South African Covid-19 News and Discussions 3

[Geoff.D]

Do you just make things up as you go along?

Interview this morning.
"We do have data on the J&J vaccine w.r.t. its effectiveness against the SA variant, BUT the final report has yet to be released". = We don't know how effective it is against our variant.
"We DON'T know beyond a lab set of results about how effective the Russian vaccines is against our bug."
"We don't know how effective ANY of the vaccines are against the vulnerable group".
" We will not be rolling out the vaccine to the general pop this year".
"The J&J vaccine due next week has received emergency approval and the rollout should start soon and this batch is a donation."
"Plans to buy more are underway"
Great news heh!.
Lots of certainty, heh?
Great prospects heh!
Sure. Carry on living in your super optimistic bubble.

/Edit: the first scientific commentary about what will happen if our lot proceed with their Kreepy Krawly vaccination program is that the virus WILL be encouraged to mutate and generate more variants faster than the science can hope to keep up with booster shots, modifications etc.

The only viable vaccination program is a fast one blanketing a complete area at a time if we are to have ANY hope whatsoever in getting pretty much any benefit out of the vaccinations.

 

[neoprema]

"Dr Mary Kawonga from the Gauteng Coronavirus Command Council says there's still a risk of a third and fourth surge"

Its almost like the stupids are ASKING for more waves...

 

[Lupus]

"Dr Mary Kawonga from the Gauteng Coronavirus Command Council says there's still a risk of a third and fourth surge"

Its almost like the stupids are ASKING for more waves...

But we're in the peak of the storm, wait eye wait I no idea.

 

[neoprema]

But we're in the peak of the storm, wait eye wait I no idea.

If we're starting a vaccination program the narrative should be : "We're working hard and hoping not to see another wave".

Thats what I expect.

 

[Lupus]

If we're starting a vaccination program the narrative should be : "We're working hard and hoping not to see another wave".

Thats what I expect.

This would be the desired response, but that isn't how the world is spinning it.

 

[Grant]

Interview this morning.
"We do have data on the J&J vaccine w.r.t. its effectiveness against the SA variant, BUT the final report has yet to be released". = We don't know how effective it is against our variant.
"We DON'T know beyond a lab set of results about how effective the Russian vaccines is against our bug."
"We don't know how effective ANY of the vaccines are against the vulnerable group".
" We will not be rolling out the vaccine to the general pop this year".
"The J&J vaccine due next week has received emergency approval and the rollout should start soon and this batch is a donation."
"Plans to buy more are underway"
Great news heh!.
Lots of certainty, heh?
Great prospects heh!
Sure. Carry on living in your super optimistic bubble.

/Edit: the first scientific commentary about what will happen if our lot proceed with their Kreepy Krawly vaccination program is that the virus WILL be encouraged to mutate and generate more variants faster than the science can hope to keep up with booster shots, modifications etc.

The only viable vaccination program is a fast one blanketing a complete area at a time if we are to have ANY hope whatsoever in getting pretty much any benefit out of the vaccinations.

What interview - link?

 

[Grant]

Interview this morning.
"We do have data on the J&J vaccine w.r.t. its effectiveness against the SA variant, BUT the final report has yet to be released". = We don't know how effective it is against our variant.
"We DON'T know beyond a lab set of results about how effective the Russian vaccines is against our bug."
"We don't know how effective ANY of the vaccines are against the vulnerable group".
" We will not be rolling out the vaccine to the general pop this year".
"The J&J vaccine due next week has received emergency approval and the rollout should start soon and this batch is a donation."
"Plans to buy more are underway"
Great news heh!.
Lots of certainty, heh?
Great prospects heh!
Sure. Carry on living in your super optimistic bubble.

/Edit: the first scientific commentary about what will happen if our lot proceed with their Kreepy Krawly vaccination program is that the virus WILL be encouraged to mutate and generate more variants faster than the science can hope to keep up with booster shots, modifications etc.

The only viable vaccination program is a fast one blanketing a complete area at a time if we are to have ANY hope whatsoever in getting pretty much any benefit out of the vaccinations.

The single-dose Johnson & Johnson vaccine has been shown to be effective against severe disease across age groups, geographies and virus variants, including variants found in South Africa.

Johnson & Johnson announced results from the phase 3 Ensemble clinical trial showed the coronavirus vaccine was 85% effective in preventing severe disease and demonstrated complete protection against Covid-19 related hospitalization and deaths.
The trial had 44 325 people enrolled from the US, Latin America & South Africa.

In South Africa the vaccine was 57% effective against moderate to severe disease, and 89% efficient against severe disease and death. Nearly all of the cases were due to infection with the new variant.

“Protection was generally consistent across race, age groups, including adults over 60 years of age, and across all variants and regions studied, including South Africa where nearly all cases of Covid-19 (95%) were due to infection with a SARS-CoV-2 variant from the B.1.351 lineage

Vaccine Candidate 72% Effective in the US and 66% Effective Overall at Preventing Moderate to Severe COVID-19, 28 Days after Vaccination
85% Effective Overall in Preventing Severe Disease and Demonstrated Complete Protection Against COVID-19 related Hospitalization and Death as of Day 28

