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Yeah still need those masksSo, given virtually nothing is happening besides the equivalent of a bad minibus accident in terms of deaths we need masks, curfews, lockdowns, etc. ? Never mind the country's overall vax rate is only around 20% too if I remember correctly.
The South African government also said they were having lockdowns to spread out the cases not reduce them.They never really said, they just said if we don't have lockdowns we will have 300k deaths, we're still not out of lockdowns so ipso facto, when does the counting stop?
What does an uncertainty value mean when associated with the RT? And how is this calculated?
This is a simply statistics.
Here is the best reference for Rt that I know of.What does an uncertainty value mean when associated with the RT? And how is this calculated?
Yes quite correct. A good explanation. It shows how the underlying dynamics and data values will affect the calculations.This is a simply statistics.
The R is essentially the change in case numbers over time. For example if on average one person infects two other people over 10 days the number of active cases will double and the RT =2.
Presently with case numbers so low the certainty of the accuracy of the case numbers decreases. The test parameters come into play. With a test specificity of 99% if we test 18000 people we would expect 180 false positive yet we had only 140 odd positives yesterday so you can see how that induces uncertainty into the current numbers. Now we square that uncertainty by looking at two points in time so that increases the uncertainty of the current Rt.
Hope I kinda explained it well enough but I think you will get the picture. If cases go from 150 to 300 in 10 days time is that really a Rt of 2? Whereas if they go from 15000 to 30000 that is far more statistically relevant.