South African Covid-19 News and Discussions 2

[The_Right_Honourable_Brit]

Tsogo Sun to take over Mount Grace, Edward and Hazyview Protea hotels

Tsogo Sun Hotels has announced it is to take over the Mount Grace in Magaliesburg, the iconic Edward in Durban and the Protea Hotel Hazyview in Mpumalanga.

www.sowetanlive.co.za

Good news!

 

[nivek]

Good news!

Yeah very good, we had a company function at the Mount Grace a few years ago and the place was a bit run down. Tsogo standards are much higher.

 

[The_Right_Honourable_Brit]

Fastest growing districts:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1274796717758730240

 

[Lupus]

View attachment 863565

Fastest growing districts:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1274796717758730240

Guy is aware that testing is selective in the WC? Hence why it seems to be slowing?

 

[Geoff.D]

This is why drawing any conclusions about the virus progress from the data available is such a complete waste of time.
the ONLY thing that will stop the rate is when the virus can't find anyone to infect anymore.
And there are only two ways that happens.
When the population reaches herd immunity or a vaccine is found to hasten that process on.
In the meantime, all us as individuals can do is to try and reduce our exposure while we wait for the vaccine. Ultimately, the only way out is to get the damn thing. And hope like hell that you will be able to get treatment if you get it bad.

 

[NarrowBandFtw]

Guy is aware that testing is selective in the WC? Hence why it seems to be slowing?

testing is "selective" in all provinces, it's not like any province has the capacity or has even attempted to do mass testing of people showing no symptoms and with no contact with confirmed cases

what it looks like is...

not that long ago:
WC did aggressive contact tracing and aggressive testing of those contacts, regardless of symptom severity
GP did sub-par contact tracing and un-targeted testing, albeit in larger numbers
unsurprisingly, WC took the lead despite it being irrational for it to be in the lead over GP

now:
WC does the same as before, but without testing people with mild / no symptoms
GP seems to be doing better contact tracing than before
unsurprisingly, GP took the lead, like it always probably had in reality

The numbers should have been taken with lots of salt before, and it should also be taken with salt now, so not much has changed apart from the most densely populated province being in the lead which makes logical sense.

 

[Lupus]

testing is "selective" in all provinces, it's not like any province has the capacity or has even attempted to do mass testing of people showing no symptoms and with no contact with confirmed cases

what it looks like is...

not that long ago:
WC did aggressive contact tracing and aggressive testing of those contacts, regardless of symptom severity
GP did sub-par contact tracing and un-targeted testing, albeit in larger numbers
unsurprisingly, WC took the lead despite it being irrational for it to be in the lead over GP

now:
WC does the same as before, but without testing people with mild / no symptoms
GP seems to be doing better contact tracing than before
unsurprisingly, GP took the lead, like it always probably had in reality

The numbers should have been taken with lots of salt before, and it should also be taken with salt now, so not much has changed apart from the most densely populated province being in the lead which makes logical sense.

The point is, you cannot compare the numbers. It's all basically pie in the sky.

 

[NarrowBandFtw]

The point is, you cannot compare the numbers. It's all basically pie in the sky.

indeed, which is why many have started ignoring those numbers

I was actually surprised to see we hit the global top 20, I simply don't keep an eye on things anymore due to the numbers being of little use.

 

[Lupus]

indeed, which is why many have started ignoring those numbers

I was actually surprised to see we hit the global top 20, I simply don't keep an eye on things anymore due to the numbers being of little use.

Even hitting the top 20 means nothing, all the numbers don't mean anything really. What with rumours of deaths being fudged.

 

[Geoff.D]

All you have to do is check on the historical way in which flu takes hold every year in SA to understand how and where and when. Then factor in in the novel nature of this virus. Nothing then looks so strange or inexplicable.
in the end the only facts that matter are the mortality rate and the number of people still sick at any one time. The rest is just media especially social media fear mongering induced panic.

 

[Lupus]

All you have to do is check on the historical way in which flu takes hold every year in SA to understand how and where and when. Then factor in in the novel nature of this virus. Nothing then looks so strange or inexplicable.
in the end the only facts that matter are the mortality rate and the number of people still sick at any one time. The rest is just media especially social media fear mongering induced panic.

