South African Covid-19 News and Discussions 2

[daelm]

Perhaps what we most need to remember is that it's happened before, Stalin, Hiltler & co. are just fleeting examples.

But they'll tell us all is well, the world is advanced now and A.I. will save us all. A.I. is a man controlled system, not true separate intelligence, and at best computers have the intelligence of an insect, last I heard anyway.

 

[daelm]

I dunno. I know but I don't know.
Thank God I don't have kids who will be punished when I go.

It's morbid **** this. But it needs to be faced.
Wearing a mask for any longer is screwing up my productivity. Can't breathe with this **** on my face.

I.dont.know.

So I rip it off when I'm working. PCB.
Can't see WTF I'm doing.

Yeah. This whole Corona is a mess. I'm sad and pissed off with it.

The UNFORGIVABLE IS THE ANC LOOKING TO TAKE POLITICAL ADVANTAGE OF THIS.

I really hope all the scheming, conniving ****ers die.

South Africa is but a shell of what it used to be before the ANC took over.
We were a THRIVING FARMING country. We produced more than we could consume.

Now we import stuff.

Farmer's were either killed or just gave up. That's the Black Liberation way.

It's been a moerse success everywhere it's been practised. Notably every country in Africa. Yeah.

It always ends the same.

But some don't see it. Some defend the ANC. Blindly. Just defend it.
I guess that's their choice.

That's their right. So they practice it.

Real people however, try to warn. I'm 57 and still learning. And warning.

Champ, the ANC doesn't give a flying **** for you. No matter how much you love or defend them here.

Your ANC has bigger plans. You're gonna be brushed aside when you need them most.

Sad. But they gonna shaft you.

Test it. And see if I'm wrong.

dude, buy some booze and batten down for a bit. it won't look any better in a few days, or probably even years, but you'll feel like you're able to handle it more.

 

[Brian_G]

View attachment 855785

Just don't let them fly my aircraft , the rest we can maybe survive

@gottagoon , it's not just Africa. Look at South America, China, North Korea, etc.

 

[Brian_G]

One conspiracy that doesn't hold water, for now anyway - facial recognition fears, not valid if we have to wear masks for years.

 

[daelm]

all right. **** it. i have to go try and get some rest now. long day at the bottle store tomorrow

 

[daelm]

everyone back here tomorrow night?

 

[gottagoon]

everyone back here tomorrow night?

Sleep time for me.
If the ANC takes booze away I will live with it.
I actually feel f all anymore.
I can't fix this. Us whites have no say in the Eastern Cape.

Take the booze away. Whatever ANC.

Whatever.

 

[Geoff.D]

People in EC and GP get ready to batten down the hatches! You're following our trajectory in the WC!

View attachment 855781

Another example of a graph that everyone can read even colour blind people! This guy is excellent!

 

[gottagoon]

All I will do is punish the stupid votas.
No more love for them.

**** it. I'm gonna sleep.

 

[FlashSA]

People in EC and GP get ready to batten down the hatches! You're following our trajectory in the WC!

View attachment 855781

I briefly popped into Hemingways Mall yesterday at 3:30pm. The place was filled with shoppers loitering around with their shopping goods. Rona coming for them

 

[gottagoon]

So many people here on MBB that see through the ANC. See what's going on.

It's sad that some still support the ANC. I can't stop that thinking or non thinking. Stupidity cannot be fixed.

Stupidity in the case of supporting the ANC is a personal choice.

You wanna be stupid than support the ANC. "and I'm speaking as a toilet technician that prefers to flush turds"

 

[Paulsie]

One conspiracy that doesn't hold water, for now anyway - facial recognition fears, not valid if we have to wear masks for years.

China's already ahead of you there. 1/ iris recognition, 2/ walk pattern recognition, 3/ cellphone tracking

When all 3 are combined, you can be tracked anywhere as China is already doing

 

[Gordon_R]

honestly, i don't think anyone can tell you. Nate Silver's site put up a great post when this all kicked off (link below). there are so many variables in the model, especially related to testing and reach, that all models are pretty moot for the moment.

