SA Politics Thread Part 10 : The GNU Has Crashed

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Nobody posted the latest SRF poll showing the ANC recovering to 40%. Thought I'd only the DA winning in polls...
 
Mike Hoxbig said:
Nobody posted the latest SRF poll showing the ANC recovering to 40%. Thought I'd only the DA winning in polls...
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The_Right_Honourable_Brit said:
It was actually posted earlier this week by @Sultan Mustafa. If it is the same poll with the DA at 26%.
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Yeah, I suspect the ANC going back to 40% is some laager effect over the whole USA debacle and some slight recovery after the VAT ordeal. Note that the DA hasn't dropped to 2024 levels or lower.
 
Sultan Mustafa said:
Yeah, I suspect the ANC going back to 40% is some laager effect over the whole USA debacle and some slight recovery after the VAT ordeal. Note that the DA hasn't dropped to 2024 levels or lower.
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An interesting part:
Our data show that the DA is now consistently growing among black voters, and when it was largest among black voters, it was usually when they were at the ANC’s throats. The ANC is on the back foot, and it won’t hurt the DA to remain aggressive, as they were with the VAT resistance.
Gabriel Makin
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But DA can never win Black votes, because they're too racist?

  • According to a new poll, the ANC’s support has rebounded to 40%, up from 32% in February.
  • The EFF has plummeted to a record low of 3% support, with many voters defecting to Jacob Zuma’s MKP.
  • Analysts suggest the ANC’s recovery is not due to improved performance, but rather the DA’s reduced opposition intensity.
A new poll from the authoritative Social Research Foundation (SRF) shows that the ANC’s support among registered voters now stands at 40% again, after an SRF poll in February measured President Cyril Ramaphosa’s party’s support at just 32%.
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President Cyril Ramaphosa's popularity is still solid.
Luba Lesolle / Gallo Images
During last year’s general election, the ANC received 40.2% support nationally, thereby losing its outright majority in the National Assembly.
The latest SRF poll was conducted by telephone from 28 May to 9 June among 1 004 demographically representative registered voters.
It has a margin of error of 4% and is modelled for a voter turnout of 58%.

READ: Thuli Madonsela weighs in on the National Dialogue’s ‘exorbitant’ cost
According to this poll, the DA’s support stands at 26% (four percentage points more than during the general election), the MKP’s support is at 18% (+3.4), the IFP’s is at 5% (+1.1), the PA’s is at 3% (+0.9), and the EFF registered a record low of 3% (-6.5).
According to Gabriel Makin, a researcher at the SRF, the ANC’s increased support since the February poll is not due to what the party is doing right, but rather thanks to the DA not intensifying its attacks against the party.
Makin says the ANC suffered heavily under the DA during the February poll, related to the signing of the controversial Expropriation Act.

READ: ActionSA calls for NPA boss Shamila Batohi to be fired
It was during this uproar that the ANC’s support sank to 32%.
He also refers to an April poll by the Institute for Race Relations (IRR) that measured the DA’s support (30.3%) at a level even higher than the ANC’s (29.7%).
This poll was not modelled for voter turnout.
At the time of the IRR poll, the ANC and the DA were in the midst of a standoff over the budget, with the DA refusing to support the ANC’s proposal for a VAT increase.
The ANC eventually had to retreat after Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana’s first attempt at presenting the budget failed to get the necessary support in Parliament.
A work-alongside-each-other approach with the ANC won’t work if the DA wants to overtake them. Voters will reward the DA when they take a public stand against ANC policy.
Gabriel Makin
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According to a new poll, support for John Steenhuisen’s DA party has increased by four percentage points.
Jeffrey Abrahams / Gallo Images
Makin says the ANC still pursues radical policies such as expropriation without compensation, even though research shows it is unpopular among its own voters.
He points to Ramaphosa’s signing of the controversial National Health Insurance (NHI) Act shortly before the elections last year.
The ANC’s support in the SRF’s day-to-day poll at that time fell from 45.9% on 15 May last year (the day the NHI Act was signed) to just 40% the next day.
“The DA’s focus should be to implement its own policy agenda as far as possible, and to oppose the ANC’s as far as possible,” says Makin.
“People are looking for a reason to leave the ANC, so the DA should give it to them.” He says this is a big opportunity for the DA.
Our data show that the DA is now consistently growing among black voters, and when it was largest among black voters, it was usually when they were at the ANC’s throats. The ANC is on the back foot, and it won’t hurt the DA to remain aggressive, as they were with the VAT resistance.
Gabriel Makin
Regarding the ANC’s rebound, Makin says it shows that the party cannot just be written off, but he also believes the ANC’s policy directions are too unpopular to maintain that support.
“If the ANC is serious about getting a majority back, they need to start improving the material circumstances of their voters.”
Regarding the massive tumble in support for Julius Malema’s EFF, Makin says that EFF voters are fed up with a party that offers nothing.


