South African Covid-19 News and Discussions 3

NoLuck Chuck

Senior Member
Joined
May 16, 2019
Messages
860
SA Covid situation since Mon 18/10:
7-day average (total)

New cases: 434 (3040)
Deaths: 44 (308)
Vax: 134390 (21321996)

Active cases has seen a nice drop, but a slight uptick since Friday 22nd.
 

Daveogg

Expert Member
Joined
Nov 11, 2003
Messages
1,755
Yup it's that good of a test that we definitely know anything under 2% has it, no margin for error
Sorry I don't understand your post.

Every measurement, be that a medical test or calculating the area of your bedroom wall when you plan to paint it has a "margin of error". In medical tests we talk about sensitivity and specificity. The question is the magnitude of these parameters and the consequences of such.

What is your estimate of the specificity of SARS CoV2 PCR tests?
 

Lupus

Honorary Master
Joined
Apr 25, 2006
Messages
38,563
Sorry I don't understand your post.

Every measurement, be that a medical test or calculating the area of your bedroom wall when you plan to paint it has a "margin of error". In medical tests we talk about sensitivity and specificity. The question is the magnitude of these parameters and the consequences of such.

What is your estimate of the specificity of SARS CoV2 PCR tests?
Claims are it's 97%, so take that into account with other margin of errors, that 1% could be 0.25% for all we know.
 

Daveogg

Expert Member
Joined
Nov 11, 2003
Messages
1,755
Claims are it's 97%, so take that into account with other margin of errors, that 1% could be 0.25% for all we know.
Ok yes agree fully, or we could be missing some with false negatives so 1,5% but in the general ball park.
 

NoLuck Chuck

Senior Member
Joined
May 16, 2019
Messages
860
Experts just can't agree:confused:

Political activities around the local government elections on November 1 are unlikely to lead to a fourth wave of Covid-19 infections. That's according to Dr Harry Moultrie, a senior epidemiologist at the National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD). “While there will likely be some cluster outbreaks associated with campaign activities related to the elections, it appears unlikely that this will result in a resurgence,” said Moultrie.

However, Dr Angelique Coetzee, the chairperson of the SA Medical Association (SAMA) said they were expecting the fourth wave to land from mid-December or early 2022. She added that there was a possibility that the elections may well be a super-spreader event. “It's all about behaviour, people going to vote, nightclubs, holidays, family gatherings, etc. And hence, our predictions, but we might also get it wrong,” she said.


 
Last edited:
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Experts just can't agree:confused:

Political activities around the local government elections on November 1 are unlikely to lead to a fourth wave of Covid-19 infections. That's according to Dr Harry Moultrie, a senior epidemiologist at the National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD). “While there will likely be some cluster outbreaks associated with campaign activities related to the elections, it appears unlikely that this will result in a resurgence,” said Moultrie.

However, Dr Angelique Coetzee, the chairperson of the SA Medical Association (SAMA) said they were expecting the fourth wave to land from mid-December or early 2022. She added that there was a possibility that the elections may well be a super-spreader event. “It's all about behaviour, people going to vote, nightclubs, holidays, family gatherings, etc. And hence, our predictions, but we might also get it wrong,” she said.However, Dr Angelique Coetzee, the chairperson of the SA Medical Association (SAMA) said they were expecting the fourth wave to land from mid-December or early 2022. She added that there was a possibility that the elections may well be a super-spreader event. “It's all about behaviour, people going to vote, nightclubs, holidays, family gatherings, etc. And hence, our predictions, but we might also get it wrong,” she said.



... which is exactly why many people have become less enamoured with experts...

Still remember one expert saying 4th of December will mark the beginning of the 4th wave.

Also pretty sure Tom Moultrie is a guy not a girl (although you can never be too sure these days):

“While there will likely be some cluster outbreaks associated with campaign activities related to the elections, it appears unlikely that this will result in a resurgence,” said Moultrie.

She said it's hard to tell when another wave will actually hit our shores.
 

Lupus

Honorary Master
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Apr 25, 2006
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38,563
... which is exactly why many people have become less enamoured with experts...

Still remember one expert saying 4th of December will mark the beginning of the 4th wave.

Also pretty sure Tom Moultrie is a guy not a girl (although you can never be too sure these days):
Remember some experts said we would hit 300k deaths, then again the way we keep counting this will happen.
 

ShaunSA

Derailment Squad
Joined
Sep 7, 2005
Messages
37,224
... which is exactly why many people have become less enamoured with experts...

Still remember one expert saying 4th of December will mark the beginning of the 4th wave.

Also pretty sure Tom Moultrie is a guy not a girl (although you can never be too sure these days):

Wasn't that the thieving Minister's best buddy?

He used to be such a hero... like Jamnadas. Sadly both out of favor now
 

NoLuck Chuck

Senior Member
Joined
May 16, 2019
Messages
860
... which is exactly why many people have become less enamoured with experts...

Still remember one expert saying 4th of December will mark the beginning of the 4th wave.

Also pretty sure Tom Moultrie is a guy not a girl (although you can never be too sure these days):
Think it might have been a slip of the tongue(pen) on the part of the journo.
Harry Moultrie is indeed a guy and works at the NICD.
Tom, however, is a prof at UCT.
 
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