South African Covid-19 News and Discussions 2

[Azg]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1269998529126285312

I thought Panda and their report is DA motivated. . This confirms it. Doubt the ANC will care what they have to say.

I see both the DA and MyBB have accepted PANDA as the gospel truth. A large number of MyBB articles quote PANDA.

I also get the sense that this is being peddled as the position of most South African actuaries, which is a lie.

The Actuarial Society of South Africa (ASSA) has said the PANDA paper is the work of a few individuals, has not been peer reviewed, but is welcome as it stimulates debate. It is dangerous to put so much blind faith in something that has not been peer reviewed, even if it aligns with your own opinion.The ASSA models (best to check their website) are different from those of PANDA.

 

[fabios1101]

We have about 57 million people in SA. In the last 3 to 4 months, how many people have been tested compared to other small or bigger countries?? We have tested about 900 000 people to date!!! Something is wrong!!!

 

[RedViking]

I see both the DA and MyBB have accepted PANDA as the gospel truth. A large number of MyBB articles quote PANDA.

I also get the sense that this is being peddled as the position of most South African actuaries, which is a lie.

The The Actuarial Society of South Africa (ASSA) has said the PANDA paper is the work of a few individuals, has not been peer reviewed, but is welcome as it stimulates debate. It is dangerous to put so much blind faith in something that has not been peer reviewed, even if it aligns with your own opinion.The ASSA models (best to check their website) are different from those of PANDA.

Sounds about right.

 

[RedViking]

We have about 57 million people in SA. In the last 3 to 4 months, how many people have been tested compared to other small or bigger countries?? We have tested about 900 000 people to date!!! Something is wrong!!!

You only notice it now?

 

[pinball wizard]

I get your point. However the closeness at shops is just as bad given how very infectious this virus is. Some think that most people already have it as well, so easy to test positive for it.
It's too convenient that only funerals have largely caused the press noise. Let's also not forget many reports of social parties of various sorts going on. Even 2 of my neighbours are regularly festive.

That's debatable.

 

[R13...]

You only notice it now?

We have about 57 million people in SA. In the last 3 to 4 months, how many people have been tested compared to other small or bigger countries?? We have tested about 900 000 people to date!!! Something is wrong!!!

South Africa is 89th out of 215 in terms of test done per mil of population. Not great but not as bad as ol' fabios believes.

 

[pinball wizard]

We have about 57 million people in SA. In the last 3 to 4 months, how many people have been tested compared to other small or bigger countries?? We have tested about 900 000 people to date!!! Something is wrong!!!

SA is actually getting close to the test/million of France.

But never mind that.

What are you actually trying to say in amongst all the punctuation? That initially there was a massive shortage of tests, and the entire African continent basically relied on the kindness of strangers to get donations of test kits? That magically, test kits don't materialise from thin air?

 

[HunterNW]

Shocking and sad all the businesses closing.

 

[Supervan II]

People in EC and GP get ready to batten down the hatches! You're following our trajectory in the WC!

Wait! What???? ... NEVER!!!

YOLO

WATCH | East Cape premier wants alcohol ban to be reimposed as street bash video goes viral

 

[Geoff.D]

We have about 57 million people in SA. In the last 3 to 4 months, how many people have been tested compared to other small or bigger countries?? We have tested about 900 000 people to date!!! Something is wrong!!!

Yes the govt messed up.
But in their defence, there is a global shortage of test kits available, preventing mass testing everywhere.

 

[Geoff.D]

Sounds about right.

Sounds perfectly correct. You have to have a logical brain to be able to be smart about Covid 19.

 

[RedViking]

South Africa is 89th out of 215 in terms of test done per mil of population. Not great but not as bad as ol' fabios believes.

Couldn't really care. We do everything so great.

 

[RedViking]

Sounds perfectly correct. You have to have a logical brain to be able to be smart about Covid 19.

What I would like to see is the reports the government base their decisions on.

 

[Gordon_R]

So, IF you accept this now, why are you so critical when other models show up? You can't agree and accept this article without acknowledging that other models are equally valid and are not worthless.

I think you are misquoting me. The Panda hypothesis and model does raise intersting questions. However, sometimes the 'agenda' of the model author gets in the way, and in many cases the interpretation of the model by third parties (journalists, politicians and MyBB members) distorts the issue further.

 

[Brian_G]

Qn: Without natural immunity or a vaccine almost everyone may be at risk. In terms of weekly trends and testing, what has SA picked up?
1. Massive difference between SA and most other countries especially the BRICS countries.
2. Most countries in the first 90 days had exponentially growing cases and large numbers of deaths.
3. SA has managed to keep a lid on the overall epidemic.
4. It is growing but at a much lesser rate than elsewhere.

5. SA has a lower death rate as well.
6. The health system so far has coped by and large.
7. We have flattened the curve successfully so far.
8. We will not see as many deaths as seen in other countries.

My concerns in blue.

As a layman I've observed little difference in the mortality rate for months, from before the LD until recently. Excluding the sudden WC change of course.
So it would be interesting to know why the prof. thinks the LD worked, at least enough. Interesting as I otherwise have much faith in him.

 

[MiW]

INFOGRAPHICS | Covid-19: Diabetes, hypertension and HIV - what Western Cape's deaths data shows | News24

Data compiled by the Western Cape government on Covid-19 deaths has broken down which comorbidities were most prevalent by age - such as diabetes - and has also given more insight into HIV and TB.

www.news24.com

 

[Geoff.D]

I think you are misquoting me. The Panda hypothesis and model does raise intersting questions. However, sometimes the 'agenda' of the model author gets in the way, and in many cases the interpretation of the model by third parties (journalists, politicians and MyBB members) distorts the issue further.

The ASSA model is also different from the official Consortium Model and is also more realistic.

 

[Geoff.D]

My concerns in blue.

As a layman I've observed little difference in the mortality rate for months, from before the LD until recently. Excluding the sudden WC change of course.
So it would be interesting to know why the prof. thinks the LD worked, at least enough. Interesting as I otherwise have much faith in him.

Almost verbatim summary, but with some summarizing on my part.

 

[Brian_G]

everyone back here tomorrow night?

@daelm , looks like I won't be now, so will just add an end to my argument for possible conspiracy.

It can only really be considered so if there's evidence for some sort of rough plan or agenda.
Some examples in this event;
We have the WHO regularly spinning BS despite being shown up as doing so (yes, I know you consider them a scapegoat, but then who's scapegoat?)
We have the "unpopular" press clearly scaremongering and sewing confusion, often after some good news, their owners have an agenda.
We have proven political lies in many places re the stats. Why?
I'll end off with my known favourite, the mortality rate, worldwide - why such a big fuss for bad sniffles, endlessly reignited, and done so almost everywhere.

^ Hope you'll see this. Anyway, have now at least convinced myself it must be happening
(Not that it's really a laughing matter.)

 

[Brian_G]

I'll end off with my known favourite, the mortality rate, worldwide - why such a big fuss for bad sniffles, endlessly reignited, and done so almost everywhere.

BTW, why would we need a vaccine for that? Still considered serious enough by the powers that be after many months of it being shown it isn't.
No thanks, won't trust it. Unless it threatens my ability to have my freedoms enough...

/done