South African Covid-19 News and Discussions 2

[Geoff.D]

The SAMRC was interviewed ths afternoon on eNCA and the point was made that that "excess deaths" value calculated by them on BOTH their methods, (the adjusted baseline, and the traditional way), does NOT means the excess deaths figure is only attributable to Covid 19.
The figure is applicable to ALL natural causes.
Which means that more people are probably dying that would normally die of other natural causes ( TB, HIV, etc) than would normally have died for this time of the year.
The problem that is happening is because people are not going to health care facilities out of fear of contracting Covid 19, not taking their medication because they do not have any to take, or, receiving treatment that might have prevented their death from "normal" natural causes.
Unless, an autopsy is done on every single person, and, a dominant reason is identified, we will never know precisely how many people have died from Covid 19 directly and even less so, those that died indirectly from Covid 19.

All the excess deaths analysis will show is that in this period more people died than expected and that the most likely reason is the effect that Covid 19 had on health care services and support.

It is a subtle difference but important to understand. The correct "official" figures are ones where a competent medical team have ruled the patient died of natural causes, and was infected by Covid 19 at the time of death, which was ruled as the dominant cause of death.

A very in depth analysis of all the deaths would have to be undertaken to try and separate out the deaths directly attributable to Covid 19 from those where Covid 19 was indirectly responsible.

All very subtle stuff but important to appreciate when trying make sense of the numbers.

 

[pinball wizard]

Wjhci means thta more people are probably dying thta would normally die of other natural causes ( TB, HIV, etc) than would normally have died for this time of the year.

Probably as a direct result of the crackdown. Any bullshit about it being due to hospitals over capacity is simply bullshit as those deaths (if they are coming) are still on the way. The hospitals only just started hitting their limit.

 

[Lupus]

The SAMRC was interviwed ths afternoon on eNCA and the point was made that that "excess deaths" value calculated by them on BOTH their methods, (the adjusted baseline, and the traditional way), does NOT means the excess deaths figure is only attributable to Covid 19.
The figure is applicable to ALL natural causes.
Wjhci means thta more people are probably dying thta would normally die of other natural causes ( TB, HIV, etc) than would normally have died for this time of the year.
The population is that is happening because people are not going to health care facilities out of fear of contracting Covid 19, not taking their medication because they do not have any to take, or, receiving treatment that might have prevented their death from "normal" natural causes.
Unless, an autopsy is done on every single person that is done, and, a dominant reason is identified, we will never know precisely how many people have died from Covid 19 directly and even less so, those that died indirectly from Covid 19.

All the Excess deaths analysis, will show is that in this period more people died than expected and thta the most likely reason is the effect that Covid 19 had on health cares services and support.

It is a subtle difference but important to understand. The correct "official" figures are ones where a competent medical team have ruled the patient died of natural causes, and was infected by Covid 19 at the time of death, which was ruled as the dominant cause of death.

Very in depth analysis of all the deaths would have to be undertaken to try and separate out the deatjs directly attributable to Covid 19 from those where Cvid 19 was indirectly responsible.

All very subtle stuff but important to appreciate when trying make sense of the numbers.

Like the teenager who died in a car accident who had covid 19? Did the virus take over and steer the car?

 

[BeerIsNotGood...]

Like the teenager who died in a car accident who had covid 19? Did the virus take over and steer the car?

Jesus is all about sharing

 

[The_Right_Honourable_Brit]

The SAMRC was interviwed ths afternoon on eNCA and the point was made that that "excess deaths" value calculated by them on BOTH their methods, (the adjusted baseline, and the traditional way), does NOT means the excess deaths figure is only attributable to Covid 19.
The figure is applicable to ALL natural causes.
Wjhci means thta more people are probably dying thta would normally die of other natural causes ( TB, HIV, etc) than would normally have died for this time of the year.
The population is that is happening because people are not going to health care facilities out of fear of contracting Covid 19, not taking their medication because they do not have any to take, or, receiving treatment that might have prevented their death from "normal" natural causes.
Unless, an autopsy is done on every single person that is done, and, a dominant reason is identified, we will never know precisely how many people have died from Covid 19 directly and even less so, those that died indirectly from Covid 19.

All the Excess deaths analysis, will show is that in this period more people died than expected and thta the most likely reason is the effect that Covid 19 had on health cares services and support.

It is a subtle difference but important to understand. The correct "official" figures are ones where a competent medical team have ruled the patient died of natural causes, and was infected by Covid 19 at the time of death, which was ruled as the dominant cause of death.

Very in depth analysis of all the deaths would have to be undertaken to try and separate out the deatjs directly attributable to Covid 19 from those where Cvid 19 was indirectly responsible.

All very subtle stuff but important to appreciate when trying make sense of the numbers.

