South Africa, the next 5 years [discussion]

WaxLyrical

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I'm afraid we've reached the point of no return in creating a rainbow nation, simply because Eskom is beyond repair and without effective power generation things will only go downhill.
I'd like to have positive outlook but the glaring evidence that were headed for financial is becoming more of a reality with each passing moment.

Those that are drunk with corruption will only continue to do rape and pillage out resources only to be replaced by more cadres who are just waiting for their turn at the trough.

Apartheid never went away its just been repackaged.
 

Polymathic

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Ramaphosa literally needs handouts from China and other countries if he wants to turn this around anytime soon
 

signates

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Came home to this today. 75 metres away from my back door and too close for comfort.
 

The Voice

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Came home to this today. 75 metres away from my back door and too close for comfort.
Was staying with friends in Van Der Stel a couple of years ago when I went back to SA for a wedding. Round about 17:30 I suddenly see hundreds of people - could have been a thousand - running down the street towards Strand. My friend says it happens every day: they'd just gotten off the train that pulled into the station and are heading back home to Nomzamo.

The whole area has changed significantly since I went to school down the road at Hotties 20 years ago.
 

lkswan747

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We looking at a pretty bleak picture and have thus decided to become an ostrich and bury my head in the sand.
 

TehStranger

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I have have immigrated to France in 2015 and stopped investing in SA. I only have a few assets there are I am only 30 years old. My parents and family however are still there and have no intention of leaving the country. My view is that many South Africans should prepare for likely scenarios of the future. We all have different circumstances and perhaps different points of view, but what is sure is that we are going to see big change coming soon.
Similar situation here. 29, emigrated in 2017 and didn't look back. I still have some assets in SA (Like my house, which I rent out) but beyond that no additional investment in the country. Parents won't leave, they're sticking around do or die.

I don't have a positive outlook on SA in the short term. 5 year isn't much time, so I'm happy to wait it out. There are multiple ongoing situations (Eskom, Ramaphosa vs Ace/EFF/Public Protector, etc) that I'm keeping an eye on to see how the future plays out. What do I think will happen? I'm not sure, but I'll be keeping my house in SA as a fall back just in case. If **** hits the fan and I lose everything, meh. Even if things improve dramatically (we're talking first-world levels in the next 15 years) I probably wouldn't come back before living in different parts of the world (currently in Europe).

In terms of the scenarios you describe, of course I hope for the first. I think the fourth (small gated communities) is already part of the status quo in large parts of the country (across all ends of the spectrum). Second scenario seems possible.
 

ɹǝuuᴉM

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The fifth scenario is where big countries jump in to rescue ZA from their follies .
Hopefully this will never happens as the outcomes will be horrible.
Even though there is a huge number or Europeans living here.
I just wonder what all the illegal outsiders will do once the economy go south.
I have this funny feeling I am going to live through this in person.
That "huge" number of Europeans is actually not that huge anymore. Back in the '60s there were almost 20%. Today the number is already less than half that and even worse - it is decreasing fast. Keep in mind, the "non local" Europeans are mere tourists. They will go back home in a heart beat. The Afrikaner white will stay longer and try to keep "the boat" afloat. Sadly, this is the ethnic group hated most by blacks. Things began unraveling when the ANC chased Mbeki away. There is no escape for South Africa. The world is watching as it did with Zimbabwe. But nobody will do a thing. Nobody wants to be "a racist". Live with it.
 
