South African Covid-19 News and Discussions 2

[tetrasect]

R0 IS a static figure calculated at the START of an infectious event!.
Rt however is not static and changes as the infection event progresses.

And your insert shows just how unpredictable the values are BECAUSE of the reliance in the input data available and coming out of the data as reported. Yesterday, the figures for WC were NOT as reflected above

R0 is not static. We've been through this.

R0 is not a biological constant for a pathogen, a rate over time, or a measure of disease severity, and R0 cannot be modified through vaccination campaigns.

Complexity of the Basic Reproduction Number (R0)

The basic reproduction number (R[0] ), also called the basic reproduction ratio or rate or the basic reproductive rate, is an epidemiologic metric used to describe the contagiousness or transmissibility of infectious agents. R[0] is affected by numerous ...

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

 

[TheChamp]

Speedy recovery to Mbali.

 

[tetrasect]

Nope. Rt is the real-time R0. R0 does not refer to the start of the event. The 0 in R denotes that it is the basic reproduction number, not time 0.

Yup, Rt is R0 multiplied by the number of susceptible people. So if 30% of people have already had the virus you would multiply your R0 by 0.7 (according to wikipedia).

 

[daveza]

https://www.iol.co.za/news/south-af...ly-samrc-c59ad1ca-a9bf-403d-a18f-9255d79ea46c

Natural deaths jumped by 59% in mid-July - SAMRC

 

[MiW]

https://www.iol.co.za/news/south-af...ly-samrc-c59ad1ca-a9bf-403d-a18f-9255d79ea46c

SAMRC explained it as:

i. People dying from Covid-19 before they get to the health care facility. This may be due to lack of transport, delays in transport and/or hospitals being unable to receive them.

Does that mean that we only count hospital deaths?

 

[Geoff.D]

R0 is not static. We've been through this.

Complexity of the Basic Reproduction Number (R0)

The basic reproduction number (R[0] ), also called the basic reproduction ratio or rate or the basic reproductive rate, is an epidemiologic metric used to describe the contagiousness or transmissibility of infectious agents. R[0] is affected by numerous ...

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

BOth of you need to go and READ and READ properly the definition of this parameter, because clearly you both live in a world of confusion!

Go and read this document and then come back and talk more crap about what R, Rt and R0 means.

Note that R0 = which is called the basic reproduction number and tells us how many persons an infected person will infect during their infectious period at the start of an epidemic and before any interventions can be mounted.

See this decent explanation now available on the mediahack site as of today also.

 

[pouroverguy]

View this content on Instagram

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[The_Right_Honourable_Brit]

Fiance's hospital just ran out of high-care and ICU beds.

#justtheflubro

EDIT: and no it's not some shitty government hospital

Gauteng? Not WC I hope as public communication suggests we have many beds spare and peak use of beds etc. was 21 June.

 

[Splinter]

Take a breath. I am sorry you know someone who passed away, that is never an easy situation and I understand that this hits closer to home than those of us, who haven't experienced this. Nobody here is taking the piss about anyone's death. But you can't come in hot and expect a constructive discussion, by projecting your own emotions in a hostile way.

Pinball Wiz, like the majority of us, are just frustrated with the inconsistencies from our "leadership". Whether it's a pandemic or epidemic, major or minor, the people are gatvol of being treated like **** and lied to.

PS Leonard Cohen is not a conspiracy theorist... a term coined by the CIA anyway. That's just a strawman argument. You came in here to fight, not discuss

Actually not. I pointed out one person who called an epidemic a pandemic, and called it minor as well (when the entire world has been crippled by it).

Said person having previously posted that he and his wife dare not venture around because they are high risk, iirc. Bit of a double standard neh.

And then Pin jumped in and we are merely debating, neh. Usually what these forums are about.

And you are conflating two issues - one the real impact of COVID, and then our stupid governments actions over it. I was referring to the former, and nothing about the latter. Maybe get your facts straight before trying to set me straight .

