South African Covid-19 News and Discussions 3

Lupus

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But that was supposed to be in 2020.
They never really said, they just said if we don't have lockdowns we will have 300k deaths, we're still not out of lockdowns so ipso facto, when does the counting stop?
 

Cage Rattler

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Nov 29, 2005
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So, given virtually nothing is happening besides the equivalent of a bad minibus accident in terms of deaths we need masks, curfews, lockdowns, etc. ? Never mind the country's overall vax rate is only around 20% too if I remember correctly.
 

Lupus

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So, given virtually nothing is happening besides the equivalent of a bad minibus accident in terms of deaths we need masks, curfews, lockdowns, etc. ? Never mind the country's overall vax rate is only around 20% too if I remember correctly.
Yeah still need those masks
 

noxibox

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They never really said, they just said if we don't have lockdowns we will have 300k deaths, we're still not out of lockdowns so ipso facto, when does the counting stop?
The South African government also said they were having lockdowns to spread out the cases not reduce them.
 

noxibox

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Recovery rate highest it's been in a long time, positivity rate lowest. So this 4th wave gonna happen by magic or will it be like all other ANC promises a damp squib
I heard the media is starting the new cases hype again.
 

Geoff.D

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The Latest fully vaccinated figures as of yesterday (2021-10-25).
GP is as usual where it always is, at the bottom of the list.

No Province has reached a statistically significant level of fully vaccinated people. Hence it is not possible to associate the reduction in Cocid 19 (any parameter you want to use) with the vaccination program

As far as age groups are concerned, if someone can now show that there is a significant reduction in cases/hospitalisation/deaths in the over 60 group, it might be possible that the vaccination rollout is starting to have an effect in that age group now.

1635260820154.png
 
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Geoff.D

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Latest Rt values:
Notice a key difference between the minimum values seen before and the current minimum values?

The uncertainty associated with the current value is very very large, whereas with previous minimums where the values had low uncetrainty.
1635261502325.png
 

twr

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Oct 14, 2008
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Latest Rt values:
Notice a key difference between the minimum values seen before and the current minimum values?

The uncertainty associated with the current value is very very large, whereas with previous minimums where the values had low uncetrainty.
View attachment 1175428
What does an uncertainty value mean when associated with the RT? And how is this calculated?
 

Daveogg

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Nov 11, 2003
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Latest Rt values:
Notice a key difference between the minimum values seen before and the current minimum values?

The uncertainty associated with the current value is very very large, whereas with previous minimums where the values had low uncetrainty.
View attachment 1175428
This is a simply statistics.
The R is essentially the change in case numbers over time. For example if on average one person infects two other people over 10 days the number of active cases will double and the RT =2.
Presently with case numbers so low the certainty of the accuracy of the case numbers decreases. The test parameters come into play. With a test specificity of 99% if we test 18000 people we would expect 180 false positive yet we had only 140 odd positives yesterday so you can see how that induces uncertainty into the current numbers. Now we square that uncertainty by looking at two points in time so that increases the uncertainty of the current Rt.
Hope I kinda explained it well enough but I think you will get the picture. If cases go from 150 to 300 in 10 days time is that really a Rt of 2? Whereas if they go from 15000 to 30000 that is far more statistically relevant.
 

Geoff.D

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This is a simply statistics.
The R is essentially the change in case numbers over time. For example if on average one person infects two other people over 10 days the number of active cases will double and the RT =2.
Presently with case numbers so low the certainty of the accuracy of the case numbers decreases. The test parameters come into play. With a test specificity of 99% if we test 18000 people we would expect 180 false positive yet we had only 140 odd positives yesterday so you can see how that induces uncertainty into the current numbers. Now we square that uncertainty by looking at two points in time so that increases the uncertainty of the current Rt.
Hope I kinda explained it well enough but I think you will get the picture. If cases go from 150 to 300 in 10 days time is that really a Rt of 2? Whereas if they go from 15000 to 30000 that is far more statistically relevant.
Yes quite correct. A good explanation. It shows how the underlying dynamics and data values will affect the calculations.

This sets up a situation that is easily exploited by those with ulterior motives. Hence why we already have at least two camps amongst our experts, one group saying that a 4th wave is unlikely and if it does occur, it is going to be insignificant.
The other camp is looking at the higher estimate and saying the 4th wave is definite and it is going to be severe enough to justify a return of lockdowns.

Now put this into the perspective of how our data is collected in SA. We have always had a problem with data collection in GP. At the other extreme, WC data collection has been excellent.

And you can see it in the data and the analyses done.
 

Ghost64

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Sep 12, 2021
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How did the virus just die? Was it lockdown, vaccines, social distancing or masks?
 

flytek

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Jul 22, 2019
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Herd immunity for the current strains under the current conditions has been reached.
As the strains or conditions change herd immunity may falter.
 
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