South African Covid-19 News and Discussions 3

Geoff.D

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If you look at the unnatural causes death chart you'll see that there are almost zero excess deaths from unnatural causes. The actual unnatural death counts are almost always within the prediction bounds except for the first lockdown period where there was a "deficit" of unnatural deaths.

View attachment 1149678
So almost all the excess deaths are due to natural causes.

Source: https://www.samrc.ac.za/sites/default/files/files/2021-09-15/weekly11Sep2021.pdf
Yes why I raised it. Despite the alcohol bans not much impact is visible in the graph you posted. Our population continues on its merry way regardless.
How do they determine a wave as ended?
The CSIR guys base it on the positivity rate. So according to them, we still have a way to go.
 

Lupus

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How do they determine a wave as ended?
I'd like to know when they decided to start it? Cause the NICD says it technically started on the 10th of June


My math maybe old and weary, but that isn't 120 days from today. So they're saying it started in the middle of May??

Even their math on the second wave doesn't make sense, officially 9th of December and the second wave ended in February.
 

Geoff.D

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I'd like to know when they decided to start it? Cause the NICD says it technically started on the 10th of June


My math maybe old and weary, but that isn't 120 days from today. So they're saying it started in the middle of May??
DoH uses is own definition. But they have not really quantified it.
 

Nemesys

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Agree. Which excess deaths figure do you believe should be used?
The all causes figures (which will bring in any reductions due to accidents etc), or the natural excess death figures only?
There is enough evidence that the 85500 Covid 19 deaths currently reported are grossly under stated. By how much we will likely never know. A report by ASISA states an increase of 309,733 lives lost compared to the death claims statistics for the previous 12 months.

What do we believe?



The Association for Savings and Investment South Africa (ASISA) has published its latest death claims statistics, showing that 1,023,083 policyholders died between 1 April 2020 and 31 March 2021.

The association said that the statistics reflect claims made against individual life, group life (offered by employers), credit life and funeral cover policies.

Hennie de Villiers, deputy chair of the ASISA life and risk board committee, said that this represents an increase of 309,733 lives lost compared to the death claims statistics for the previous 12 months when 713,350 policyholders died.

“These are staggering numbers, and there is no doubt that Covid-19 has caused many of these additional deaths, whether directly as a result of a person contracting the virus or because people were reluctant to seek medical attention for other serious conditions.

“The hard lockdown conditions, curfews and alcohol bans would have reduced violent and accidental deaths,” he said.



Insurance data shows big increase in deaths across South Africa (businesstech.co.za)
 

ShaunSA

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The Association for Savings and Investment South Africa (ASISA) has published its latest death claims statistics, showing that 1,023,083 policyholders died between 1 April 2020 and 31 March 2021.

Over a million dead policyholders in one year? o_O
 

Paulsie

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And show up the crap analysis going on, and now even WC fiddling their data to emphasize their favoured story!
The rest of the country's data has always been suspicious. WC somehow rose above that until now. Why tarnish its image as the best run province by manipulating data to promote a false narrative about vaccinations? It is unthinkable!
First it was Google in WC, now Amazon. Then the DA started independent trade talks with the US government. All natural and beneficial to the WC, but a certain picture is starting to emerge.
 

flytek

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Jul 22, 2019
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If you are adamantly sticking by something, provide better proof?
I'm not the expert on excess deaths or the uncounted cases. Luckily by following those that are better at these things than me and sometime extrapolating the obvious it is possible to draw exactly the same conclusions as I have. SAMRC for the excess deaths and the blood bank data and Discoveries actuaries for the uncounted cases. The excess death and blood bank data have been posted multiple times but if you insist I will dig it up again. However you sort of appear to just be just trolling so i think I'll just skip it.
Feel free to counter with your data that disputes SAMRC the blood bank data and discoveries actuaries.
 

Geoff.D

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I'm not the expert on excess deaths or the uncounted cases. Luckily by following those that are better at these things than me and sometime extrapolating the obvious it is possible to draw exactly the same conclusions as I have. SAMRC for the excess deaths and the blood bank data and Discoveries actuaries for the uncounted cases. The excess death and blood bank data have been posted multiple times but if you insist I will dig it up again. However you sort of appear to just be just trolling so i think I'll just skip it.
Feel free to counter with your data that disputes SAMRC the blood bank data and discoveries actuaries.
I have no problem with the SAMRC, Blood Bank data.
The Discovery Actuaries are starting to make fools of themselves.
SAMRC is filling a huge gap that STATSA are failing to address.
The Blood Bank are using well defined scientific tests to get their data.
Discovery is sucking their stuff out of dubious stats and suspicious analyses.
 

flytek

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The blood bank data said 47% prior infections by sometime in May 2021 which was before the delta wave. Just a simple look at the below one can see if prior to delta 47% were infected that by the end of delta it will be 80% which Discovery is saying has already passed. Either way they are close enough...
 

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Daveogg

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The blood bank data said 47% prior infections by sometime in May 2021 which was before the delta wave. Just a simple look at the below one can see if prior to delta 47% were infected that by the end of delta it will be 80% which Discovery is saying has already passed. Either way they are close enough...
So flytek, your prediction for the fourth wave, a tsunami, a perfect Jeffreys bay point break, or a little ripple?
 

Geoff.D

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So flytek, your prediction for the fourth wave, a tsunami, a perfect Jeffreys bay point break, or a little ripple?
My prediction is the LDs are going to be relaxed further till after the elections. Then, miraculously a reason will be found to reintroduce. Just before Xmas.
The only person at the moment to trust is Prof de Oliveira and his team as to whether this will be as a result of a new variant or just wash and repeat of Delta.
 
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flytek

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So flytek, your prediction for the fourth wave, a tsunami, a perfect Jeffreys bay point break, or a little ripple?
With three big waves and some vaccines having most likely imparted some form of immunity to the vast majority of the population one would hope for less deadly waves going forward. One must assume any new wave will have to be caused by a more infectious strain or one that easily reinfects previously infected. One would also hope that whichever new strain does manage to cause a decent wave that it won't easily kill those with antibodies already.

It depends on future mutations which I am not qualified to predict.
I would guess a more infectious strain would penetrate into the no-antibody population as well as the antibody population and create a decent wave of cases. How many it kills comparatively will have to be observed at the time.
 

Lupus

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My prediction is the LDs are going to be relaxed further till after the elections Them miraculously a reason will be found to reintroduce. Just before Xmas.
The only person at the moment to trust is Prof de Oliveira and his team as to whether this will be as a result of a new variant or just wash and repeat of Delta.
Why before Xmas? Last time was after it
 
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