Why It’s So Freaking Hard To Make A Good COVID-19 Model

Here we are, in the middle of a pandemic, staring out our living room windows like aquarium fish. The question on everybody’s minds: How bad will this really ge…

fivethirtyeight.com

genuinely worth reading. i shared it with all my data geek friends at the time, because it's so hard for them to explain sensitivities and margins to the people they know.

Probably one of the most useful and coherent articles I have read about modelling. Ant the most pointed summary at the end:

Over the next few months, you are going to see many different predictions about COVID-19 outcomes. They won’t all agree. But just because they’re based on assumptions doesn’t mean they’re worthless.

“All models are wrong, it’s striving to make them less wrong and useful in the moment,”

P.S. I would have expected this in the International thread, but everything gets mixed up...

 

[Fox1]

SA needs a two pronged approach to fighting Covid19. One approach to cover WC, EC and another to cover KZN and GP. The cases we're seeing now most likely contacted the virus under Level 4 of the lockdown and some over the transition to Level 3.

WC and EC needs mass community testing like we had in Durban. All test kits should be prioritised to there since there's a supposed shortage.

For KZN and GP greater tracing and testing should be done but at the moment we have opposite strategies between WC and the rest of the country as I understand it.

 

[The_Right_Honourable_Brit]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1269998529126285312

 

[RedViking]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1269998529126285312

I thought Panda and their report is DA motivated. . This confirms it. Doubt the ANC will care what they have to say.

 

[Geoff.D]

Interview Today by eNCA with Prof Karim. Cut short unfortunately by cutting away to Malema's nonsense.

Qn: Why send kids to school?

1. Most other countries are easing their LDs when infections are going down.
2. SA easing the LD when our infections are going up.
3. SA cannot sustain a long-term LD because our cases are likely to rise for several more weeks if not months.
4. What we have is a clearer understanding of now is that children are less susceptible to this virus.
5. If they do become ill it is a milder form, often asymptomatic.
6. Very deaths as a result of children.
7. The disease is relatively safe in children.
8. Do see occasional illnesses in children, but rare, mild and they do recover.
9. Therefore, no reason not to send children to school.

Qn: How are we doing in SA?

1. Overall epidemic [not Prof does NOT talk about a pandemic, I find that significant] in SA is a growing one, with WC leading followed by EC.
2. Cases are rising at a slower but increasing rate in the rest of the country.
3. The epidemic is going to pace itself differently in each province.
4. WC ahead, EC following, because of the communication between the WC and the EC.
5. GP will follow and then the rest.
6. No province will escape an increase.

Qn: Without natural immunity or a vaccine almost everyone may be at risk. In terms of weekly trends and testing, what has SA picked up?

1. Massive difference between SA and most other countries especially the BRICS countries.
2. Most countries in the first 90 days had exponentially growing cases and large numbers of deaths.
3. SA has managed to keep a lid on the overall epidemic.
4. It is growing but at a much lesser rate than elsewhere.
5. SA has a lower death rate as well.
6. The health system so far has coped by and large.
7. We have flattened the curve successfully so far.
8. We will not see as many deaths as seen in other countries.

Qn: Test we are doing over 920 000. Can you fully recover clinically but still have the virus in you?

1. This has been well described.
2. We know that when a person becomes infected, for the first 5- 7 days, the incubation period, they don't have symptoms.
3. Then for two weeks thereafter, they may have symptoms and we will continue to find live virus present if they are tested.
4. The test is +ve from about day 3 to about days 14-21.
5. After about 8 to 10 days infectiousness is much lower and after day 14, most people will no longer be infectious.
6 Even if we still find the virus present, it is not live, bound to antibodies and it is not infectious.


Qn: About social distancing distance and should we take airborne transmission more seriously?