PS - actually had a chat with an old friend after my previous posts. Found out her SO's mother passed away 3 weeks ago from COVID. It's minor - no impact on him or his daughter.

 

[Splinter]

What?

And when did I say you could?

Your argument makes no sense.

The point, which I thought was straight forward, is that even though COVID may have no real impact on the majority who get it, it is highly infectious and those who feel "nothing" can still infect others, leading to their deaths. Thus the preventative measures for COVID (and impacts thereof), are entirely different to your glib comparison to heart attacks etc.

 

[tetrasect]

BOth of you need to go and READ and READ properly the definition of this parameter, because clearly you both live in a world of confusion!

Go and read this document and then come back and talk more crap about what R, Rt and R0 means.



See this decent explanation now available on the mediahack site as of today also.

Who cares what mediahack says?
Are you suggesting they are a better source of information than the scientific journal "Emerging Infectious Diseases" which is published by the CDC?

Again, here is the peer reviewed article: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6302597/

R0 is affected by numerous biological, sociobehavioral, and environmental factors that govern pathogen transmission.

R0 will fluctuate if the rate of human–human or human–vector interactions varies over time or space.

 

[Splinter]

Oh, right, so it's ridiculous that people raided the covid emergency funds for personal gain? The media is replete with evidence of anc cadres enriching themselves via theft of resources in feeding schemes, provision of ppe to schools, corruption of the emergency uif scheme, etc.

It's not a conspiracy theory when the factual evidence is there.

You are confusing two different issues. Corruption and the poor handling from our government is separate from whether this is a significant pandemic or not.

 

[neoprema]

Given Dlamini-'I don't know what i'm doing except making myself money'-Zuma's comments recently. I'm getting concerned we're not far off from Govt declaring this state of emergency as ongoing for years - even with a vaccine - so that they can implement their own plans and theft with no challenges.

What protection does the country have against this?

 

[ScottulusMaximus]

Gauteng?

Yeah

 

[nivek]

What protection does the country have against this?

COVID19

 

[Polymathic]

You would be wrong, influenza has an R0 that is roughly inline with COVID-19

Nope, R0 for Covid-19 is 3. I've seen several source's site that number during the early stages of the pandemic. (I should point out that value is based on no social distancing, hand washing and other mitigation factors )

 

[IceyQ]

Mkay

 

[ToxicBunny]

Nope, R0 for Covid-19 is 3. I've seen several source's site that number during the early stages of the pandemic. (I should point out that value is based on no social distancing, hand washing and other mitigation factors )

I've seen numbers ranging from 1.5 to 17 or something ridiculous...

The average range seems to be around 2 - 3 as an R0, and yes this is based on zero social distancing or anything of the sort.

 

[IceyQ]

Actually not. I pointed out one person who called an epidemic a pandemic, and called it minor as well (when the entire world has been crippled by it).

Said person having previously posted that he and his wife dare not venture around because they are high risk, iirc. Bit of a double standard neh.

And then Pin jumped in and we are merely debating, neh. Usually what these forums are about.

And you are conflating two issues - one the real impact of COVID, and then our stupid governments actions over it. I was referring to the former, and nothing about the latter. Maybe get your facts straight before trying to set me straight .

PS - actually had a chat with an old friend after my previous posts. Found out her SO's mother passed away 3 weeks ago from COVID. It's minor - no impact on him or his daughter.

Goodluck xox

 

[Geoff.D]

Who cares what mediahack says?
Are you suggesting they are a better source of information than the scientific journal "Emerging Infectious Diseases" which is published by the CDC?

Again, here is the peer reviewed article: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6302597/

Clearly you are UNABLE to even read and comprehend your own references. Even THAT reference refers to the fact that the term is INCORRECTLY used by many BECAUSE of the FAILURE to interpret what it means.

But then, if you stop reading before you reach the point where that is explained, you will continue to wallow in your own ignorance.