Protection Against Severe Disease Across Geographies, Ages, and Multiple Virus Variants, including the SARS-CoV-2 Variant from the B.1.351 Lineage[1] Observed in South Africa
Single-shot compatible with standard vaccine distribution channels provides important tool in pandemic setting
[1] The B.1.351 lineage also known as 501Y.V2 variant and 20H/501Y.V2 (formerly 20C/501Y.V2) is a variant of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19
NEW BRUNSWICK, N.J., January 29, 2021 – Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) (the Company) today announced topline efficacy and safety data from the Phase 3 ENSEMBLE clinical trial, demonstrating that the investigational single-dose COVID-19 vaccine in development at its Janssen Pharmaceutical Companies met all primary and key secondary endpoints. The topline safety and efficacy data are based on 43,783 participants accruing 468 symptomatic cases of COVID-19.
The Phase 3 ENSEMBLE study is designed to evaluate the efficacy and safety of the Janssen COVID-19 vaccine candidate in protecting moderate to severe COVID-19, with co-primary endpoints of 14 days and 28 days following vaccination. Among all participants from different geographies and including those infected with an emerging viral variant, Janssen’s COVID-19 vaccine candidate was 66% effective overall in preventing moderate to severe COVID-19, 28 days after vaccination. The onset of protection was observed as early as day 14. The level of protection against moderate to severe COVID-19 infection was 72% in the United States, 66% in Latin America and 57% in South Africa, 28 days post-vaccination.

 

[MiW]

How the f is that moderate ?

Moderate COVID-19 disease was defined as laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 and one or more of the following: evidence of pneumonia, deep vein thrombosis, shortness of breath or abnormal blood oxygen saturation above 93%, abnormal respiratory rate (≥20); or two or more systemic symptoms suggestive of COVID-19

 

[sand_man]

This would be the desired response, but that isn't how the world is spinning it.

Watching Israel's new infection rates. It's disappointing given the rate at which they've rolled out the vaccine. 4k new infections yesterday alone and currently have more confirmed active cases than SA. Seems it takes time for the vaccine to kick in and double dose required.

 

[sand_man]

..

 

[MiW]

Watching Israel's new infection rates. It's disappointing given the rate at which they've rolled out the vaccine. 4k new infections yesterday alone and currently have more confirmed active cases than SA. Seems it takes time for the vaccine to kick in and double dose required.

Their over 60s hospitalizations are going down, much lower than under 60

 

[sand_man]

Also, although Israel's fatality rate has always been very low. 1st world health care.

 

[Gordon_R]

Their over 60s hospitalizations are going down, much lower than under 60

There was a detailed link on the over 60 data, posted about a week ago. Some people are impatient and expect instantaneous results, while all studies show that immunity takes several weeks to develop. None of the vaccines have been definitively proven to lower transmission. See:

Covid: Israel's vaccine rollout linked to infection fall

Less than 0.1% of vaccinated people caught coronavirus, and far fewer became ill.

www.bbc.com

 

[neoprema]

I think what we need to accept in 2021, is that we're preventing deaths from COVID, we're not preventing the sniffles, bad cough and headache (At least not at 100% in the variants)

That is still a win, its a just different kind of win.

 

[The_Right_Honourable_Brit]

Gauteng with their dodgy stats gain... 70 percent hospitalisation rate if we were to take their stats literally.

 

[Gordon_R]

I think what we need to accept in 2021, is that we're preventing deaths from COVID, we're not preventing the sniffles, bad cough and headache (At least not at 100% in the variants)

That is still a win, its a just different kind of win.

Slightly off topic, but that's the way the UK seems to be heading:

Covid: We could live with virus 'like we do flu' by end of year, says Hancock

But scientists warn against treating coronavirus like the flu, with mutations getting "more dangerous".

www.bbc.com

"I hope that Covid-19 will become a treatable disease by the end of the year," Mr Hancock told the Telegraph.

He said the new treatments will play an important role in "turning Covid from a pandemic that affects all of our lives into another illness that we have to live with, like we do flu. That's where we need to get Covid to over the months to come".

 

[neoprema]

Slightly off topic, but that's the way the UK seems to be heading:

Covid: We could live with virus 'like we do flu' by end of year, says Hancock

But scientists warn against treating coronavirus like the flu, with mutations getting "more dangerous".

www.bbc.com

Treatments have been slow? I mean other than Invermectin which is neither here nor there at the moment, we haven't really seen antivirals like Tamiflu did for Influenza etc.

 

[Lupus]

Treatments have been slow? I mean other than Invermectin which is neither here nor there at the moment, we haven't really seen antivirals like Tamiflu did for Influenza etc.

Because for a long while they were banking on the vaccines. Now that is shown to be as effective as the flus they need to find other means.
Also Tamiflu isn't in SA

 

[neoprema]

Because for a long while they were banking on the vaccines. Now that is shown to be as effective as the flus they need to find other means.
Also Tamiflu isn't in SA

The thing is vaccines can't eradicate COVID-19 - definitely not this year. What they should do is bring COVID down to a level of colds and flu where we simply manage it as and when it happens. So some treatments even if they just lower the effects on the virus will also go a long way to making it "one of those things".

My question is then at what numbers will WHO declare the pandemic over? (even though it could be endemic like flu)

 

[Gordon_R]

The thing is vaccines can't eradicate COVID-19 - definitely not this year. What they should do is bring COVID down to a level of colds and flu where we simply manage it as and when it happens. So some treatments even if they just lower the effects on the virus will also go a long way to making it "one of those things".

My question is then at what numbers will WHO declare the pandemic over? (even though it could be endemic like flu)

Pandemics rarely end, they sometimes fade away. See:

How do pandemics end? History suggests diseases fade but are almost never truly gone

As ready as you are to be done with COVID-19, it’s not going anywhere soon. A historian of disease describes how once a pathogen emerges, it’s usually here to stay.

theconversation.com