Solar MD launches first gigawatt battery plant in Africa

Username: Required said:
Sorry, I’m not sure I understand. Why would a semiconductor foundry be needed in this context?
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It's not. It's OT, but related, in the sense that to the extent that manufacturing critical energy components locally is a valuable thing, a semiconductor industry is foundational.

SA sets a very low bar for itself when we celebrate stacking some Chinese-made cells into a pack and call that our manufacturing industry.
 
Tomtomtom said:
It's not. It's OT, but related, in the sense that to the extent that manufacturing critical energy components locally is a valuable thing, a semiconductor industry is foundational.

SA sets a very low bar for itself when we celebrate stacking some Chinese-made cells into a pack and call that our manufacturing industry.
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We used to make nuclear bombs, just saying.
 
Tomtomtom said:
SA sets a very low bar for itself when we celebrate stacking some Chinese-made cells into a pack and call that our manufacturing industry.
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Correct, I have been saying it for a long time. SA doesn't mind Chinesium, in fact, they're getting excited by all the BAIC, HAVAL, and other Chinese tat on offer in SA at inflated prices.
 
If solar md is local, why are their batteries so expensive compared to the competition?
 
Tomtomtom said:
Sorry to be a grinch but "the rest" is the boring part. That's just bagging the Nik Naks.

I'm not much of a hawk but it's a growing national security imperative around the world that countries in-shore lithium cell manufacturing.

Speaking of which does SA have a single semiconductor foundry?
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The reality is that such a move would require massive investment, including in mining of Lithium. I think we only produce small amounts of Lithium with one mine (Blesberg) that's running through already mined deposits to pull up lithium, and then a small-scale operation in Port Shepstone (Highbury). Not sure of any others. I don't think you can fault SolarMD for their approach. They are part of the value chain... as it is, their product is already a bit more expensive than some imports. I think they would be soundly beaten by the economies of scale of china... and I can guarantee you would not pay double for a battery given your options.

To get what you want... we need structural changes, investments in mining, government subsidies on local battery production and / or tariffs on imports. Hardly any of this is on SolarMD.

What we do have with them however is a build up of local expertise that can build and customize systems within this country.. that's a capability we just don't get with fully imported systems. They can always swap out cells when local production of those becomes feasible.
 
Tomtomtom said:
It's not. It's OT, but related, in the sense that to the extent that manufacturing critical energy components locally is a valuable thing, a semiconductor industry is foundational.

SA sets a very low bar for itself when we celebrate stacking some Chinese-made cells into a pack and call that our manufacturing industry.
Click to expand...
100% agree... we don't have enough local manufacturing, especially for electronics... and it's not because we don't have the talent.. But we do need to be spending more on investment in this space. A lot more.
 
Tomtomtom said:
It's not. It's OT, but related, in the sense that to the extent that manufacturing critical energy components locally is a valuable thing, a semiconductor industry is foundational.

SA sets a very low bar for itself when we celebrate stacking some Chinese-made cells into a pack and call that our manufacturing industry.
Click to expand...
Even Intel was struggling to be competitive and had to have lots of their items made in Taiwan

If they struggle what hope is there for SA

How many players in fab?
 
Tomtomtom said:
It's not. It's OT, but related, in the sense that to the extent that manufacturing critical energy components locally is a valuable thing, a semiconductor industry is foundational.

SA sets a very low bar for itself when we celebrate stacking some Chinese-made cells into a pack and call that our manufacturing industry.
Click to expand...
They’ll most likely manufacture the cells themselves once they have the capital. Right now, I think the issue is that it’s just not feasible. China has a significant supply chain advantage, especially when it comes to raw materials and refining capacity. They also benefit from much lower manufacturing costs due to economies of scale and cheaper labor.

That said, I share your concern about Chinese products flooding our market. It’s important for South Africa to develop its own manufacturing capabilities over time, but we need to be realistic about the challenges. Building a competitive cell manufacturing facility requires massive investment, infrastructure, and expertise, all of which take time to develop.

In the meantime, leveraging the best cells available while focusing on adding value through local engineering, BMS design, and manufacturing is a smart approach. It’s a step toward something bigger.
 
MrGray said:
"...capable of producing up to 3GWh of energy storage annually".

I don't want to be negative but that's about 6 mins of Eskom's peak output. So they will produce enough batteries annually to keep the grid going for about 5mins.

Which gives one an idea of just how much energy storage would be required to completely power the grid on renewables when the sun isn't shining or the wind blowing.
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Eskoms peak output for a while has been 28GW give or take. Less if we don't include the insanely expensive diesel "gas" turbines they like to use for peaking everything.

1733636632724.png

Via - x.com/CliveSA/status/1762086601813885163/photo/1

So, you're off by a factor of 10. I fail basic math!

3GWh would give a little over an hour for the entire country. Not bad at all.
You can see Covid effect on the demand reduced consumption for 2021,2022, 2023 bounced back up and 2024 dropped considerably, as more GW of panels and batteries are being installed. Even overnight demand is reduced now, which shows battery installs making a big impact.


That said, we've imported far more battery than that YoY for a few years now. 2023 was I think close to if not slightly over 12GWh imported. Going to have to try find some stats for you.


The value of lithium-ion battery imports, meanwhile, reached $1.75-billion last year, more than double the $730-million recorded in the prior year.

“At an average of $139/kWh, that's about 12.5 GWh, or about 3.8 GW to 5.0 GW of capacity.”
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itareanlnotani said:
Eskoms peak output for a while has been 28GW give or take. Less if we don't include the insanely expensive diesel "gas" turbines they like to use for peaking everything.

View attachment 1779548

Via - x.com/CliveSA/status/1762086601813885163/photo/1

So, you're off by a factor of 10.

3GWh would give a little over an hour for the entire country. Not bad at all.
You can see Covid effect on the demand reduced consumption for 2021,2022, 2023 bounced back up and 2024 dropped considerably, as more GW of panels and batteries are being installed. Even overnight demand is reduced now, which shows battery installs making a big impact.


That said, we've imported far more battery than that YoY for a few years now. 2023 was I think close to if not slightly over 12GWh imported. Going to have to try find some stats for you.

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3GWh divide 28GW = 0.1h can power the country for around 6 minutes.
 
itareanlnotani said:
Yeah, look at me doing dof math.

This years peak is 26GW/h give or take, so its closer to 7 minutes now.
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Yeah I don't really think anyone was expecting one little factory to supply a whole country's storage requirements.
 
shogun said:
Yeah I don't really think anyone was expecting one little factory to supply a whole country's storage requirements.
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It just shows the scale of the problem. We need about 300GWh (imho) to start making a dent. This factory will take 100 years.
 
wingnut771 said:
It just shows the scale of the problem. We need about 300GWh (imho) to start making a dent. This factory will take 100 years.
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All the scales in this industry look crazy. Amazing it works at all.

For every 1000 MW of coal-fired power, we burn about 400 tons of coal per hour. Over 100 kg per second. In the middle of the night we're shovelling about 2 tons a second in SA.

And that's been going on for decades.

I'm a skeptic generally but I'd never bet against a technical challenge because of scale alone.
 
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