READ: Ramaphosa urges renewed commitment to constitutionalism
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EFF president Julius Malema’s party is becoming increasingly unpopular.
Frennie Shivambu / Gallo Images
“The EFF has been there for three [general] elections now, but has done nothing in that time,” says Makin.
“With all due respect to the politician that he is, Malema’s biggest achievement is that he could get chants such as Kill the Boer protected by the courts under freedom of speech, but people don’t even like the song.”
An April poll by the SRF showed that more than half of South Africans believe the Kill the Boer chant is hate speech and should be banned.
Makin says, with former president Jacob Zuma’s MKP there as a substantial alternative, it is now easier than ever for EFF voters to defect.
Regarding the MKP’s growth in support, he says that EFF defectors play a role, but that the MKP’s groundwork should not be underestimated.
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Jacob Zuma’s MKP has welcomed former EFF supporters.
Darren Stewart / Gallo Images
“The MKP does incredibly good and effective campaigns on the ground. They attend church services and visit traditional leaders,” explains Makin.
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Senior DA members are busy lobbying John Steenhuisen, DA leader, to make himself available to serve a third term as DA leader next year.

However, Steenhuisen, who has led the party since 2020, confirmed on Politieke Rapport this past week that he has not yet made a decision in this regard.

“Look, I will decide later this year, but I am being lobbyed to stand again,” Steenhuisen confirmed.

He adds that he is seriously considering it because “people see this incredible journey that the DA has been on since those big headlines when Mmusi Maimane walked out of the job and trampled the party on the way out, and when Herman Mashaba walked out, and the DA really went backwards”.

“We had 16% support and a lot of people were not sure if the DA would survive it. I remember the headlines ‘the death of the DA’, all the way up Adderley Street,” says Steenhuisen.

Rapport's front page from 20 October 2019 shortly after the Leon Committee recommended that the DA leaders resign.

“But through hard work, dedication and going back to our basic principles, we turned the ship around and this leadership team has done remarkable things.

“Who would have thought, back in 2019 when everyone was writing us off, that we would become a party of national government, that we would become a party of government in KwaZulu-Natal, and that we would run major national departments? People would laugh at you.”

Steenhuisen was elected interim leader of the DA in 2019 after DA leaders such as Maimane (party leader), Athol Trollip (federal chairperson) and James Selfe (chairperson of the federal council) resigned from their posts following a dismal general election in which the party lost almost half a million votes and fell 1.5 percentage points.

Their resignations were recommended at the time after a committee headed by former DA leader Tony Leon investigated the loss of support.

Steenhuisen was elected permanent leader of the party in 2020 when he beat Mbali Ntuli with almost 80% of the support, and was re-elected in 2023 when he beat Dr. Mpho Phalatse with almost 83% of the support.

Steenhuisen says the DA's "next big hurdle" is next year's local government elections. South Africans will most likely elect their municipal representatives in November 2026, while the DA's leadership election, its federal congress, to take place as early as May.

“We have the momentum behind us now, and I would like to see the road through,” says Steenhuisen.

However, he admits that the job is challenging and that it demands a lot from him, and that he has therefore not yet made a final decision on his candidacy.

“Being the party leader is a very big job, and it is a full-time job, and it comes with enormous sacrifices. Something has to be sacrificed, and usually it is family time, personal time and personal health.

“But man, I love this party and I have been a member of this party since my late teens and I just want to see him perform. I know what he can do and I want to be part of that journey.”

So far, no DA members have raised their hands to challenge Steenhuisen for the top job, although Cape Town mayor Geordin Hill-Lewis has indicated that he will compete for the top job if Steenhuisen is not available again.

There are rumours from the Steenhuisen camp that Cilliers Brink, former mayor of Tshwane, is reportedly looking to run for the top job, but Brink confirmed on Friday that he has again put his name in the hat to be the DA’s mayoral candidate in Tshwane.

“My focus is on Tshwane. I have unfinished business here,” says Brink.
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John hasn't made a final decision to run for Leader again next year. Sounds a bit weary tbh...

 
Inertia said:
The DA can only win polls and Tshwane townships are feeling the service delivery. Why has our resident cadre disappeared?
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On that point, there is a by-election in Tshwane this week in a DA-held ward...not the safest of wards for the DA, but they should still manage to hold on. The EFF actually got 22% in this ward, but I believe they will decrease a lot as it's where many students reside (Hatfield) and they ain't turning out in a by-election. I was going to also say it'd be interesting to see how Auction SA fare (they came a distant 2nd in 2021 and about 5th or 6th in 2024) but once again, they have failed to put up a candidate, lol.
 
The_Right_Honourable_Brit said:
On that point, there is a by-election in Tshwane this week in a DA-held ward...not the safest of wards for the DA, but they should still manage to hold on. The EFF actually got 22% in this ward, but I believe they will decrease a lot as it's where many students reside (Hatfield) and they ain't turning out in a by-election. I was going to also say it'd be interesting to see how Auction SA fare (they came a distant 2nd in 2021 and about 5th or 6th in 2024) but once again, they have failed to put up a candidate, lol.
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I went to check. Candidates are VF+, DA, ANC and EFF.
 
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