You can't even really look at historical flu info, as a lot of the time the flu isn't recorded as much as the "rona" is.

 

[The_Right_Honourable_Brit]

There's also the expected peak in the WC this week or next week. We would expect the rise in the number of cases in GP as it approaches its own peak (end of July or in August).

But probably the best metric to look at is hospital admissions, people in ICU etc. Only once that decreases over a period of time will I be satisfied that the WC has hit its peak.

 

[Lupus]

There's also the expected peak in the WC this week or next week.

But probably the best metric to look at is hospital admissions, people on ICU etc. Only once that decreases over a period of time will I be satisfied that the WC has hit its peak.

Or the week after, or tomorrow, or September or July or who knows.

 

[Gandalf the Gray]

OP-ED: Prosecutions and the rule of law are under pressure during Covid-19 pandemic

The risk to the rule of law is especially acute when state officials, politicians and those with commercial interests misuse the Covid-19 crisis for political or financial gain.

www.dailymaverick.co.za

The risk to the rule of law is especially acute when state officials, politicians and those with commercial interests misuse the Covid-19 crisis for political or financial gain.

 

[NarrowBandFtw]

OP-ED: Prosecutions and the rule of law are under pressure during Covid-19 pandemic

The risk to the rule of law is especially acute when state officials, politicians and those with commercial interests misuse the Covid-19 crisis for political or financial gain.

www.dailymaverick.co.za

prosecutors must vigorously pursue serious cases of corruption, especially involving state officials

errr ... coming from the NPA's head ... quite the irony, how many have been prosecuted by the NPA to date?

/tumbleweed

 

[Polymathic]

There's also the expected peak in the WC this week or next week. We would expect the rise in the number of cases in GP as it approaches its own peak (end of July or in August).

But probably the best metric to look at is hospital admissions, people in ICU etc. Only once that decreases over a period of time will I be satisfied that the WC has hit its peak.

I'm no expert but I don't see how the WC can reach their peak without a lockdown especially since it's still peak rainy season.

 

[The_Librarian]

really hope zumpie's appeal loses in court.

of course this pandemic will be abused by certain people in high positions so as to enrich/entrench/etc themselves at the cost of the rest of the population.

 

[Gandalf the Gray]

‘SA’s COVID-19 infections could exceed 570 000’ – UP researchers

‘SA’s COVID-19 infections could exceed 570 000’ – UP researchers | University of Pretoria

‘SA’s COVID-19 infections could exceed 570 000’ – UP researchers

www.up.ac.za

What was govt's first figures?

 

[The_Right_Honourable_Brit]

‘SA’s COVID-19 infections could exceed 570 000’ – UP researchers

‘SA’s COVID-19 infections could exceed 570 000’ – UP researchers | University of Pretoria

‘SA’s COVID-19 infections could exceed 570 000’ – UP researchers

www.up.ac.za

What was govt's first figures?

New projections see South African COVID cases climb

The number of coronavirus cases in South Africa continues to climb, with the Ministry of Health reporting 30 additional deaths on Thursday and a toll that has reached 369 victims.Among them is a 2-day...

africatimes.com

 

[Arzy]

‘SA’s COVID-19 infections could exceed 570 000’ – UP researchers

‘SA’s COVID-19 infections could exceed 570 000’ – UP researchers | University of Pretoria

‘SA’s COVID-19 infections could exceed 570 000’ – UP researchers

www.up.ac.za

What was govt's first figures?

I recall something about 12mil infections on the pesimistic view and 8mil on the optimistic. Just trying to find a more credible reference than this: https://theconversation.com/south-a...lling-has-been-deeply-flawed-heres-why-140002

Here's 13 mil infections: https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/art...sa-cases-could-total-three-million/#gsc.tab=0

A report from health modelling experts at the South African Covid-19 Modelling Consortium (SACMC), for instance, projects as many as 13 million South African coronavirus infections to have occurred by November – a figure which is more than twice as high as the current cumulative recorded coronavirus figures worldwide.