South African Covid-19 News and Discussions 2

Geoff.D

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Just heard on the radio that you can now check cases by ward in Cape Town but haven't got the link. Let me take a look.

Edit: Can't seem to find any link. Maybe I mis-heard.
One of the presentations today detailed a model developed by a researcher at UCT who can do this. But the links to his presentation were not tabled.

His presentation was particularly good in my opinion because it starts with the facts on the ground formulates a way to understand and model those facts and then presents it in a form that allows you to visualise the results and use that then to guide management strategies. A bottom-up approach instead f the normal top-down BS and fear-mongering type of model.

There were three or so of these presentations, all highly practical with useful stuff. I hope that their work is published where we can all access it properly. I have recorded the presentations and will try and view them again and extract as much as I can.
 

Gordon_R

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Just heard on the radio that you can now check cases by ward in Cape Town but haven't got the link. Let me take a look.

Edit: Can't seem to find any link. Maybe I mis-heard.
AFAIK its always been by district. The obvious reason is that positive tests in hospitals bear no relation to the actual address of the patient, only the area in which the hospital is situated. Any other methodology would produce distortion of the data, etc.
 

Gordon_R

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One of the presentations today detailed a model developed by a researcher at UCT who can do this. But the links to his presentation were not tabled.

His presentation was particularly good in my opinion because it starts with the facts on the ground formulates a way to understand and model those facts and then presents it in a form that allows you to visualise the results and use that then to guide management strategies. A bottom-up approach instead f the normal top-down BS and fear-mongering type of model.

There were three or so of these presentations, all highly practical with useful stuff. I hope that their work is published where we can all access it properly. I have recorded the presentations and will try and view them again and extract as much as I can.
There are probably multiple models around, but each of the researchers will have signed an NDA to get access to the data. The government is only releasing 'approved' model projections. This is not a valid way of doing science...
 

netstrider

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^ So they are saying 1 million active cases, 12-13 million confirmed in South Africa alone, whilst globally we're at 5 million confirmed cases currently?
 

Temujin

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^ So they are saying 1 million active cases, 12-13 million confirmed in South Africa alone, whilst globally we're at 5 million confirmed cases currently?
Realistically, I think around 100million cases in SA by Aug
 

Jabulani22

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Realistically, I think around 100million cases in SA by Aug
Thats the very conservative estimate though , also many will die before being tested so we could have millions of deaths not due to covid worldwide.

Any address by Mr President today ?
 

Kusana

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That model presented by the government "experts" on Tuesday is highly suspect and seems to follow closely in the footsteps of the now universally discredited Imperial College model.

They are predicting between 1 and 1.2 million active cases at peak. That would mean about 2.5 million total cases which is half the current world total but South Africa's population is 0.75% of the world total. Huh? Doesn't stack up.

They are also predicting that at peak there will be a requirement for 85000 hospital beds and between 20000 and 35000 ICU beds which will utterly overwhelm the existing capacity of about 3500 ICU beds. But that doesn't stack up either. Looking at the worst effected countries in the world (Italy, Spain, France, Sweden and the UK) who have gone through the peak, and relating their numbers to the pretty consistent data being published by the Western Cape, it implies that the impact on South Africa will be about ten times worse than the worst in the world so far. Aikona!

The scary bit is that one assumes that this is what the government is basing it's strategy on!
 

ToxicBunny

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That model presented by the government "experts" on Tuesday is highly suspect and seems to follow closely in the footsteps of the now universally discredited Imperial College model.

They are predicting between 1 and 1.2 million active cases at peak. That would mean about 2.5 million total cases which is half the current world total but South Africa's population is 0.75% of the world total. Huh? Doesn't stack up.

They are also predicting that at peak there will be a requirement for 85000 hospital beds and between 20000 and 35000 ICU beds which will utterly overwhelm the existing capacity of about 3500 ICU beds. But that doesn't stack up either. Looking at the worst effected countries in the world (Italy, Spain, France, Sweden and the UK) who have gone through the peak, and relating their numbers to the pretty consistent data being published by the Western Cape, it implies that the impact on South Africa will be about ten times worse than the worst in the world so far. Aikona!

The scary bit is that one assumes that this is what the government is basing it's strategy on!
Nah... They're tweaking and twisting things to suit what they want more than likely now...
 

Geoff.D

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That model presented by the government "experts" on Tuesday is highly suspect and seems to follow closely in the footsteps of the now universally discredited Imperial College model.

They are predicting between 1 and 1.2 million active cases at peak. That would mean about 2.5 million total cases which is half the current world total but South Africa's population is 0.75% of the world total. Huh? Doesn't stack up.

They are also predicting that at peak there will be a requirement for 85000 hospital beds and between 20000 and 35000 ICU beds which will utterly overwhelm the existing capacity of about 3500 ICU beds. But that doesn't stack up either. Looking at the worst effected countries in the world (Italy, Spain, France, Sweden and the UK) who have gone through the peak, and relating their numbers to the pretty consistent data being published by the Western Cape, it implies that the impact on South Africa will be about ten times worse than the worst in the world so far. Aikona!

The scary bit is that one assumes that this is what the government is basing it's strategy on!
That is the scary part. No one seems to be bothered by it or trying to correlate the results of these models against reality.

It is the same sickness the pervades just about ALL these high-level models being used everywhere.
 

/dev/null

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Geoff.D

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