Sasol to invest billions in SA

RompelStompel

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Something positive for a change :)

Petrochemicals group Sasol is set to spend R45bn on capital investment projects over the next three years, with more than half of the amount being spent on local projects.

Sasol, one of the biggest capital investors in SA, said in its latest biannual newsletter to investors released yesterday that about 60%, or R27bn, of that capital would be spent in the local economy on a range of projects to expand capacity and maintain operations.

Under the three-year programme, Sasol will spend R14bn next year and the same amount in 2008, with the figure rising to R17bn in 2009. In the past financial year Sasol spent R13bn.

About 75% of the total is earmarked for projects in the strategic energy sector.

These include a commencement of production capacity expansion of 20% at Sasol Synfuels, upgrades at the Natref oil refinery, which would restore Natref’s capacity to its full design capacity of 108000 barrels a day, and expanding the Mozambique-Secunda pipeline to a capacity of 183-million gigajoules a year.

Apart from current projects under way, Sasol is assessing the viability of building a fourth coal-to-liquids plant in SA with a potential capacity of 80000 barrels a day. If these plans become a reality, spending would dwarf the group’s current outlay.

A project of this scope would see the group spend as much as R48bn over five years, investment house Merrill Lynch projected in a recent report.

While Sasol has had discussions with government on the possibility of a new coal-to-liquids plant, the envisaged project is now at a pre-feasibility stage.

This means Sasol is examining issues such as the availability of sufficient coal reserves, utility supply, fuel demand growth in southern Africa and possible plant locations.

“We believe there is a real opportunity to partner with government to meet the needs of the country’s growing liquid fuel requirements,” said Sasol CEO Pat Davies.

If the project gets the nod it would be the largest single capital investment in SA in decades.

A project of this scope would also be in line with government’s desire to diversify energy sources and holds huge promise for the country’s balance of payments.

According to Merrill Lynch’s report, the demand for fuel in SA increased 12,3% between 2001 and last year, while refining capacity over the same period grew only 6,2%.

The country could opt to import more oil to meet growing demand, but that would come at a cost.

A new coal-to-liquids facility was the most attractive option for SA as a whole, Merrill Lynch said.

With the country now spending about 15% of its total import bill on oil, increased domestic production could constitute a considerable saving in foreign exchange while going some way to temper SA’s dependence on foreign suppliers.

The prospects of Sasol injecting a further R48bn into the local economy is likely to be a factor treasury will take into consideration when it considers a mooted windfall tax on Sasol. A decision on the tax is expected next year.

In its update on offshore projects, Sasol said start-up had resumed at Oryx, its 34000-barrels- a-day plant in Qatar. The project was delayed by a failure in the supporting utility steam superheater, but that damage has been repaired.

The plant is on track to produce its first product by the end of this month.
 
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Nod

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Hopefully they'll spend some money on Bio-Diesel developments. I feel it's really the only way to go for fuel.
 

xtermin8or

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we will only get bio-diesel and alternative fuels once someone figures out how to make hobos of cash from it - there is a bio-diesel refinery in sasolburg or somewhere - heard it on 702 - not sure now if you can buy the diesel
 

jontyB

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A very large percentage of local diesel is manufactured from coal - i.e. synthetic. Sasol is looking to increase their bio diesel efforts significantly in the next 2 years.
 

jontyB

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we will only get bio-diesel and alternative fuels once someone figures out how to make hobos of cash from it - there is a bio-diesel refinery in sasolburg or somewhere - heard it on 702 - not sure now if you can buy the diesel

Sasol makes a lot of money thanks to the way fuel prices are protected by the government. Sasol, in fact make up to 12 times more than the traditional importing fuel companies.
 

diabolus

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Sasol, one of the biggest capital investors in SA, said in its latest biannual newsletter to investors released yesterday that about 60%, or R27bn, of that capital would be spent in the local economy on a range of projects to expand capacity and maintain operations.


Not to be negative, but err...what would Sasol have done otherwise? Thats like saying Vodacom will spend 60% of their capital to expand their coverage in SA [and 40% on other international stuff] .....isnt that like "duh" ?

..or is Sasol not a South African company?

Now if say BMW or IBM or a non-sa company came and said that..different story.
 

Rkootknir

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Sasol makes a lot of money thanks to the way fuel prices are protected by the government. Sasol, in fact make up to 12 times more than the traditional importing fuel companies.
How do you manage to arrive at this? Sasol's costs per barrel is around $15 - $20. Your average Middle Eastern sheikh (most of our imported oil comes from Iran) pumps the oil out of the ground at a cost of around $4 - $8 per barrel.

Fuel prices aren't protected in SA. The consumer (and importing refineries) is "protected" from differential pricing. The fact is SA doesn't have enough oil, so the coastal refineries have to import oil. Oil is an internationally traded commodity and so government cannot affect the cost thereof (maybe by subsidy, but that would just involve a transfer of costs from one sector to another). As such, even if Sasol could produce oil at a lower price (technology is being improved all the time, but they're still far behind the Middle East), higher priced oil would necessarily still have to be used.