There is huge conflict of interest with the SAMRC and the SA Modelling Consortium (whose models have been out by a significant amount in terms of infections and deaths). It's in the interests of the SAMRC to inflate deaths is what I'm saying.

 

[rietrot]

It seems to me you don't know what contagious means. Recoveries have nothing to do with it, you first need to be infected to recover.

This thing is contagious as fukk. If we had carried on like before without taking any precautions and without any kind of lockdown or behavioural changes, the whole of SA would have been infected by mid-April:

View attachment 879681

Lol wow that scale. We could have been done with carona in March and everyone would be dead.

 

[R13...]

I'm gunning for smokes and booze.

Fuck the schools

He's probably just announcing school closures as that's what they're discussing today. Don't seem them telling unions to go sleep with themselves.

 

[Temujin]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1286287462944448512

Agreed, probably schools.

Presidents spokesman @CyrilRamaphosa will address the nation, ftfy
TLDW: Alcohol bad, gbv, cigarette bad, gbv, taxi good, gbv, its in your hands, gbv

 

[Polymathic]

 

[ScottulusMaximus]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1286287462944448512

Agreed, probably schools.

Nah, will be breathing. 100% of people who contracted covid got it by breathing. Banning it is the logical step.

Actually no that's not enough micromanagement. If you aren't infected then you can't inhale, if you've tested positive then you can't exhale.

 

[rietrot]

https://www.iol.co.za/news/south-af...ly-samrc-c59ad1ca-a9bf-403d-a18f-9255d79ea46c

the country recorded excess natural deaths of 17 090 between May 6 and July 14.

Actual number, is more meaningful than percentage.

Some Easter Cape hospital is hiding 10k more Carona deaths.

 

[Splinter]

Come now...

There's nothing to fear..

Well according to @Splinter government only cares about our health. No obvious power grabs here folks.

Now, a slight challenge to you - where did I remotely say such a thing?

Edit: show me such and I might even give you a bottle of vodka

 

[Geoff.D]

I don't really want to get into a slanging match about this very subtle parameter (especially with someone who is consistently rude and snarky to everyone) but you are incorrect, R0 is not a static figure.

The infection Rate R is not a static figure, as is Re (or Rt) depending on the reference.

R0 is a dangerous parameter because it is so often , and I quote the above reference posted by Sinbad and Tetrasect:

which make R0 easily misrepresented, misinterpreted, and misapplied. R0 is not a biological constant for a pathogen, a rate over time, or a measure of disease severity, and R0 cannot be modified through vaccination campaigns. R0 is rarely measured directly, and modeled R0 values are dependent on model structures and assumptions. Some R0 values reported in the scientific literature are likely obsolete. R0 must be estimated, reported, and applied with great caution because this basic metric is far

The value is simply a number, calculated at a certain point in time, normally very soon after the start of a infection event, within a defined environment and only applicable at the point in time when it is estimated, based on a specific method and set of assumptions.

It is therefore static and only applicable at that point in time, hence where the R0 (read R nought) comes from. It cannot be adapted, fiddled with, multiplied by any number of your choosing outside of the place and time where it is calculated - the resultant calculation is meangless garbage. It is a starting point in tracking the progress of an infection event in a specific country, area, environment, that is all.

You can choose recalculate a value whenever you like.

The only meaningful parameter in this regard IS the Effective Infection Rate (Re or Rt) as calculated by the group supporting Mediahack and based on a method which they have properly documented.

It is therefore WRONG for anyone to talk about R0 as is done over and over again in the media by all sorts of people. Just stop doing it and talk about Re instead and everyone will be happy.

The value calculated in the UK or any where else in the World is not directly applicable to SA because it will not take into account all the variables as stated in Tretrasects post, sucked out of context from the reference he chose to use.

Hence why the work done by the team supporting the Mediahack group is what we should be looking at. And that is only because the government has chosen to keep the data they are using secret.

 

[RedViking]

Apparently squirrel is talking tonight at 8pm

Yeah! He is going to say local tourism can open, kids can go back to school!

 

[NeonNinja]

Schools will be closed. Obviosuly.

 

[BeerIsNotGood...]

Now, a slight challenge to you - where did I remotely say such a thing?

Edit: show me such and I might even give you a bottle of vodka

You didn't say it directly

Your post came across that way

 

[Splinter]

You didn't say it directly

Your post came across that way

Ja right. You made the same silly error as the other two, and mixed up two different issues.

No vodka for you!

 

[Sinbad]

Oh my god.
The woman who lives across the road from us genuinely believes in the 5g-covid link.

I feel dirty.

 

[Lupus]

Oh my god.
The woman who lives across the road from us genuinely believes in the 5g-covid link.

I feel dirty.

Point a dish at her house.

 

[rietrot]

Oh my god.
The woman who lives across the road from us genuinely believes in the 5g-covid link.

I feel dirty.

The data is pritty convincing.