South African Covid-19 News and Discussions 2

[The_Right_Honourable_Brit]

Just did back-of-the-envelope calculations.

With the 400 000 cases by mid-July:

1) 400 000 - 106 000 (current number of cases) = 294 000 new cases (by mid July)
2) 21 days until July 15.
3) 294 000 / 21 = 14 000 cases per day for the next 21 days.

Verdict: BONKERS.

 

[sand_man]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1275432583367704576

'This is crazy - it's like a machine': nurses on the Covid-19 front line in the Western Cape

“This place steals from you. We are emotionally drained. I'm emotionally drained from yesterday and now I have to face today.”

www.timeslive.co.za

 

[Azg]

Just did back-of-the-envelope calculations.

With the 400 000 cases by mid-July:

1) 400 000 - 106 000 (current number of cases) = 294 000 new cases (by mid July)
2) 21 days until July 15.
3) 294 000 / 21 = 14 000 cases per day for the next 21 days.

Verdict: BONKERS.

New (restricted) testing criteria should result in fewer tests and fewer recorded cases. Western Cape has already confirmed this trend.

Of more concern will be the number of hospitalisations and deaths, hopefully that will be low.

 

[johnjm]

Just did back-of-the-envelope calculations.

With the 400 000 cases by mid-July:

1) 400 000 - 106 000 (current number of cases) = 294 000 new cases (by mid July)
2) 21 days until July 15.
3) 294 000 / 21 = 14 000 cases per day for the next 21 days.

Verdict: BONKERS.

It’s basic maths as to how they get to that, exponential growth., heard of it?

We have went from 50k to 100k cases in the last two weeks. So it indicates that it doubles every two weeks.

So 100k becomes 200k in two weeks
200k becomes 400k after another two weeks.


That’s the theory, but it’s doubtful that the testing capacity or contract tracing will be effective to show it.

 

[Temujin]

The charity hopes national government will now focus on helping to feed the poor, instead of making more rules.

Good luck with that, ndz and co are now going to target you specifically

Second victory for DA and soup kitchens against govt rules on distributing food | News24

The national government has, for a second time, been interdicted by the high court from implementing new regulations to control measures for the humanitarian distribution of food for the hungry.

www.news24.com

 

[Gordon_R]

Just did back-of-the-envelope calculations.

With the 400 000 cases by mid-July:

1) 400 000 - 106 000 (current number of cases) = 294 000 new cases (by mid July)
2) 21 days until July 15.
3) 294 000 / 21 = 14 000 cases per day for the next 21 days.

Verdict: BONKERS.

The article that you linked answers this exact question: those are 400,000 infections, not positive tests. The reason for the discrepancy is the limited testing resources, and the changing protocols to exclude random population sampling:

"The model projects that if testing patterns remain unchanged there may be more than 408 000 detected cases by mid-July. However, prioritisation of testing may result in a reduction in detected cases to approximately 133 000," the report, dated 12 June, reads.

There are 30 pages of detail in the original source, compared to the news version: https://www.nicd.ac.za/wp-content/u...port_ShortTermProjections_12062020_Final2.pdf

 

[The_Right_Honourable_Brit]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1275700771544354817

 

[The_Right_Honourable_Brit]

The article that you linked answers this exact question: those are 400,000 infections, not positive tests. The reason for the discrepancy is the limited testing resources, and the changing protocols to exclude random population sampling:


There are 30 pages of detail in the original source, compared to the news version: https://www.nicd.ac.za/wp-content/u...port_ShortTermProjections_12062020_Final2.pdf

Sorry but the quote says 408 000 detected cases --- how else would you detect the cases without testing?

 

[Gordon_R]

Sorry but the quote says 408 000 detected cases --- how else would you detect the cases without testing?

That statement is not clear IMO, but the rest of the sentence answers your question. Read the original source, and stop arguing about semantics.

 

[Sinbad]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1275700771544354817

 

[jackshiels]

Just did back-of-the-envelope calculations.

With the 400 000 cases by mid-July:

1) 400 000 - 106 000 (current number of cases) = 294 000 new cases (by mid July)
2) 21 days until July 15.
3) 294 000 / 21 = 14 000 cases per day for the next 21 days.

Verdict: BONKERS.

Apply this with a nonlinear growth model and it makes more sense.

 

[pouroverguy]

Coronavirus Eastern Cape: Nelson Mandela Bay state maternity services near collapse as workers stay away

Maternity services were kept from collapsing by six doctors at Dora Nginza Hospital on Wednesday as nurses and general assistants refused to work in areas where Covid-19 patients or infected health workers had been. As workers stayed away, doctors were washing floors, patients were giving birth...

www.dailymaverick.co.za

 

[pouroverguy]

Coronavirus Eastern Cape: Nelson Mandela Bay state maternity services near collapse as workers stay away

Maternity services were kept from collapsing by six doctors at Dora Nginza Hospital on Wednesday as nurses and general assistants refused to work in areas where Covid-19 patients or infected health workers had been. As workers stayed away, doctors were washing floors, patients were giving birth...

www.dailymaverick.co.za

Our government is failing our Healthcare workers.

 

[johnjm]

Our government is failing our Healthcare workers.

What about the people? This is nothing new actually, the healthcare system has been in a state of disrepair for a very long time, and now that it needs to deal with a pandemic the chickens come home to roost.

 

[Paulsie]

Our government is failing our Healthcare workers.

It is a terrible, yet common state of affairs. Government, health and labour officials make every private company comply with regulations while threatening to shut them down if they do not comply.

Meanwhile in their own sandpit, the situation is completely different.

Always find it interesting thought that it is not the doctors that do not perform. It is the nurses, general staff, the cleaners etc. It's because they don't have to.

Our agreement said we do not have to work in those areas until the area has been deep cleaned and sanitised,” he said.

Who is actually expected to clean and sanitize the covid areas, if not the cleaners that do not have to work until those areas are clean and sanitized? Thank you government, thank you unions.

 

[Sinbad]

Our government is failing our Healthcare workers.

Fixed

 

[Polymathic]

I also posted this in the international thread. The useless NCCC more worried about their useless lockdown rules than stopping the spread of the virus.

 

[now05ster]

Our government is failing our Healthcare workers.

Eastern Cape Department of Health spokesperson Sizwe Kupelo could not provide answers on any planned interventions to stabilise services at the hospital, but said the National Department of Health was in the process of formulating a policy that would deal with the deep cleaning issue.

Oh man, they have a lot of jokes. That was quite funny.

When the hell is Zweli Mkhize firing Sindiswa Gomba? She is fed up after all so maybe employ someone else?

 

[MiW]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1275896083969986562

 

[chrisc]

Western Cape statistics indicate a steady decline in reported cases, as other provinces show increases, especially Eastern Cape

Keep the borders closed, Mr Winde! No 10 bus-loads of Eastern Cape people a day arriving in Cape Town thank you