Sasol makes a lot of money, yes, but the traditional oil companies make a lot more.
Not to be negative, but err...what would Sasol have done otherwise? Thats like saying Vodacom will spend 60% of their capital to expand their coverage in SA [and 40% on other international stuff] .....isnt that like "duh" ?

..or is Sasol not a South African company?

Now if say BMW or IBM or a non-sa company came and said that..different story.
The problem is that countries like the US, India & China are giving tax cuts & other incentives to companies like Sasol in order to reduce their dependence on Middle Eastern oil.

In SA, the government wants to make Sasol pay windfall taxes. In other words, Sasol would probably want to invest more in SA, if government weren't thinking of imposing this tax.
 
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jontyB

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How do you manage to arrive at this? Sasol's costs per barrel is around $15 - $20. Your average Middle Eastern sheikh (most of our imported oil comes from Iran) pumps the oil out of the ground at a cost of around $4 - $8 per barrel.

Fuel prices aren't protected in SA. The consumer (and importing refineries) is "protected" from differential pricing. The fact is SA doesn't have enough oil, so the coastal refineries have to import oil. Oil is an internationally traded commodity and so government cannot affect the cost thereof (maybe by subsidy, but that would just involve a transfer of costs from one sector to another). As such, even if Sasol could produce oil at a lower price (technology is being improved all the time, but they're still far behind the Middle East), higher priced oil would necessarily still have to be used.

Sasol makes a lot of money, yes, but the traditional refiners make a lot more.

What are you talking about? Fuel prices are very much protected and regulated in South Africa. The retail price of fuel is dictated by the South African government. I'm not talking about refinery, I am talking about margins at the pump - and this is where Sasol makes way more than anyone else.
 

Rkootknir

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What are you talking about? Fuel prices are very much protected and regulated in South Africa. The retail price of fuel is dictated by the South African government. I'm not talking about refinery, I am talking about margins at the pump - and this is where Sasol makes way more than anyone else.
Why would Sasol sell its oil at a lower price in SA (in other words, use a lower input cost than the other refineries) than which it can obtain on the international markets?

The input opportunity costs (for refined products) are the same (oil from Sasol itself or overseas) for both Sasol and the other refineries. Refining costs are usually quite similar.

Sure the price is regulated. However, would this price change when it's deregulated? The input costs stay the same (remember, oil is internationally priced). I would imagine that all that would happen is that the fuel price would move upward in the Highveld (not enough refining capacity to supply demand + transport bottlenecks from the coast) and stay level at the coast.
 

diabolus

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Rkootknir said:
How do you manage to arrive at this? Sasol's costs per barrel is around $15 - $20. Your average Middle Eastern sheikh (most of our imported oil comes from Iran) pumps the oil out of the ground at a cost of around $4 - $8 per barrel.

Supply chain logistics i'd imagine? Doesn't matter what it costs the Sheikh to pump it out of the ground, its not the sheikh importing the oil. Someone bigger like BP/Engen/Shell prolly "imports" it from the sheikh [most certainly not at $4-$8 a barrel] ..by the time it hits the petrol station the total costs might be $25 per barrel? Surely every time an item need to "Exchange hands" some additional "profit margin" is added...

Now Sasol skips that whole process, so if it costs them $15 and they sell it at the "protected" price...they make profit all the way.

Whether it's 12 times dunno, but i can imagine Sasol -should- theoretically make more profit than a secondary [or even lower down the supply chain] importer ...

Sasol in SA is basically the equivalent of the Iranian Sheikh putting up his own petrol station and selling directly to the consumer. Surely that's a HUGE advantage over BP/SHell/Engen, who needs to get the oil here from Iran first....
 
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jontyB

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Why would Sasol sell its oil at a lower price in SA (in other words, use a lower input cost than the other refineries) than which it can obtain on the international markets?

The input opportunity costs (for refined products) are the same (oil from Sasol itself or overseas) for both Sasol and the other refineries. Refining costs are usually quite similar.

Sure the price is regulated. However, would this price change when it's deregulated? The input costs stay the same (remember, oil is internationally priced). I would imagine that all that would happen is that the fuel price would move upward in the Highveld (not enough refining capacity to supply demand + transport bottlenecks from the coast) and stay level at the coast.
I think it would, if the retailers were allowed to compete they may just try. I remember Pick 'n Pay tried..... Anyway, that's besides the point. My point was on Diesel Sasol makes a killing.
 

Rkootknir

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I think it would, if the retailers were allowed to compete they may just try. I remember Pick 'n Pay tried..... Anyway, that's besides the point. My point was on Diesel Sasol makes a killing.
Compared to SA refiners they make a killing. Internationally, however, the profits from the oil majors (Exxon, Shell & BP) are in quite a different league entirely...
 

jontyB

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Compared to SA refiners they make a killing. Internationally, however, the profits from the oil majors (Exxon, Shell & BP) are in quite a different league entirely...
I am not comparing them to the monopolistic practices seen abroad.... anyway, kind of a pointless discussion this has now become.
 

telkomsuig

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As long as Sasol can beat their Cost of capital it does not really matter what the sheiks can pump oil at. The fact is those markets are closed to Sasol and exploration of possible new fields is an expensive process.

Tax incentives by gvt (unlikely though) would make sense as it would the investment even more attractive.
 
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