South African Covid-19 News and Discussions 2

[tetrasect]

Rt is supposed to be an average measure of all past infections, and independent of the transmission mechanism(s). Clusters, travel-restrictions, lockdowns, schools, and masks are all relevant factors, but not directly related to the total numbers.

Rt is simply R0 multiplied by the fraction of the population that is susceptible. So my guess is while the daily number has stayed somewhat the same, there was a change in the number of susceptible people in Cpt.
Maybe they also calculate it by taking Cpt's R0 multiplied by the whole of SA's susceptible population, then infections in other provinces would have an influence as well.

 

[The_Right_Honourable_Brit]

You can also get large increases in R if it is off a lowish base. Happened in Germany.

 

[dualmeister]

Concerns raised as Mokonyane's daughter nets R3m Gauteng PPE tender

As the Gauteng PPE tender scandal rumbles on, the Mokonyane family find themselves under the microscope this week. Here's what we know...

www.thesouthafrican.com

 

[Geoff.D]

Rt is simply R0 multiplied by the fraction of the population that is susceptible. So my guess is while the daily number has stayed somewhat the same, there was a change in the number of susceptible people in Cpt.
Maybe they also calculate it by taking Cpt's R0 multiplied by the whole of SA's susceptible population, then infections in other provinces would have an influence as well.

I have had detailed feedback from the team supporting media hack, and the wild increase in the Rt value as reflected on the plot ( beta dashboard for WC) from about 0.8 or so to 1.16 is two-fold.

1. The missing data for the 19th, which appears to have been included in the data for the 21st.
2. The second is the updating cycles used by media hack. They do not necessarily run updates every 24 hours.

The alternative source:

Reproduction Live | Estimating R for Covid-19

Is Covid-19 multiplying or dying out in your region?

reproduction.live

is updated more regularly and hence does not show this sharp change in values.

Once again illustrates the point I have made many times over. It is not useful at all to jump to any conclusions based on the data available in SA. There are just too many data integrity issues with the data publically available.

If you work through the maths, the sensitivities of the results to accurate and timeous data are quite large, especially the last few days.
It means in the WC media hack plot as it stands at 1.16 on the 25th is pretty meaningless at the moment with the last accurate ones being those calculated before the 18th July.

The above link also provides an estimate of the number of persons considered to be infectious in SA and for each province.

 

[Gordon_R]

Rt is simply R0 multiplied by the fraction of the population that is susceptible. So my guess is while the daily number has stayed somewhat the same, there was a change in the number of susceptible people in Cpt.
Maybe they also calculate it by taking Cpt's R0 multiplied by the whole of SA's susceptible population, then infections in other provinces would have an influence as well.

Calculating a proper number for Rt is much, much harder than it looks. We know that testing in SA is neither random, nor consistent, and misses about 90% of all infections. Proper estimation in such a scenario involves looking both at new test cases, as well as deaths, and modelling the underlying number of infections based on various assumptions.

I have had detailed feedback from the team supporting media hack, and the wild increase in the Rt value as reflected on the plot ( beta dashboard for WC) form about 0.8 or so to 1.16 is two-fold.

1. The missing data for the 19th, which appears to have been included in the data for the 21st.
2. The second is the updating cycles used by media hack. They do not necessarily run updates very 24 hours.

The alternative source:

Reproduction Live | Estimating R for Covid-19

Is Covid-19 multiplying or dying out in your region?

reproduction.live

is updated more regularly and hence does not show this sharp change in values.

Once again illustrates the point I have made many times over. It is not useful at all to jump to any conclusions based on the data available in SA. There are just too many data integrity issues with the data publically available.

If you work through the maths, the sensitivities of the results to accurate and timeous data are quite large, especially the last few days.
It means in the WC media hack plot as it stands at 1.16 on the 25th is pretty meaningless at the moment with the last accurate ones being those calculated before the 18th July.

Thanks for investigating. Noise in data takes many forms, and what you found is all part of what I was referring to.

 

[The_Right_Honourable_Brit]

Some newly updated regulations from the tourism briefing:

> Curfew moved to 10pm
> Intra-provincial (travel within a province) is allowed for leisure purposes.

 

[Geoff.D]

Some newly updated regulations from the tourism briefing:

> Curfew moved to 10pm
> Intra-provincial (travel within a province) is allowed for leisure purposes.

Still fiddling are they? The curfew should be something like 10 for restaurants to close, and 11 for staff to get home if they want to play these silly games.

Better than nothing I suppose.

 

[daveza]

Some newly updated regulations from the tourism briefing:

> Curfew moved to 10pm
> Intra-provincial (travel within a province) is allowed for leisure purposes.

But you can't stay overnight ?

 

[The_Right_Honourable_Brit]

But you can't stay overnight ?

You can...just need to arrive at the hotel/B&B before 10pm I guess...

 

[daveza]

Brilliant - so you can meet up with family somewhere in your province, stay overnight.... but you still can't just visit them in their own homes.

 

[BBSA]

"Accommodation establishments are now permitted to operate for leisure intra-provincially subject to not having more than two people per room except for a nuclear family (parents and their children). Establishments are already legally obliged to require and keep a copy of proof of identity," she revealed.

 

[Sinbad]

when will these regs be published?

 

[Geoff.D]

when will these regs be published?

Good question ---- probably after the Zoll Roller has decided NOT to allow the changes.

 

[FlashSA]

when will these regs be published?

Next few days according to a media report I read

 

[Brawler]

I thought intra-provincial leisure travel was already allowed? Or was it rescinded?
I've been all over the place and even stopped at a roadblock. All the cops were interested in was booze.

 

[Lupus]

I've been all over as well and never been stopped. The only thing really locked down is smokes and booze . In reality things look like they were just getting back

 

[The_Right_Honourable_Brit]

Yeah, people I know went all the way to Plett in early June from CT...about a 5-hour drive. Not really much changed with these but I guess it gives more certainty to those frightful people who love authority telling them what to do.

 

[Nirv]

Has anyone here crossed provincial borders and experienced any potential problems when doing so?

 

[The_Right_Honourable_Brit]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1288746301463683072

Will other provinces be so transparent?

 

[now05ster]

PMB if you test positive. Else it's out of savings.

Some medical aids now cover the test based on a risk assessment, irrespective of PCR positive result.