South African Covid-19 News and Discussions 3

Nurple Derple

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No hard data to quote, but the way I understand it, J&J is the same effectiveness as 1st dose of Pfizer so at the moment no one has been dosed with one that is more effective till the 2nd doses start rolling out.

Whats more interesting is what if the J&J is more effective for a future variant, Astrazeneca (which we pawned off to Africa who couldnt use most of them then expired) is showing quite high effectiveness for the Delta variant.
Any data on how the J&J vac does against the Delta variant?
 

Oldfut

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No hard data to quote, but the way I understand it, J&J is the same effectiveness as 1st dose of Pfizer so at the moment no one has been dosed with one that is more effective till the 2nd doses start rolling out.

Whats more interesting is what if the J&J is more effective for a future variant, Astrazeneca (which we pawned off to Africa who couldnt use most of them then expired) is showing quite high effectiveness for the Delta variant.
The AZ debacle was criminal in its apparent negligence for SA and I would not be surprised if it wasn't criminal as regards some backhanders to the ANC cadres as well. Mkhize doctored something?
 

Leno

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Lupus

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I've lost count of the amount of work colleagues, friends and family that are currently positive
Still not able to count the people I know, friends or family that have it on more then 3 fingers. Currently it is my aunt and step uncle, last wave was my mom, step dad and brother in the UK, plus a friends brother and a friend of friend. Only one past away.
First wave didn't know a single person officially.
 

TedLasso

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We've lost a few all around the world , mostly HCPs who then brought it home, and spread so then elderly parents, etc too. Locally know of a few too.

But with this wave 3, it seems every day, I know someone that now has it ,etc. It's really caught up with all of us. Heck even I went for a covid test this week, cos it appeared after the mini outbreak at work , I had it. Thankfully negative

A heartwarming event recently was elderly family members in the UK :- the three brothers and their families had not seen each other physically for 17 months and recently got together after all were fully vaccinated. What a day to watch remotely.
 

nivek

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Still not able to count the people I know, friends or family that have it on more then 3 fingers. Currently it is my aunt and step uncle, last wave was my mom, step dad and brother in the UK, plus a friends brother and a friend of friend. Only one past away.
First wave didn't know a single person officially.
I know 15+ at the moment

The majority part of clusters that broke out in companies we work with..

I dont believe them when they say that the varient going around now is the same as the 2nd wave, it's spreading far too easily.

The GP graph alone is evidence that there's something very different going on in this wave
 
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MiW

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Carnage!! The trajectory of that graph is unreal?!
1624173106662.png
I suspect we doing a lot more testing this wave than the previous 2. At the height of the previous waves we hit national 1624173143244.png positivity rates of around 30%. I don't have a positivity rate by province from 2nd wave peaks.

Hospital admissions seem to peak around 5k-6k but Charlotte Maxeke wasn't closed during the first 2 waves.

What's truly terrifying to the number of new cases in the last 7 days. Must be close to 40k. A percentage of those are going to need a hospital bed in the near future.
 

KantSnyer

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I know 15+ at the moment

The majority part of clusters that broke out in companies we work with..

I dont believe them when they say that the varient going around now is the same as the 2nd wave, it's spreading far too easily.

The GP graph alone is evidence that there's something very different going on in this wave
This wave definitely much worse than the previous in GP just from personal experience, crazy amount of kids getting it this time round.

Been a serious wake up call as much as I'm gatvol it's time to hunker down again and avoid any unnecessary contact.
 

Geoff.D

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That's not how vaccine effectiveness works.

BUT, that is precisely how most laypeople will interpret the information!
The mistake being made is that just going to be vaccinated in SA at the moment IS a risky business, ESPECIALLY if you are going to sit in a queue in a desperate attempt to be vaccinated as a walk-in.
 
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Gordon_R

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@MiW I can't quote your post (seems to be embedded in previous text).

We used to get weekly figures for R0/Rt to get a handle on the actual rate of growth in new cases. Clearly the numbers are very high, but it is not obvious if the rate of growth is different from the second wave.

My interpretation is that 'lockdown fatigue' has led to significantly slacker behaviour amongst young adults, and seemingly in corporate environments too.

Edit: Comprehensive links and data here:

R0/Rt numbers are all over the map (by province), but seem to be consistent with exponential growth (currently 1.47), and not extraordinarily high:
 
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Arzy

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Personally it seems like Gauteng is getting slammed. In the previous 2 waves I had 1 person I was associated with who was positive.

As it stands now we've got 15 positive in our company and subsidiaries and we've sadly lost 2 of those people. Almost everyone of our contractors currently have a number of positives. Two parties who I've been negotiating with have also passed away.
 

sand_man

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The critical factor is patients in hospital. Interesting to compare now to the 2nd wave peak.

7c5d57ce236c470d73779c288787de0a.jpg
f0fc41affd09b2ec88ef52827de25dbd.jpg
 

Geoff.D

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Personally it seems like Gauteng is getting slammed. In the previous 2 waves I had 1 person I was associated with who was positive.

As it stands now we've got 15 positive in our company and subsidiaries and we've sadly lost 2 of those people. Almost everyone of our contractors currently have a number of positives. Two parties who I've been negotiating with have also passed away.
GP was being hammered a month ago already BUT the authorities and their blind faith in having thresholds that dictate what they do is why it is now so bad.
 

Arzy

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GP was being hammered a month ago already BUT the authorities and their blind faith in having thresholds that dictate what they do is why it is now so bad.
Would anecdotally agree with that.

Met with one of the large hospital groups board a few weeks back and a remark was made then already that they were worried and to give it 3 weeks before their capacity was destroyed.
 

Gordon_R

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GP was being hammered a month ago already BUT the authorities and their blind faith in having thresholds that dictate what they do is why it is now so bad.

It is clear by now that the authorities have very little control over the pandemic, at least in the longer time-scales. Only when every member of the public knows 5-15 people who have tested positive, do behavioural changes happen, and slow down the wave of new infections.

This was all predicted by mathematical models in February 2020. In practical terms this pandemic is barely different from the many that have occurred in the last 2000 years. Human nature doesn't change much...
 

rvZA

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Something is terribly wrong in Gauteng. The infection rate is totally out of control. I think government is hiding true statistics. People and families are getting hammered. Private hospital beds are full. In fact, many offers patients to be transported to hospitals in other provinces. Heard from a single pharmacy this morning where rapid testing are done that they had over 90 people being tested by 11:00 and not a single person tested negative. Community groups on Facebook are on fire with infected people and whole families in Gauteng.
 

Geoff.D

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Ha! An existing hospital stays closed, a hospital donated to the Province stands unused and idle and at another one in PTA, the Chief whatsisname is finally prescribing the only thing that is known to work.

What a laughing joke GP is!

Calls to reopen Charlotte Maxeke’s 56 ICU beds, closed since April, have fallen on deaf ears. An online petition to reopen the hospital, initiated by Prof Daynia Ballot, head of the Wits School of Clinical Medicine, has over 24,000 signatures. But the hospital remains closed.

At George Mukhari hospital in Pretoria, chief intensivist Dr Nathi Mdladla is now prescribing Ivermectin, authorised for controlled compassionate use by the South African Health Products Regulatory Authority (Sahpra).

Says Mdladla: “When both patients and healers are despondent and feel overwhelmed, outcomes cannot be good for both. In the last two weeks I feel I have been given hope as my patients are given a fighting chance. Most importantly, I feel emboldened to be giving a legal product.”
 
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