South African Covid-19 News and Discussions 3

[pinball wizard]

Given your extensive knowledge, you should probably be nominated as director of the SA Medical Research Council.

Pick me. I'm a myBB certified physician.

 

[MiW]

I would love to hear the explanation of why there are more people admitted with Covid, than actual active cases in GP.

 

[R13...]

I would love to hear the explanation of why there are more people admitted with Covid, than actual active cases in GP.

View attachment 1021930

Also they report 219 deaths but the table shows 417.
The department of health says 5246 active cases in GP.

 

[surface]

How is this even remotely accurate?

More than half of South Africans have been infected with Covid, estimates Discovery’s CEO | Business Insider

Based on the country's high excess death number, Discovery estimates that more half of South Africans have already been infected with Covid-19.

www.businessinsider.co.za

 

[pinball wizard]

How is this even remotely accurate?

More than half of South Africans have been infected with Covid, estimates Discovery’s CEO | Business Insider

Based on the country's high excess death number, Discovery estimates that more half of South Africans have already been infected with Covid-19.

www.businessinsider.co.za

Covid-19: Remarkable results from blood donor survey

For the four provinces analysed, over half the population has likely had a SARS-CoV-2 infection

www.groundup.org.za

It seems like the research backs it up.

 

[TheMightyQuinn]

Pick me. I'm a myBB certified physician.

 

[Geoff.D]

I would love to hear the explanation of why there are more people admitted with Covid, than actual active cases in GP.

View attachment 1021930

Well, if my cousin's treatment in GP is anything to go by, all new patients are dumped in a Covid ward, then left there to vrot for 24 hours, then tested, another 24 hours, then recorded as positive or moved if negative.

 

[Arzy]

Gore said that the high infection rate could provide some protection against the feared third wave of the pandemic, which could hit South Africa in the coming, colder months.

Winter is coming.

 

[nivek]

I would love to hear the explanation of why there are more people admitted with Covid, than actual active cases in GP.

View attachment 1021930

Could be that they were admitted while they were positive, a few weeks have past & they're no longer carrying live virus but are battling with post covid eg lung clotting?

 

[Gordon_R]

Well, if my cousin's treatment in GP is anything to go by, all new patients are dumped in a Covid ward, then left there to vrot for 24 hours, then tested, another 24 hours, then recorded as positive or moved if negative.

The medical term is person under investigation (PUI). When someone is admitted to hospital with synptoms consistent with Covid, and are awaiting PCR test confirmation, they are kept in a segregated ward. Once the results are known they are treated, or moved to another ward. Standard medical practice.

 

[flytek]

So much stupid in one post.


Given your extensive knowledge, you should probably be nominated as director of the SA Medical Research Council.

Let me make it more simple for you.
In 4 weeks there will basically be no-one dying of covid in SA confirmed by the graphs I posted.
We will not have completed or probably even started mass vaccinations before its all over.

Looking at the Khayelitsha section it becomes clear that the second wave more infectious strain does not reinfect one in significant numbers. If it did Khayelitsha would also have seen a taller second wave.

Clearly the first strains burned themselves out and the second one is almost done too.

So now what is the panic about again?
A possible third wave? What sort of mutation will it take to cause such a third wave? Is that likely? Will the vaccines be any good against it?

Refute my arguments rather than my person. Your method is rather low brow.

 

[The_Right_Honourable_Brit]

How is this even remotely accurate?

More than half of South Africans have been infected with Covid, estimates Discovery’s CEO | Business Insider

Based on the country's high excess death number, Discovery estimates that more half of South Africans have already been infected with Covid-19.

www.businessinsider.co.za

Poorer areas never really locked down and there are lots of poor people in SA. Also South Africa has a rather youthful population, many got it without realising it.

 

[C4Cat]

Clearly the first strains burned themselves out and the second one is almost done too.

What do you mean by this? How does a virus burn itself out? Are you're assuming the drop in infection rate is due to immunity developing in people, rather than the effect of the lockdown and alcohol ban? This may not be the case. Are you also assuming that once infected, a person is immune far into the future? Again, this may not be the case.

 

[MiW]

Also they report 219 deaths but the table shows 417.
The department of health says 5246 active cases in GP.

The table is using NICD data

 

[Geoff.D]

The medical term is person under investigation (PUI). When someone is admitted to hospital with synptoms consistent with Covid, and are awaiting PCR test confirmation, they are kept in a segregated ward. Once the results are known they are treated, or moved to another ward. Standard medical practice.

Except in her case she had no symptoms at all, was admitted for a known condition which required surgery, so by no stretch of any imagination could she be declared a PUI. She had already been screened by her own doctor BEFORE she walked into hospital on her own two legs. She was scheduled for surgery the next day.
The only conclusion we came to was gross incompetence.

 

[Daveogg]

Looking at the Khayelitsha section it becomes clear that the second wave more infectious strain does not reinfect one in significant numbers. If it did Khayelitsha would also have seen a taller second wave.

I've learnt to never be too sure with predicting anything Covid related.

What is rather odd is we don't have official first wave / second wave reinfection numbers. NICD have dates and ID No of infected people, should just be comparing a data base. I think it would be a very helpful piece of the puzzle.

I've seen lots of Covid but only a handful at most of reinfection.

 

[MiW]

I've learnt to never be too sure with predicting anything Covid related.

What is rather odd is we don't have official first wave / second wave reinfection numbers. NICD have dates and ID No of infected people, should just be comparing a data base. I think it would be a very helpful piece of the puzzle.

I've seen lots of Covid but only a handful at most of reinfection.

One study of 40 000 people who were infected in the first wave, found that 4 000 got reinfected.

 

[Daveogg]

Except in her case she had no symptoms at all, was admitted for a known condition which required surgery, so by no bstretch of any imagination could she be declared a PUI.
The only conclusion we came to was gross incompetence.

Everyone admitted is a PUI until the PCR returns, however we divided our PUI into "clinical Covid PUI" and asymptomatic PUI and they went into separate wards.

 

[Daveogg]

One study of 40 000 people who were infected in the first wave, found that 4 000 got reinfected.

That's interesting SA data? Higher than I would have guessed, but back to my point NICD have the data.

 

[Geoff.D]

That's interesting SA data? Higher than I would have guessed, but back to my point NICD have the data.

Yes it should be pretty easy to do the analysis. It will be more difficult to determine if the "reinfections" were due to false positives the first time around or otherwise.