South African Covid-19 News and Discussions 2

[Brian_G]

I wouldn't rubish that out of hand. Although this is the first time if heard it, it makes sense in general coronavirus lifespans that it mutates to a less deadly version.

Fair comment. Except then why the jump in WC? (And then again, it's still a tiny jump compared to worldwide figures.)

 

[Geoff.D]

The only explanation that fits as far as I am concerned is that (as has now been shown to be true in the UK), WC saw many infections that came from all over the Wolrd ( UK and EU mainly), from as early as November last year. throughout the summer holiday tourist season.

Then cam the official reports, the closing of international travel, and the testing associated with that. Those infections were found shut down and controlled. Meanwhile, in the background, the real killer cells were working away.

Unfortunately, there was no monitoring going on then and no data collection in place. People were not necessarily getting very sick. If there were deaths, they probably disappeared into the normal death figures.

This is quite an interesting report to look at, but it only starts in March 2020.

https://www.nicd.ac.za/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/The-Initial-and-Daily-COVID-19-Effective-Reproductive-Number-R-in-South-Africa-002.pdf

The same plot for GP. The scale is different and the pattern of the spread is completely different for GP

 

[Gordon_R]

The only explanation that fits as far as I am concerned is that (as has now been shown to be true in the UK), WC saw many infections that came from all over the Wolrd ( UK and EU mainly), from as early as November last year. throughout the summer holiday tourist season.

Then cam the official reports, the closing of international travel, and the testing associated with that. Those infections were found shut down and controlled. Meanwhile, in the background, the real killer cells were working away.

Unfortunately, there was no monitoring going on then and no data collection in place. People were not necessarily getting very sick. If there were deaths, they probably disappeared into the normal death figures.

This is quite an interesting report to look at, but it only starts in March 2020.

https://www.nicd.ac.za/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/The-Initial-and-Daily-COVID-19-Effective-Reproductive-Number-R-in-South-Africa-002.pdf

View attachment 858617

The same plot for GP. The scale is different and the pattern of the spread is completely different for GP

View attachment 858619

Please read this article. There were minimal cases in Europe before March, so we could not have imported any from there. Don't make up stuff to fit your preconceptions:

Coronavirus came to UK 'on at least 1,300 separate occasions'

There was no one 'patient zero' that started the UK epidemic, research shows.

www.bbc.com

The study estimates 80% of those initial cases arrived in the country between 28 Feb and 29 March - the time the UK was debating whether to lockdown.

Source: https://virological.org/t/prelimina...establishment-of-uk-transmission-lineages/507

 

[Polymathic]

The other day I was at the doctors surgery which is next to a takeaway, a group of black guys bought what I assume was a Kota they placed it on the roof of their vehicle and all ate from it at the same time and shared a 2L bottle of some off brand cool drink drinking from the same straw.

Made me think about just how ridiculous and pointless NDZs zol argument actual is

 

[Lupus]

The other day I was at the doctors surgery which is next to a takeaway, a group of black guys bought what I assume was a Kota they placed it on the roof of their vehicle and all ate from it at the same time and shared a 2L bottle of some off brand cool drink drinking from the same straw.

Made me think about just how ridiculous and pointless NDZs zol argument actual is

Yup so now you need to ban food.

 

[Brian_G]

What of international businessmen arriving here in Gauteng (in particular as I think they would be more in number, but there's of course other visitors as well), I would think a much higher number than in CT. Joburg Internat. is normally a very, very busy airport by our standards.

Then there's the honesty factor I just posted about in the other internat. thread. I think we keep trying to apply science to something sadly very distorted.

 

[Lupus]

What of international businessmen arriving here in Gauteng (in particular as I think they would be more in number, but there's of course other visitors as well), I would think a much higher number than in CT. Joburg Internat. is normally a very, very busy airport by our standards.

Then there's the honesty factor I just posted about in the other internat. thread. I think we keep trying to apply science to something sadly very distorted.

