South African Covid-19 News and Discussions 3

Lupus

Honorary Master
Joined
Apr 25, 2006
Messages
36,380
Gauteng had mild first and second waves compared to other provinces like WC. So it stands to reason that GP would have a bad 3rd wave, others more mild 3rd waves.
Actually some provinces barely had any waves, the smaller ones that is, EC, WC and KZN were knocked hard. Also are we still calling that first thing a wave? Honestly December should've been the first wave, what was experienced in June/July last year was just a ripple in comparison to December and now.
 

Geoff.D

Honorary Master
Joined
Aug 4, 2005
Messages
23,798
Will COVID hit the areas with the looters the most? They have destroyed all infra basically.
I have already stated that I think nothing is going to happen, the course of the third wave is already determined, unaffected by things like this.

What IS going to happen, is the vaccine program has been and will continue to be adversely affected, treatment of those that get sick is going to be more difficult, which in turn means cases will go undetected until they become serious, which will put extra load on hospital etc and might end up causing more deaths.
 

Gordon_R

Honorary Master
Joined
Jul 5, 2009
Messages
18,255
The effects of Covid on life expectancy in SA have been measured:
- Almost 700,000 South Africans have died over the past year, according to Stats SA’s 2021 mid-year population estimates which were published on Monday.
- This is similar to the deaths recorded at the height of the country’s HIV pandemic in 2006.
- The Covid-19 pandemic had dropped South Africa’s life expectancy by 3.5 years, with males declining to below 60-years-old at rates last recorded in 2014.
 

Arzy

Honorary Master
Joined
Apr 18, 2004
Messages
28,652
Had to take my son in for a test today as he's going in for a procedure on Thursday. Went to 3 testing places and all had queues of 15 to 20 people. Don't know what to make of it.
 

Lupus

Honorary Master
Joined
Apr 25, 2006
Messages
36,380
What? We are at 2 million, the world is at 192 million, with 4 million deaths so if you get it there is a 2% chance of death. Even in SA it's under 3%.
 

HS2000

Well-Known Member
Joined
Dec 6, 2020
Messages
434
What? We are at 2 million, the world is at 192 million, with 4 million deaths so if you get it there is a 2% chance of death. Even in SA it's under 3%.
I am still afraid tbh.

A girl on Tiktok in her late 20s was placed on a ventilator.She did recover but it is still scary.

It is like there isn't a pattern to covid.

A friend of mine lost a family member to covid & he was in late 30s

What happened to all the crap they initially told us? , "it only affects old people & people with health conditions".

None of the people I mentioned have underlying conditions.
 

Speedster

Honorary Master
Joined
May 2, 2006
Messages
14,921
What? We are at 2 million, the world is at 192 million, with 4 million deaths so if you get it there is a 2% chance of death. Even in SA it's under 3%.
Excess deaths are nigh on 200 000. If your 2 million is correct that's basically 1 in 10. Does this change things for you?

India by itself has reported over 4 million excess deaths
 

Lupus

Honorary Master
Joined
Apr 25, 2006
Messages
36,380
Excess deaths are nigh on 200 000. If your 2 million is correct that's basically 1 in 10. Does this change things for you?

India by itself has reported over 4 million excess deaths
You still harping on about the mythical excess deaths, you know it's an estimate right? It's not the real number, we will only really know the real excess death in 2 years, the estimate is taking in undocumented cases of deaths from unregistered people. Stop thinking the excess death is a real number in SA, why do you think it's not on official documents yet? Cause it ain't real yet, so for now the figures we have are the best we can look at.
 

Lupus

Honorary Master
Joined
Apr 25, 2006
Messages
36,380
I am still afraid tbh.

A girl on Tiktok in her late 20s was placed on a ventilator.She did recover but it is still scary.

It is like there isn't a pattern to covid.

A friend of mine lost a family member to covid & he was in late 30s

What happened to all the crap they initially told us? , "it only affects old people & people with health conditions".

None of the people I mentioned have underlying conditions.
Actually it still is a disease that effects re elderly worse, they just happen to be the ones who got vaccines first in most places, hence they are now better protected.
Apparently tax payers aren't a priority
 

R13...

Honorary Master
Joined
Aug 4, 2008
Messages
39,011
You still harping on about the mythical excess deaths, you know it's an estimate right? It's not the real number, we will only really know the real excess death in 2 years, the estimate is taking in undocumented cases of deaths from unregistered people. Stop thinking the excess death is a real number in SA, why do you think it's not on official documents yet? Cause it ain't real yet, so for now the figures we have are the best we can look at.
Yes it's estimates and don't mean they're all COVID. But they're excess of what you'd normally see without a pandemic.
 

Lupus

Honorary Master
Joined
Apr 25, 2006
Messages
36,380
Yes it's estimates and don't mean they're all COVID. But they're excess of what you'd normally see without a pandemic.
No they are entirely estimates, we can't count on them till 2 years when they are properly collated.
 

Speedster

Honorary Master
Joined
May 2, 2006
Messages
14,921
Yes it's estimates and don't mean they're all COVID. But they're excess of what you'd normally see without a pandemic.
Lupus is under the delusion that the actuaries at SAMRC who calculate excess deaths thumb suck a number each week. He doesn't get that when they use the word estimate it is simply because they account for reporting delays. He also ignore the fact that the recent statssa mid-year population report correlates virtually perfectly with the excess death numbers.

He seems to think this whole thing is a hoax and no one is actually dying
 

Lupus

Honorary Master
Joined
Apr 25, 2006
Messages
36,380
Lupus is under the delusion that the actuaries at SAMRC who calculate excess deaths thumb suck a number each week. He doesn't get that when they use the word estimate it is simply because they account for reporting delays. He also ignore the fact that the recent statssa mid-year population report correlates virtually perfectly with the excess death numbers.

He seems to think this whole thing is a hoax and no one is actually dying
Did I ever say it was a hoax? Did I say no one is dying? I said don't think that the excess deaths are the be all and end all. But hey you can keep being the chicken little.
 

Botha22

Senior Member
Joined
Mar 30, 2019
Messages
529
No they are entirely estimates, we can't count on them till 2 years when they are properly collated.
Maybe 2 years to attribute them to a particular cause. But surely the number of deaths is accurately recorded and you don't need 2 years to compare them to prior years?
 

Lupus

Honorary Master
Joined
Apr 25, 2006
Messages
36,380
Maybe 2 years to attribute them to a particular cause. But surely the number of deaths is accurately recorded and you don't need 2 years to compare them to prior years?
They are, it's currently over 60000 for COVID
This is why the excess deaths are an estimate
From the SAMRC website itself.
"In the context of the emerging COVID-19 pandemic, it has become essential to track the weekly number of deaths that occur. Deaths recorded on the National Population Register are provided to the SAMRC on a weekly basis. These have been scaled up to estimate the actual number of deaths by accounting for the people who are not on the population register and the under-registration of deaths. The methodology for the adjustment and predicted values have been changed to enable monitoring in 2021 and the reporting week has been changed to an ‘epi-week’ that runs from Sunday to Saturday. The estimated numbers are compared with the number that would be expected based on the historical data from 2014-2019 (see Methodological Note for more details). The number of deaths of persons 1-year and older are reported because birth registration was put on hold during lockdown stage 5 affecting the number of infant deaths recorded on this system. The start date of each week is represented on the graph. "

So they are estimating it by the justification of the under registration of deaths and apparently people not on the population register?
 
Top