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air

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I would be keen to hear if anyone is thinking of selling their home, reducing pension contributions(taxable), resigning from work to draw pension( taxable) etc. to try and ensure moving as much offshore as possible?
 

jambai

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I would be keen to hear if anyone is thinking of selling their home, reducing pension contributions(taxable), resigning from work to draw pension( taxable) etc. to try and ensure moving as much offshore as possible?
Think lots of people doing that
 

mountainboy

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I would be keen to hear if anyone is thinking of selling their home, reducing pension contributions(taxable), resigning from work to draw pension( taxable) etc. to try and ensure moving as much offshore as possible?
I am, busy liquidating all assets, no extra funds into pension, having an independent financial consultant draw a plan to move funds offshore, setting things up to leave immediately if need be

Leaving our primary home for last though
 

richjdavies

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Interesting thread guys. I'm an immigrant in SA (wife is SAffer) for the past 6 years.
When I lived in London, I did get a bit sick of the Saffer-in-London negativity about it all "going Zim"

When I moved here I used to ignore the "hater" but I am starting to think that the Eskom/Gupta/PublicProtector thing will never be fixed... Ramaphoria is long gone, and it really doesn't look like anything promised is being fixed or delivered...

Maybe the gov'ment just isn't capable of reform? Maybe a good old fashioned currency run? (23/GBP was the best :))

(do love the "government working for the people" in the UK comment though, I'm not sure the UK is the best model right now!)
 

Crayons

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I think we need to start talking about the short term prospects of South Africa and especially the next 5 years. What are your scenarios and how are you planning for the future? What do you think the country will most likely look like?

I am asking this question, because of the recent trends in the economy. There are a few red flags for me. I am also basing it on the experience that my family in Zimbabwe faced in the 90s and that of my girlfriend who is from Iran. Countries that seem 'relatively stable' can go backwards to the point of the abyss, but at the same time they can also recover.

What often escapes us is that individuals very often have little to no control over the larger events in the country, but they can prepare for the immediate future given what the currently know is happening. I believe that we need to start talking about this, as opposed to going with the flow and waiting for things to happen.

So let's look at the current situation on South Africa and the current political/economically analysis out there.

Many prominent writers such as RW Johnson has been predicting constitutional change in SA. Johnson's argument was largely based on the economy and the price of gold. South Africa historically has been heavily dependent on foreign investment to keep the mines and industry flowing. The union activities in the last few years coupled with ESKOM and the blatant mismanagement of SOEs are forcing SA over the fiscal cliff. I believe that we are approaching it soon. He does not go on to say what the change might be or what concessions might happen.


The next opinion that I would like to highlight is that of Dr. Frans Cronje of the institute of race relations, who has been the most active voice in fighting EWC. His book 'the time travelers guide' for SA sketches out 4 scenarios for the future. They are to my mind at least based on the political compass model.
View attachment 695701

Th first scenario is the rainbow nation one, which essentially puts SA with a mixed economy, but with the necessary reform to take us to be a developing nation. This was one that I personally am hoping for, but it does seem unlikely with the current ANC's ideology.
The second scenario is a Venezuela, a socialist hellhole where EWC results in a Zimbabwe style situation.
The third scenario was based on a Rwanda/Singapore style democracy. Essentially an authoritarian government, but with significant free market reforms. I doubt that this one will happen, because it requires an effective civil service.
The fourth scenario is a 'libertarian society' that drifts further into a federal like state where the small gated communities becomes the norm and self functioning on their own.

While many people in SA would welcome a constitutional reform, I believe that it is a dangerous idea if we do not consider that each time that SA did have a reform it was coupled with lots of violence. I am refering to the 1900s, 1932, 1948, 1994 etc. In each of these occasions we hadmassive debt problems and capital flows out of the country. My view is that SA might be facing an IMF bailout sometimes next year and it is just impossible to get rid of the SOEs and especially ESKOM's debt.

In order to country many of these effects,
I have have immigrated to France in 2015 and stopped investing in SA. I only have a few assets there are I am only 30 years old. My parents and family however are still there and have no intention of leaving the country. My view is that many South Africans should prepare for likely scenarios of the future. We all have different circumstances and perhaps different points of view, but what is sure is that we are going to see big change coming soon.
Hi everyone, I'm a long time reader first time poster. When I saw your post I knew I had to find out, where did you manage to find an Iranian girl? Asking for a friend.
 

Chinmaya

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May 9, 2016
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Very grim. It is going to be worse than what it is. No system in place to protect consumers/tax payers. Everything is there to protect the interest if those that are in charge.

