South Africa’s dark future if Zuma is not stopped

TheChamp

Honorary Master
Joined
Feb 26, 2011
Messages
40,442
May more Jacksons and Sipho Pityana's please come to the fore and speak their minds without fear.
 

Milano

Honorary Master
Joined
Feb 7, 2004
Messages
16,681
  • The reshuffle or exit of Gordhan, following the charges, would be the first shock.
  • This will be followed by digestion of his replacement candidate, as was seen during NeneGate.
  • This would be followed by a downgrade from S&P; followed by negative statements from the other two agencies.
  • Treasury, under new leadership, would sign off guarantees to SOEs, like SAA, and sign off on the nuclear deal, which would be substantially negative balance sheet shocks for the market.
  • South Africa would then have negative data and a likely recession.
  • Key personnel would leave the National Treasury, which would lead to a deeper erosion of its institutional quality.
  • Ultimately, this would lead to a rand crash that South Africa would not recover from, as was the case when Nene was fired.

  • Gordhan is formally charged in court on 2 November.
  • Zuma will suspend Gordhan and allow him the opportunity to prove his innocence in court.
  • A cabinet reshuffle will occur and a new Finance Minister will be appointed – Brian Molefe seems to be the most likely candidate.
  • Molefe will be malleable to the Zupta’s will. He will approve the nuclear build programme, which will cripple the country economically.
  • South Africa will be downgraded to junk status by the ratings agencies.
  • Deficits will balloon, and South Africa will require an IMF bailout.
  • We live in a country where the President has gone rogue. He couldn’t care less about the people he serves. He couldn’t care less about the economic damage he is doing.


Sounds about right.
 
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