1. 3 ways in which the virus spreads.

a. Direct exposure to little droplets. Become infected if exposed to those droplets.
b. Indirect exposure when droplets contaminate a surface, esp metals, the virus can survive for a long time. Touching the surface and then touching face etc, and get exposure that way.
c. Airborne transmission. Aerosols and virus can become airborne.

2. All three are important, but airborne much less so.

a. Based on household contact studies.
b. People living in close proximity, exposed to the virus, but do not get infected.

3. Direct Spreading reduced with social distancing and 1 meter is a good compromise.
4. Indirect Spreading reduced with regular cleaning of surfaces.

Qn: Race for a vaccine. Manufacture before they know it works while research is still underway. Is this a good approach?

1. Everything we normally do with vaccines is out of the window.
2. Normally take many years. Vaccines are not quick solutions.
3. In covid, we have changed the approach. 14 - 15 trials underway, 2 results released.
4. Must ensure the vaccine will generate an immune response which generates antibodies.
5. Large studies are planned, 10's of thousands of people all over the world. Half with the real vaccine, the other half with a placebo, and then check the rates of antibody formation in the two groups.
6. Can't wait for the outcomes, must at risk start manufacture anyway.

Qn: Testing: Have a test, wait 5 days. Does that make it null and void?

1. No, not completely but the delays and backlogs are a problem.
2. Shortage of test kits all over the world.
3. 15 million kits a month for the next 6 months secured for African countries, we will get a share.
4. Backlog problem is the turn around time.

a. For clinical patients it is critical that the tests are done and completed quickly - we need to know so that the correct treatment can be given.
b. Community testing for control purposes it is not as critical.
c. As soon as we take a swab from somebody, they are called a person under investigation. (PUI)
d. They must self-quarantine immediately.
e. Still take 2-3 days to get a result. If you test +ve you would have to quarantine for 14 days anyway so why not start immediately?

The Malema "breaking news" interrupted the interview.

 

[RedViking]

Interview Today by eNCA with Prof Karim. Cut short unfortunately by cutting away to Malema's nonsense.

Qn: Why send kids to school?

1. Most other countries are easing their LDs when infections are going down.
2. SA easing the LD when our infections are going up.
3. SA cannot sustain a long-term LD because our cases are likely to rise for several more weeks if not months.
4. What we have is a clearer understanding of now is that children are less susceptible to this virus.
5. If they do become ill it is a milder form, often asymptomatic.
6. Very deaths as a result of children.
7. The disease is relatively safe in children.
8. Do see occasional illnesses in children, but rare, mild and they do recover.
9. Therefore, no reason not to send children to school.

Qn: How are we doing in SA?

1. Overall epidemic [not Prof does NOT talk about a pandemic, I find that significant] in SA is a growing one, with WC leading followed by EC.
2. Cases are rising at a slower but increasing rate in the rest of the country.
3. The epidemic is going to pace itself differently in each province.
4. WC ahead, EC following, because of the communication between the WC and the EC.
5. GP will follow and then the rest.
6. No province will escape an increase.

Qn: Without natural immunity or a vaccine almost everyone may be at risk. In terms of weekly trends and testing, what has SA picked up?

1. Massive difference between SA and most other countries especially the BRICS countries.
2. Most countries in the first 90 days had exponentially growing cases and large numbers of deaths.
3. SA has managed to keep a lid on the overall epidemic.
4. It is growing but at a much lesser rate than elsewhere.
5. SA has a lower death rate as well.
6. The health system so far has coped by and large.
7. We have flattened the curve successfully so far.
8. We will not see as many deaths as seen in other countries.

Qn: Test we are doing over 920 000. Can you fully recover clinically but still have the virus in you?

1. This has been well described.
2. We know that when a person becomes infected, for the first 5- 7 days, the incubation period, they don't have symptoms.
3. Then for two weeks thereafter, they may have symptoms and we will continue to find live virus present if they are tested.
4. The test is +ve from about day 3 to about days 14-21.
5. After about 8 to 10 days infectiousness is much lower and after day 14, most people will no longer be infectious.
6 Even if we still find the virus present, it is not live, bound to antibodies and it is not infectious.