Don't forget the first case was in Gauteng, the first one we know of.

 

[Brian_G]

Please read this article. There were minimal cases in Europe before March, so we could not have imported any from there. Don't make up stuff to fit your preconceptions:

Exact geographical source details aside, there were international-arrival caused cases here that started at that initial time period (Feb/Mar).

 

[Geoff.D]

No one was monitoring the virus before about Late January/February 2020 anywhere except China, and we do not know when they started monitoring it. We just don't know.

I know there is no info to base my opinion on. Hence why it is my opinion. Take it, leave it, just as you like.

All we have is the official data sources in the country, that show the first cases were detected in GP and KZN ( late January). Yet the virus did not take hold in both those provinces in a similar way to CT where the first case detected was mid-February.

Who know how long it was around before it was detected?

Finding information on research done in this area is a daunting task. I have found one paper that makes for very disturbing reading - the stuff of nightmares.

Detecting the emergence of novel, zoonotic viruses pathogenic to humans - Cellular and Molecular Life Sciences

RNA viruses, with their high potential for mutation and epidemic spread, are the most common class of pathogens found as new causes of human illness. Despite great advances made in diagnostic technology since the 1950s, the annual rate at which novel virulent viruses have been found has remained...

link.springer.com

RNA viruses, with their high potential for mutation and epidemic spread, are the most common class of pathogens found as new causes of human illness. Despite great advances made in diagnostic technology since the 1950s, the annual rate at which novel virulent viruses have been found has remained at 2–3. Most emerging viruses are zoonoses; they have jumped from mammal or bird hosts to humans. An analysis of virus discovery indicates that the small number of novel viruses discovered annually is an artifact of inadequate surveillance in tropical and subtropical countries, where even established endemic pathogens are often misdiagnosed. Many of the emerging viruses of the future are already infecting humans but remain to be uncovered by a strategy of disease surveillance in selected populations.

 

[MiW]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1270624364082405377

 

[pinball wizard]

Please read this article. There were minimal cases in Europe before March, so we could not have imported any from there. Don't make up stuff to fit your

Your article doesn't say that.

 

[Geoff.D]

UK cases:
They found the UK's coronavirus epidemic did not have one origin - but at least 1,356 origins. On each of those occasions, somebody brought the infection into the UK from abroad and the virus began to spread as a result.




Interesting that the dates given here are after the virus arrived on our shores? something to do with it being Winter in the UK? Virus arriving via UK travellers returning home?

 

[BeerIsNotGood...]

Eastern Cape government, public hospitals, "just a job" attitude, unions, infectious disease.... What could possibly go wrong???

State hospitals

 

[MiW]

Orange Farm protesters torch water tanks meant for Covid-19 relief

The Department of Water and Sanitation provided the tanks to ensure that water-stressed communities have access to clean water supply to fight the spread of Covid-19.

www.iol.co.za

 

[ToxicBunny]

Orange Farm protesters torch water tanks meant for Covid-19 relief

The Department of Water and Sanitation provided the tanks to ensure that water-stressed communities have access to clean water supply to fight the spread of Covid-19.

www.iol.co.za

That is some absolutely winner logic there from the Orange Farm twats....

 

[MiW]

GP joining the big league , 750? new cases

 

[Lupus]

GP joining the big league , 750? new cases
View attachment 858833

750 from when? Where what time?

 

[The_Right_Honourable_Brit]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1271013904945229825

 

[MiW]

750 from when? Where what time?

since yesterday, and one can guess that when it gets to this numbers , and with the backlogs its at least x10

 

[theratman]

So today I wasn't able to get smokes from my usual place. So I popped down to the taxi rank in another area, its raining and it was business as usual, except now everyone is all bundled together out of the rain. Literally huddling, as one usually would under a shelter from the rain. A wet winter in the Cape is going to a big factor in spreading the virus imo, based on what I saw today.

Yes I got smokes, probably got covid too