The system has been such that if you do not adapt to it, you will be thrown out becuase you are not corrupt and adhere to their way of doing things.
 

REAList_1

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Oct 12, 2011
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I see an Arab Spring in the future.
The guvament is ignoring how warlike the different people in this country is.
With no real police or army to stop it.....
 

Thor

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IMF bailout which will come with serious conditions. Most likely a US military presence to keep Africa as we will become more and more Chinese and Russian so country could be used as a way point for resources.
 

Chris_the_Brit

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IMF bailout which will come with serious conditions. Most likely a US military presence to keep Africa as we will become more and more Chinese and Russian so country could be used as a way point for resources.
Excuse me? A US military presence? Dafuq you on?
 

^^vampire^^

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I have always said 2019 is the year that decides whether I stay or whether I go. Being mugged recently in a usually safe area has pushed me into the latter camp, but I am giving the reformists in govt until the end of the year to make a big splash on SOMETHING. Whether that's:
<snip>
My personal advice to you and everyone else is if you're looking to make plans to get out then now is better than later. You perhaps already have your exit strategy in place but many don't and they wait until it's too late and then they have no options.

I got my Aus visa in 2015. At the time all my friends showed great interest but either said they'll wait it out or started the process but dragged their feet. I needed 60 points for my visa in 2015... the same visa now requires 75-80. Lawyers etc now need 90-95, up from 70. Friends that wanted to join in Aus effectively blocked themselves off and had to move to less desirable countries and 90% waited so long that they no longer have a realistic opportunity to move abroad. People also need to remember that you don't just decide to leave and go the next week. Acquiring a visa to a decent country can take years of preparation, especially now that the entry requirements are rapidly increasing. For me the process was pretty straight forward and simple, for others they need to study to get points, do the English test 5-10 times (score well) to get those crucial 5 extra points, to conversion exams that are costly etc etc.

My point being rather plan and create your exit strategy now and have the option rather than stonewalling yourself and having no options at all.
 

Cryptonomics

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Jun 25, 2019
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South Africa has to get worse before it gets better. It may or may not one day become a well run country, but the way to get there - the only way - is through the complete destruction of the ANC, and to some degree, the collapse of Eskom.

It must happen, because otherwise people will still trust the ANC, and as long as they trust the ANC, the country will stay bad or get worse. I don't want SA to collapse, I really don't, but I think it has to fail so that people stop trusting the ANC.

Also, Eskom has to collapse so that it can be rebuilt. The unions won't allow the retrenchments to happen, so the only way is for a general collapse.
Unfortunately that might not work since people will replace the ANC with EFF.
 

cguy

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My personal advice to you and everyone else is if you're looking to make plans to get out then now is better than later. You perhaps already have your exit strategy in place but many don't and they wait until it's too late and then they have no options.

I got my Aus visa in 2015. At the time all my friends showed great interest but either said they'll wait it out or started the process but dragged their feet. I needed 60 points for my visa in 2015... the same visa now requires 75-80. Lawyers etc now need 90-95, up from 70. Friends that wanted to join in Aus effectively blocked themselves off and had to move to less desirable countries and 90% waited so long that they no longer have a realistic opportunity to move abroad. People also need to remember that you don't just decide to leave and go the next week. Acquiring a visa to a decent country can take years of preparation, especially now that the entry requirements are rapidly increasing. For me the process was pretty straight forward and simple, for others they need to study to get points, do the English test 5-10 times (score well) to get those crucial 5 extra points, to conversion exams that are costly etc etc.

My point being rather plan and create your exit strategy now and have the option rather than stonewalling yourself and having no options at all.
Definitely agree with this. When I moved to the US in the early 2000's, the H1B visa cap would be reached after a few weeks of applications being open. Now they receive 3x more applications than they allow on the first day, resulting in a lottery process to select those whose applications are even considered. It's harder than ever to get in as a skilled immigrant today.
 
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