I've been running netflow on the peering link since we received the letter. There's almost no traffic to and from SEACOM. Obviously that's for us. This will vary between ISPs. For example someone could like in a SEACOM estate and work on a server hosted at what used to be Hetzner. If SEACOM de peer Hetzner, that end user's traffic's going to go halfway around the world. That's when people vote with their feet.
Paul B and I have two of the three largest peering networks in SA. We'll get what's needed from SEACOM via other peers.
It could be a problem for people who are cheating the system and tapping data off their Netflix caches. I suspect there are more than one or two people messing with DNS to point Netflix cache to SEACOM over NAPAfrica, JINX or CINX. I can't prove this, but with Netflix traffic accouting for something like 17% of the global internet traffic, people can get desperate. Desperate cats make desperate moves.
If I were SEACOM and my Netflix cache was being drained by all and sundry, yet I was having to pay to keep it topped up, I'd also de peer everyone.
These are my personal opinions - not the opinions of Cape Connect.
@cavedog Generally there's a policy of "commercial before peering" when it comes to IP Transit. That's why I started peering like a rampant prozzie when we still purchased IPT from Neotel back in the day. I'm sure SEACOM's wholesale clients will very quickly learn how BGP filtering works and ensure that important stuff doesn't go anywhere near their IPT.