South African Covid-19 News and Discussions 3

Gordon_R

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I'd still not really look at excess deaths until we have official numbers, there's a reason it takes a few years to get the real excess numbers. But even reported deaths look lower then second wave, only a little bit bigger then first wave, so Delta hit more people but actually resulted in less deaths? So the virus is more transmittable but not as fatal?

You can't just look at total deaths and assume anything about the variants from a single number. The age spectrum of those infected during each wave has changed, and the vaccine rollout was prioritised on an age basis. By definition this means that the 3rd wave had a lower death rate, but this was due to population factors and not virus lethality.
 

Lupus

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You can't just look at total deaths and assume anything about the variants from a single number. The age spectrum of those infected during each wave has changed, and the vaccine rollout was prioritised on an age basis. By definition this means that the 3rd wave had a lower death rate, but this was due to population factors and not virus lethality.
Wait... You mean we cannot look at the total numbers? So wtf are people still looking at them? Why the constant barragement of them over 19 months now?
 

tetrasect

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Aug 22, 2009
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Wait... You mean we cannot look at the total numbers? So wtf are people still looking at them? Why the constant barragement of them over 19 months now?

Because the total numbers are high despite the elderly being vaccinated.
 

Lupus

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Because the total numbers are high despite the elderly being vaccinated.
Yup the total number of infected is higher, which is what we expected with delta, but the deaths don't correlate, which could be because of the vaccine or because Delta isn't as deadly, sadly we wouldn't really know as they kind of hit the world at the same time.
What it does show is that if we do keep up vaccines we might just be able to start moving on.
 

Geoff.D

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@Geoff I think you will find he is quite accomplished at numerical analysis and has a understanding of statistics.
Even worse then that he allowed this rubbish to tarnish his reputation.
 

Geoff.D

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Ignore Geoff, he has a habit of running his mouth when he has no clue what he's even talking about, he seems to think he is the authority on critical analysis.
I know enough to see through BS distorted crap statistical analysis.
 

pinball wizard

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I thought that was still the thought? I mean didn't a lot of people say that yeah it may hit more people but the deaths are still relatively low compared to the previous ones?
That flies in the face of the sky is falling narrative being forced down our throats here (especially), and by the media and the National Cornavirus Comand Council of Cunts.
 

Geoff.D

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I thought that was still the thought? I mean didn't a lot of people say that yeah it may hit more people but the deaths are still relatively low compared to the previous ones?
Okay lets say we take a look at the 1st of December to 1st of March during second wave.
In that 90 days:
Deaths: 27 981
New cases: 721 660
Giving a death rate of 3.81%

Then we look at 1st June to 1st September covering third wave:
Deaths: 25 895
New cases: 1 117 972
Giving a death rate of 2.31%

So yeah Delta was actually less deadly.

First wave which was 1st June to 1st September 2020
Deaths: 13 844
New cases: 594 302
Giving a death rate of 2,32%

So yeah technically third wave was less deadlier even though it was basically longer.
Exactly. Confused by the difference between a steep sharp peak compared to a lower broader peak. Anyone heard of "area under the curve analysis"? Anyone seen some credible AUC done our data? No? Have you wondered why?
 

Geoff.D

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You can't just look at total deaths and assume anything about the variants from a single number. The age spectrum of those infected during each wave has changed, and the vaccine rollout was prioritised on an age basis. By definition this means that the 3rd wave had a lower death rate, but this was due to population factors and not virus lethality.
No an implication you cannot justify. These are not mutually exclusive impacts. In other words it is a complicated interaction between the two. Assuming of course, that these are the only two things impacting on the numbers which also not so.
 

Geoff.D

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But over and over the same guy (and a bunch of other experts here) tells us that we must look at the excess deaths as the true number of covid dead.
And that is why PANDA needs to be listened to and acknowledged. But,unfortunately, they refuse to sing along to the accepted tune. And show up the crap analysis going on, and now even WC fiddling their data to emphasize their favoured story!
The rest of the country's data has always been suspicious. WC somehow rose above that until now. Why tarnish its image as the best run province by manipulating data to promote a false narrative about vaccinations? It is unthinkable!
 

flytek

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The discovery actuaries took the excess death number and took 10% off to account for other types of excess death.
Lets just say that excess deaths are so high that little else besides covid could be responsible for the vast majority of those excess deaths.
The excess deaths are also closely following the shape and form of the covid cases graph....
Most other types of deaths are accounted for and calculated into expected deaths.
Yes these hard times with lockdowns and fuller hospitals will cause other excess deaths besides covid deaths but those are likely fewer.
Also many lives will have been saved by lack of booze and late night car accidents from our now over a year of curfews.
So the current excess deaths should pretty much be accepted as covid deaths unless one can come up will brilliant arguments why that shouldn't be the case.
A brilliant argument is not "but its an estimate so can be thrown out" as Lupus will no doubt be here to claim shortly.

Either way there are excess deaths and 10's of millions of uncounted cases in this country alone so unless data is taking those issues into account it will be little more than BS.
 

pinball wizard

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The discovery actuaries took the excess death number and took 10% off to account for other types of excess death.
Lets just say that excess deaths are so high that little else besides covid could be responsible for the vast majority of those excess deaths.
The excess deaths are also closely following the shape and form of the covid cases graph....
Most other types of deaths are accounted for and calculated into expected deaths.
Yes these hard times with lockdowns and fuller hospitals will cause other excess deaths besides covid deaths but those are likely fewer.
Also many lives will have been saved by lack of booze and late night car accidents from our now over a year of curfews.
So the current excess deaths should pretty much be accepted as covid deaths unless one can come up will brilliant arguments why that shouldn't be the case.
A brilliant argument is not "but its an estimate so can be thrown out" as Lupus will no doubt be here to claim shortly.

Either way there are excess deaths and 10's of millions of uncounted cases in this country alone so unless data is taking those issues into account it will be little more than BS.
See, expert.
 

Geoff.D

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The discovery actuaries took the excess death number and took 10% off to account for other types of excess death.
Lets just say that excess deaths are so high that little else besides covid could be responsible for the vast majority of those excess deaths.
The excess deaths are also closely following the shape and form of the covid cases graph....
Most other types of deaths are accounted for and calculated into expected deaths.
Yes these hard times with lockdowns and fuller hospitals will cause other excess deaths besides covid deaths but those are likely fewer.
Also many lives will have been saved by lack of booze and late night car accidents from our now over a year of curfews.
So the current excess deaths should pretty much be accepted as covid deaths unless one can come up will brilliant arguments why that shouldn't be the case.
A brilliant argument is not "but its an estimate so can be thrown out" as Lupus will no doubt be here to claim shortly.

Either way there are excess deaths and 10's of millions of uncounted cases in this country alone so unless data is taking those issues into account it will be little more than BS.
Agree. Which excess deaths figure do you believe should be used?
The all causes figures (which will bring in any reductions due to accidents etc), or the natural excess death figures only?
 

Rkootknir

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Dec 8, 2005
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1,147
Agree. Which excess deaths figure do you believe should be used?
The all causes figures (which will bring in any reductions due to accidents etc), or the natural excess death figures only?
If you look at the unnatural causes death chart you'll see that there are almost zero excess deaths from unnatural causes. The actual unnatural death counts are almost always within the prediction bounds except for the first lockdown period where there was a "deficit" of unnatural deaths.

1631874218980.png
So almost all the excess deaths are due to natural causes.

Source: https://www.samrc.ac.za/sites/default/files/files/2021-09-15/weekly11Sep2021.pdf
 
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