South African Covid-19 News and Discussions 2

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Defiler

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This is South Africa, we'll be ready by 2035, after years of corruption and infighting. By the time they're ready they'll have forgotten what they were getting ready for
This is true on so many levels, the world would've moved on and we will be on lockdown level 1

I'm still waiting for the road upgrades and BRT bus lane for my area that was promised to be completed for the 2010 Fifa World Cup...
 

Lupus

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I'm still waiting for the road upgrades and BRT bus lane for my area that was promised to be completed for the 2010 Fifa World Cup...
I'm still waiting for the primary school that the land was cleared for in 2014.
 

Lupus

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SNLV30

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Lupus

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Gandalf the Gray

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SNLV30

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Meanwhile....


This means nothing without funcioning hospitals..wonder how much this cost
 

Grant

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Meanwhile....


This means nothing without funcioning hospitals..wonder how much this cost
So - a motorbike with a sidecar.
Health minister should have taken a ride over rough terrain on that thing - not on a perfectly tarred road.

Those things will split into 2 pieces real quick over rough terrain.
 

Paulsie

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Based on current numbers, it looks like we will have surpassed Chinese "official" numbers before next weekend.
 

MiW

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Until now, the Covid-19 strategy – defended by Health Minister Zweli Mkhize in an interview on Friday - involves testing patients referred from a mass screening programme, which has seen more than 180 000 people referred for Covid-19 tests so far. According to Mkhize, this has enabled the department to identify hotspots which would now be targeted with more resources, including priority testing.

But Venter and others have for weeks argued that, due to severe resource constraints, leading to low turnaround times from sample collection to results, tests should be reserved for hospitalised patients and healthcare workers.

According to the National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD), the average turnaround time for tests is now around nine days, up from two days in April.
Mkhize said the department was looking into how long samples could last in storage. But the question from scientists has not been whether the samples can last in storage; rather, it has been whether samples older than 48 hours are useful to the Covid-19 response at all.
 

Lupus

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Gordon_R

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That is a very interesting table, but for all the wrong reasons. A competent statistician would rip it to shreads! IMO it emphasises that case figures are completely misleading, due to the faulty testing protocols, and biases in sample selection.

There are several 'giveaways' that clearly demonstrate the sample biases:
1. The clearest is number of cases per 100k population. It is obvious that these numbers are biased towards those most seriously infected, with a large number of asymptomatic or mild cases completely excluded from the data.
2. There is no plausible mechanism whereby the case rate would vary arbitrarily across age demographics, with an obvious bias towards those most seriously ill (similar to #1).

Some useful information, and bonus points for effort, but zero points for epidemiological insights.

Edit: I missed the most blatant oversight: No column totals for any of the data!?
 
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Gordon_R

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9 days? How the hell do you spot hotspots with 9 day old results? By the time you've identified the hotspot it's moved on.

Many scientists have politely mentioned this, and I have bluntly stated that the whole hotspot strategy is complete BS anyway. Without a proper trace and test strategy, there is nothing worth doing for the general public, given the current limited resources. At this stage of the epidemic it is only worth testing outbreaks in hospitals and old-age homes.
 

Mila

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