South African Covid-19 News and Discussions 2

[FNfal]

So what do you do if you think you have covid? I heard they aren't testing people under 55 anymore.

I started feeling a bit iffy 2 days ago. Today I started feeling worse. Blocked nose, sore throat and some chest pain and feeling bleh. Could be anything tho?
Thing is I work in a mall. Could have picked it up anywhere.

Feed your immune system , vitamin D , A, E , ETC. and self isolate .

 

[Gordon_R]

But the case fatality rate has dropped

The case fatality rate is a moving target, and depends on several factors, though mostly to do with counting and sample bias, and not the underlying illness and treatment, which have barely changed since the epidemic began.

The rate will go up again towards the peak, when only the sickest patients are admitted to hospital and are tested. Currently those under age 55 are not routinely tested in the W-Cape, which skews the case numbers.

In countries which have passed the peak, the rate is falling because of several factors pushing in the other direction. IMO its a very broad and imprecise measure.

 

[ToxicBunny]

Is there still the major backlog like before?

Yes... And there pretty much always will be

 

[Lupus]

The case fatality rate is a moving target, and depends on several factors, though mostly to do with counting and sample bias, and not the underlying illness and treatment, which have barely changed since the epidemic began.

The rate will go up again towards the peak, when only the sickest patients are admitted to hospital and are tested. Currently those under age 55 are not routinely tested in the W-Cape, which skews the case numbers.

In countries which have passed the peak, the rate is falling because of several factors pushing in the other direction. IMO its a very broad and imprecise measure.

Thank you that's always been my argument on the CFR, than you've got the moronic ministers calling it the mortality rate sigh

 

[chrisc]

Neighbour's daughter lives in Oceanside/Carlsbad, small towns just north of San Diego in California

Yesterday morning their county manager announced a lockdown again. Their local hospital received 165 new covid-19 cases on Thursday and Friday. The previous week there were 3 or 4 a day, but since Monday it trebled every day

The county manager called the Federal Response Team. They are overwhelmed, they say

 

[Lupus]

Neighbour's daughter lives in Oceanside/Carlsbad, small towns just north of San Diego in California

Yesterday morning their county manager announced a lockdown again. Their local hospital received 165 new cases on Thursday and Friday. The previous week there were 3 or 4 a day, but since Monday it trebled every day

The county manager called the Federal Response Team. They are overwhelmed, they say

Their lockdown is still nothing like our lockdown. Basically their lockdown has been our "level" 2.

 

[sand_man]

How would you tie the 7210 cases to those 36,000 tests?

Beyond that it's not kicking off any bigger today than it was a couple of months ago.

NO question the data is tainted/out dated but those are the only official numbers from which to draw any conclusion. If 20% is incorrect as the 36k tests were conducted on the 27th and those confirmed cases were from actual test results received on the 23rd, some the 24th, others the 25th, then so be it. Perhaps the confirmed cases were derived from 50k test results? Then it is no longer 20% but below 15%.

At some stage the numbers will balance themselves out IE if yesterday's confirmed cases is actually from 50k test results, then further down the road we will see a lower number of confirmed cases as that might make up the balance of test results from a certain period.

Maybe I'm not articulating well...

SO, to simplify (hypothetically speaking) - 1st 30k tests, 2nd 30k tests, 3rd 30k tests, 4th 30k tests total tests 120k tests... results dribble in and on the 3rd 2k confirmed positives from 10k test results, on the 4th 4k confirmed from 20k test results, on the 5th 10k confirmed cases from 50k test results!! On the 6th, 8k confirmed cases from 40k test results...

So in the above scenario, for the sake of simplification I'm assuming a constant 30k per day of testing was done IE patients swabbed, health department, would on each day state in the last 24 hours 30k tests were conducted, but confirmed cases would differ on the 3rd 2k confirmed, 4th 4k confirmed, 5th 10k confirmed, 6th 8k confirmed... etc etc etc based on actual test results...

In the above example I'm expecting an overall rate of positive returns of 20%. If in SA the actual rate is 13% - 15% (which it has been for the last week or so), then the number of confirmed cases would obviously decrease (from 24k to 15.6k/18k)

I don't understand your comment about it not being any bigger than months ago? Months ago less than 3% of tests results were coming back positive? Months ago we had maybe 1000 confirmed cases nation wide.

 

[The_Right_Honourable_Brit]

 

[Geoff.D]

View attachment 866573

Interesting. This is going to pop a few balloons amongst the idiots in the country.

 

[Paulsie]

View attachment 866597

How many ICU beds are there available again? Just trying to calcutale when they might potentially run out (assuming current 0.91% of active cases and the possibility of shifting patients around).

 

[Geoff.D]

Thank you that's always been my argument on the CFR, than you've got the moronic ministers calling it the mortality rate sigh

Even yesterday, in an interview with some or other CSIR guru, the terms IFR, CFR and MR were used interchangeably. Although IF you followed closely, you could see that the expert was using the terms correctly, the interviewer was not, and certainly, the majority of viewers would not pick up the subtle differences.

 

[R13...]

View attachment 866597

GP marching on and now with a lot more active cases than the WC. They'll surpass WC's cumulative cases in a short while.,

 

[MiW]

How many ICU beds are there available again? Just trying to calcutale when they might potentially run out (assuming current 0.91% of active cases and the possibility of shifting patients around).

All I could find

 

[Gordon_R]

GP marching on and now with a lot more active cases than the WC. They'll surpass WC's cumulative cases in a short while.,

As I just stated, case numbers are not particularly meaningful due to testing protocols. It would be helpful if they posted the reproduction rate R0 per province, though it is much harder to estimate.

BTW, what happened to all the numbers for district hot-spots and cases per 100K population? Or did they realise that was useless nonsense!?

 

[Alan]

Neighbour's daughter lives in Oceanside/Carlsbad, small towns just north of San Diego in California

Yesterday morning their county manager announced a lockdown again. Their local hospital received 165 new covid-19 cases on Thursday and Friday. The previous week there were 3 or 4 a day, but since Monday it trebled every day

The county manager called the Federal Response Team. They are overwhelmed, they say

People there been commuting to San Diego......

 

[Geoff.D]

As I just stated, case numbers are not particularly meaningful due to testing protocols. It would be helpful if they posted the reproduction rate R0 per province, though it is much harder to estimate.

BTW, what happened to all the numbers for district hot-spots and cases per 100K population? Or did they realise that was useless nonsense!?

This is the latest addition to the mediahack site.

Coronavirus in South Africa

The Coronavirus tracker visualises the most recent data on Covid 19 infections in South Africa.

mediahack.co.za

 

[sand_man]

So in other words this isn't a white man's virus like Twitter told us back in March.

Seems it's very much an unknown man's virus....

 

[Polymathic]

People there been commuting to San Diego......

It's those people in the shade you need to worry about

 

[sand_man]

But the case fatality rate has dropped

Got to look at the confirmed cases from the last 7 days. Must be close to 35k (over 25% of total cases to date)? Takes time for people to die/recover, which will affect that fatality rate...

 

[sand_man]

Is there still the major backlog like before?

I know of half a dozen people in the last week that have been tested and got their tests results back anywhere between 6 hours and 3 workng days... Private sector...