Sapref's production pause means job cuts, but less load-shedding - Schussler

[Jan]

Shutdown of South Africa's biggest fuel refinery — what it means for jobs and power cuts

The impending shutdown of the South African Petroleum Refiners (Sapref) joint venture between Shell Downstream South Africa and BP will result in thousands of job losses and help reduce the likelihood of load-shedding.

That is according to an analysis of the closure's potential impact by well-known economist Mike Schussler.

 

[Solitude]

I can't keep up with all the success stories.

 

[grok]

Surprise, we'll still have loadshedding. Guaranteed..

 

[ToxicBunny]

Oh FFS, so now the government is possibly going to try and buy the refinery and keep it running...

Yay, billions in bailouts coming to fund Gweezys retirement again.

Knobheads, Shell/BP are shutting it down because it costs too much to run, and will cost too much to upgrade.

 

[Sarg3_ZN]

Surprise, we'll still have loadshedding. Guaranteed..

The grand decolonization plan is coming along nicely comrade, soon we won't have load shedding cause no one will be using electricity

 

[RonSwanson]

Oh FFS, so now the government is possibly going to try and buy the refinery and keep it running...

Yay, billions in bailouts coming to fund Gweezys retirement again.

Knobheads, Shell/BP are shutting it down because it costs too much to run, and will cost too much to upgrade.

Only two Sasol refineries left over, and they run on <tara-dish> coal.

Samson Gwede Mantashe, the Pablo Escobar of South African energy, has got it all under control.

 

[Benedict A55h0le not]

Only two Sasol refineries left over, and they run on <tara-dish> coal.

Samson Gwede Mantashe, the Pablo Escobar of South African energy, has got it all under control.

Just his gut size, its not under control.

 

[cr@zydude]

Only two Sasol refineries left over, and they run on <tara-dish> coal.

Samson Gwede Mantashe, the Pablo Escobar of South African energy, has got it all under control.

NATREF does not run on coal.

 

[Kodi]

Lol at title.

It's like a doctor informing a m/v accident patient that unfortunately one leg must be amputated and now won't need to buy shoes in pairs.

 

[RonSwanson]

NATREF does not run on coal.

True, but how many B/d does it produce? I'd surprised if it's even 25%.
And six months ago the bosses were mulling storage and blending for it.

 

[neoprema]

Oh FFS, so now the government is possibly going to try and buy the refinery and keep it running...

Yay, billions in bailouts coming to fund Gweezys retirement again.

Knobheads, Shell/BP are shutting it down because it costs too much to run, and will cost too much to upgrade.

FTFY...

 

[elf_lord_ZC5]

Yay!!!!

The Unions win again, cheaper to import fuel, than to produce locally.

Buy them a Bells - not.

 

[cr@zydude]

True, but how many B/d does it produce? I'd surprised if it's even 25%.
And six months ago the bosses were mulling storage and blending for it.

NATREF processes 108 thousand barrels per day. That was 15% of SA's capacity when we had 6 refineries running.

SAPIA - South African Petroleum Industry Association

 

[ToxicBunny]

Yay!!!!

The Unions win again, cheaper to import fuel, than to produce locally.

Buy them a Bells - not.

Oddly enough this has very little to do with the Unions directly, and more to do with the fact that the cost to upgrade the Refinery is deemed unfeasible as far as I understand it.

 

[elf_lord_ZC5]

Oddly enough this has very little to do with the Unions directly, and more to do with the fact that the cost to upgrade the Refinery is deemed unfeasible as far as I understand it.

No not directly, but it is a given that the upgrades are expensive. But the Union generated, issues, create too much of an uncertainty, for them to invest that sort of money. A bridge to far, so to say.

 

[ToxicBunny]

No not directly, but it is a given that the upgrades are expensive. But the Union generated, issues, create too much of an uncertainty, for them to invest that sort of money. A bridge to far, so to say.

Oh I know the Union shenanigans helped seal the fate of the refinery, but that fate was an almost certainty even without the Union shenanigans given the size of the market and the cost to upgrade the refinery

 

[elf_lord_ZC5]

Oh I know the Union shenanigans helped seal the fate of the refinery, but that fate was an almost certainty even without the Union shenanigans given the size of the market and the cost to upgrade the refinery

I know the Union shenanigans have a bearing, but don't want to guess the degree.

 

[ToxicBunny]

I know the Union shenanigans have a bearing, but don't want to guess the degree.

So doing some digging (and admittedly very light)

The cost to upgrade all the refineries in SA to meet the governments own requirements is about $4bn, and there had been no finality from the government on how the refineries would recoup this investment so they obviously put them on hold given that the margins in refining are probably beyond razor thin.

So SAPREF is an entirely spectacular own goal from Gweezys crew very likely.

 

[elf_lord_ZC5]

So doing some digging (and admittedly very light)

The cost to upgrade all the refineries in SA to meet the governments own requirements is about $4bn, and there had been no finality from the government on how the refineries would recoup this investment so they obviously put them on hold given that the margins in refining are probably beyond razor thin.

So SAPREF is an entirely spectacular own goal from Gweezys crew very likely.

Then, they want to buy the refinery, themselves - and the government requirements will evaporate somewhere ...

 

[ToxicBunny]

Then, they want to buy the refinery, themselves - and the government requirements will evaporate somewhere ...

Nah they won't evaporate, we'll provide a bailout to the tune of 3x (at least) what it should cost to do the upgrade...

All in the name of protecting a few thousand jobs of course, and funding Gweezy's retirement.