

Overview

The ongoing conflict in Yemen has caused a catastrophic humanitarian crisis. As of March 2017, an estimated 17 million Yemenis (about 60 percent of the total population) are estimated food insecure and a further 7 million severely food insecure.

www.worldbank.org

So 2 of those so far are due to wars.
Barbados defaulted on debt last year: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...th-creditors-in-talks-to-cut-greece-like-debt
They're trying to restructure and the IMF reached in there.

I don't know wtf is happening with Italy, it looks like a Greece waiting to happen, the mafia run everything there.

Then Eritrea:

Eritrea is a one-party state in which national legislative elections have never been held since independence.[21] According to Human Rights Watch, the Eritrean government's human rights record is among the worst in the world.[22] The Eritrean government has dismissed these allegations as politically motivated.[23] The compulsory military service requires long, indefinite conscription periods (6.5 years on average), which some Eritreans leave the country to avoid.[24] Because all local media is state-owned, Eritrea was also ranked as having the second-least press freedom in the global Press Freedom Index, behind only North Korea.

Eritrea - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

I see Jamaica in the list as well, IMF reached in there as well: https://www.imf.org/en/News/Article...w-IMF-Agreement-to-Support-Growth-Create-Jobs



So do you think South Africa can deal with above 70% debt? I think if we reach over 70% as set to by 2022 we'll instantly hit junk status and investments will pull out, we'll probably have something similar to Argentina: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/sep/26/argentina-imf-biggest-loan

 

[Paul_S]

<conspiracy hat on>
Looking at what is happening world wide it's not hard to imagine that there may be a driving force trying to collapse economies world wide in order to bring about a global "one world currency" system run by a "one world order".

South Africa's financial pain is entirely self inflicted and can be prevented but there seems to be zero will power to stop it and we're going to end up throwing away our sovereign independence by borrowing too much.

It's almost as if there are ulterior motives in play and someone is pulling strings in the back ground which is becoming easier to believe than the absolute stupidity of our ANC led government.
</conspiracy hat off>

 

[Swa]

<conspiracy hat on>
Looking at what is happening world wide it's not hard to imagine that there may be a driving force trying to collapse economies world wide in order to bring about a global "one world currency" system run by a "one world order".

South Africa's financial pain is entirely self inflicted and can be prevented but there seems to be zero will power to stop it and we're going to end up throwing away our sovereign independence by borrowing too much.

It's almost as if there are ulterior motives in play and someone is pulling strings in the back ground which is becoming easier to believe than the absolute stupidity of our ANC led government.
</conspiracy hat off>

Nothing new actually. Our political elite have a lot of "worldly" connections and I've gotten the feeling for a long time that they are trying to sink the country. The irony is that if it happens it will most likely be replaced by something like Bitcoin. Why some governments are so adamant to put every obstacle in it's way that they can.