Qn: About social distancing distance and should we take airborne transmission more seriously?

1. 3 ways in which the virus spreads.

a. Direct exposure to little droplets. Become infected if exposed to those droplets.
b. Indirect exposure when droplets contaminate a surface, esp metals, the virus can survive for a long time. Touching the surface and then touching face etc, and get exposure that way.
c. Airborne transmission. Aerosols and virus can become airborne.

2. All three are important, but airborne much less so.

a. Based on household contact studies.
b. People living in close proximity, exposed to the virus, but do not get infected.

3. Direct Spreading reduced with social distancing and 1 meter is a good compromise.
4. Indirect Spreading reduced with regular cleaning of surfaces.

Qn: Race for a vaccine. Manufacture before they know it works while research is still underway. Is this a good approach?

1. Everything we normally do with vaccines is out of the window.
2. Normally take many years. Vaccines are not quick solutions.
3. In covid, we have changed the approach. 14 - 15 trials underway, 2 results released.
4. Must ensure the vaccine will generate an immune response which generates antibodies.
5. Large studies are planned, 10's of thousands of people all over the world. Half with the real vaccine, the other half with a placebo, and then check the rates of antibody formation in the two groups.
6. Can't wait for the outcomes, must at risk start manufacture anyway.

Qn: Testing: Have a test, wait 5 days. Does that make it null and void?

1. No, completely but the delays and backlogs are a problem.
2. Shortage of test kits all over the world.
3. 15 million kits a month for the next 6 months secured for African countries, we will get a share.
4. Backlog problem is the turn around time.

a. For clinical patients it is critical that the tests are done and completed quickly - we need to know so that the correct treatment can be given.
b. Community testing for control purposes it is not as critical.
c. As soon as we take a swab from somebody, they are called a person under investigation. (PUI)
d. They must self-quarantine immediately.
e. Still take 2-3 days to get a result. If you test +ve you would have to quarantine for 14 days anyway so why not start immediately?

The Malema "breaking news" interrupted the interview.

Thanks for the write up.

 

[Geoff.D]

Probably one of the most useful and coherent articles I have read about modelling. Ant the most pointed summary at the end:


P.S. I would have expected this in the International thread, but everything gets mixed up...

So, IF you accept this now, why are you so critical when other models show up? You can't agree and accept this article without acknowledging that other models are equally valid and are not worthless.

 

[TheChamp]

I dunno. I know but I don't know.
Thank God I don't have kids who will be punished when I go.

It's morbid **** this. But it needs to be faced.
Wearing a mask for any longer is screwing up my productivity. Can't breathe with this **** on my face.

I.dont.know.

So I rip it off when I'm working. PCB.
Can't see WTF I'm doing.

Yeah. This whole Corona is a mess. I'm sad and pissed off with it.

The UNFORGIVABLE IS THE ANC LOOKING TO TAKE POLITICAL ADVANTAGE OF THIS.

I really hope all the scheming, conniving ****ers die.

South Africa is but a shell of what it used to be before the ANC took over.
We were a THRIVING FARMING country. We produced more than we could consume.

Now we import stuff.

Farmer's were either killed or just gave up. That's the Black Liberation way.

It's been a moerse success everywhere it's been practised. Notably every country in Africa. Yeah.

It always ends the same.

But some don't see it. Some defend the ANC. Blindly. Just defend it.
I guess that's their choice.

That's their right. So they practice it.

Real people however, try to warn. I'm 57 and still learning. And warning.

Champ, the ANC doesn't give a flying **** for you. No matter how much you love or defend them here.

Your ANC has bigger plans. You're gonna be brushed aside when you need them most.

Sad. But they gonna shaft you.

Test it. And see if I'm wrong.

Get a grip.