South African Covid-19 News and Discussions 2

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Gordon_R

Gordon_R

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Geoff.D said:
This is the latest addition to the mediahack site.

mediahack.co.za

Coronavirus in South Africa

The Coronavirus tracker visualises the most recent data on Covid 19 infections in South Africa.
mediahack.co.za
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Loads of useful charts, though only as good as the data going into them. The estimated Rt of 1.4 is tapering upwards, and though there is no provincial split, it is clear the numbers are rising everywhere. Not enough information to make definitive predictions about anything...
 
sand_man

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ToxicBunny said:
Private sector testing has always been relatively fast and efficient, public sector is an abortion though.
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Indeed.... as with all things public sector?

Of the 8 people tested (family and close family friends), 5 are positive, 1 is over 80, 1 is over 70, 2 between 40-50 and 1 between 30-40....

Over 80 has been hospitalized for almost a week now but in general ward, doing well and expecting to be discharged early next week. Their symptoms were low blood pressure, dehydration, shortness of breath, oxygen levels of around 80.

Over 70 is in isolation, asymptomatic and in an retirement home.

3 others are experiencing mild symptoms and are at home recovering/in isolation...
 
Geoff.D

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sand_man said:
Indeed.... as with all things public sector?

Of the 8 people tested (family and close family friends), 5 are positive, 1 is over 80, 1 is over 70, 2 between 40-50 and 1 between 30-40....

Over 80 has been hospitalized for almost a week now but in general ward, doing well and expecting to be discharged early next week. Their symptoms were low blood pressure, dehydration, shortness of breath, oxygen levels of around 80.

Over 70 is in isolation, asymptomatic and in an retirement home.

3 others are experiencing mild symptoms and are at home recovering/in isolation...
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Wishing them and you well.
And hope the person in the hospital gets out of there soon!
 
Rickster

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Should I get tested?

Woke up yesterday with a phlegmy throat, little bit of a raspy voice, blockedish nose, some head pressure.

No fever, cough or trouble breathing.
 
Paulsie

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Geoff.D said:
This is the latest addition to the mediahack site.

View attachment 866633

mediahack.co.za

Coronavirus in South Africa

The Coronavirus tracker visualises the most recent data on Covid 19 infections in South Africa.
mediahack.co.za
Click to expand...
These two graphs are tho most worrying. While "flattening the curve" by imposing lockdown when there were too few cases around, SA is now shooting through the stars as all the arsenal to fight has been used up.
 

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Gordon_R

Gordon_R

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Pablo37 said:
Looks like there is only one American state with an estimated Rt value above 1.4, at this stage.
https://rt.live/
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Very interesting chart! Conversely, there are only 3 states where Rt is below 0.8. With Rt so close to 1.0, it means that the rate of decline is slow, and the epidemic still has a very long way to go!?

Only areas with Rt below 0.4 to 0.6 have effectively contained the epidemic, and can expect a sharp drop in cases.

The FAQs from that site are worth reading: https://rt.live/faq
Q: If one state has a higher Rt than another state, does that mean the situation is worse in the former vs. the latter?

A: Not necessarily. To assess the situation, you should take into account both Rt and the absolute number of cases. A state with 1000 new cases a day and Rt = 1.0 is likely in worse shape than a state with 10 new cases per day and Rt = 1.1. The worse-case scenario is Rt >> 1 and many new cases per day.

Q: My state has so few cases, why is Rt so bad?

A: Even if there is only one person sick and that one person infects six people, Rt will be 6.0. So to evaluate how bad a situation is for a given state, you need to understand both Rt, but also the absolute number of cases. A high Rt is manageable in the very short run as long as there are not many people sick to begin with. Smaller states like Vermont or Alaska often see this issue.
Click to expand...
 
Geoff.D

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Chris_the_Brit said:
Indeed. What the government doesn't want you to know is during the most stringent lockdown period (March /April), there was a clear lack of testing making it appear the lockdown flattened the curve.
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So this is part of the stupidity going around about "testing" and the "data" and the hype.

1. The virus does not care whether "we" are testing or not --- it will carry on "infecting" so long as there are enough people around to be infected by infectious people.
2. Any measure that inhibits this process will have an effect, and that effect is to delay the progress towards "herd immunity". It is very doubtful that it will ever "flatten the curve" IF the meaning of this terrible term is supposed to be; the reduction the number of people who get the bug.
3. The "only" way that fewer people will get the bug is IF those that are "infectious" are kept away from the those that can be "infected" until the "infectious" are no longer able to pass it on. And that is only possible with very strict and total LD strategies as having been applied in some countries and environments/areas.
4. All measures taken will only work IF the population co-operates. If the co-operation breaks down for any reason, the measures fail to a lesser or larger degree. And this "failure" is not a sufficiently good reason to criticise.
5. The valid criticism of our govt, is that they managed to lose the co-operation of the population very very quickly when they started to impose stupid regulations.
6. And then the govt's total failure in recognising the futility of some of their measures introduced because the measures did not take into account the environmental conditions in SA.
7. Then the govts blind and completely dumb belief in the rubbish being propagated by the WHO.
 
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