South African Covid-19 News and Discussions 3

tetrasect

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Aug 22, 2009
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Wait so we don't wait 2 weeks??
Well there were an extra 13000 cases yesterday (and we know by how contagious and mild this variant is, combined with the lowest lockdown level to date, plus it being December holiday season, that the real number is a vastly higher), yet there are only 354 people in the ICU, compared to 1636 people at a similar time at the beginning of the last wave (June 16th).
Even in April between waves 2 and 3 when there were only about 1000 cases a day we still had upwards of 600 people in the ICU.
So yeah, unless some anti-miracle occurs, this variant is a big fat nothing-burger in the danger department.
 

Lupus

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Apr 25, 2006
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Well there were an extra 13000 cases yesterday (and we know by how contagious and mild this variant is, combined with the lowest lockdown level to date, plus it being December holiday season, that the real number is a vastly higher), yet there are only 354 people in the ICU, compared to 1636 people at a similar time at the beginning of the last wave (June 16th).
Even in April between waves 2 and 3 when there were only about 1000 cases a day we still had upwards of 600 people in the ICU.
So yeah, unless some anti-miracle occurs, this variant is a big fat nothing-burger in the danger department.
We've been at level one numerous times over the course of the last 18 months, in fact pretty much every time before the next wave :).
The 47th and 48th week did have 1200 and 3600 cases booked into hospitals, the 48th week was last week? This week it's already at 765
But considering the 37th week 13.09.2021 - 19.09.2021 there were 3800 cases going in and that was at the end of the third wave, the third wave was seeing almost 10 000 cases going in a week.
 

tetrasect

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We've been at level one numerous times over the course of the last 18 months, in fact pretty much every time before the next wave :).
The 47th and 48th week did have 1200 and 3600 cases booked into hospitals, the 48th week was last week? This week it's already at 765
But considering the 37th week 13.09.2021 - 19.09.2021 there were 3800 cases going in and that was at the end of the third wave, the third wave was seeing almost 10 000 cases going in a week.

I would really like to know the number of people that are in hospital because of covid, vs the number of people in hospital that tested positive but are there for entirely different reasons (which seems to be a fairly high number according to reports).

That's basically the reason I am looking at ICU patients rather than overall hospital admissions.

I think it's also a little early to be looking at deaths but if we compare deaths at this number of daily cases to the beginning of previous waves there is a pretty stark difference.

old.png
 

Paulsie

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Apr 6, 2020
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I would really like to know the number of people that are in hospital because of covid, vs the number of people in hospital that tested positive but are there for entirely different reasons (which seems to be a fairly high number according to reports).

That's basically the reason I am looking at ICU patients rather than overall hospital admissions.

I think it's also a little early to be looking at deaths but if we compare deaths at this number of daily cases to the beginning of previous waves there is a pretty stark difference.

View attachment 1208970
Based on that one PTA hospital report I posted last week, around 70% of ICU covid cases is due to other reasons for admission.
 

Lupus

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You're joking. Wait two weeks! The bodies are going to be lining the streets! :(

Do you realise India ran out of cremation space? They're sending the bodies to the moon now! :eek:
Nah man, they piled the bodies under the first stage rocket booster, that thing would toast a marshmallow from 10km away, now imagine what a boost a couple hundred bodies would make the engine, especially if they've eaten spicey foods.
 

Paulsie

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In case I missed it, has there been an indication of the % of the new cases being omicron, vs delta?
We need to re look at our covid screening policy at work as omicron seems to have different set of symptoms
 

tetrasect

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Aug 22, 2009
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In case I missed it, has there been an indication of the % of the new cases being omicron, vs delta?
We need to re look at our covid screening policy at work as omicron seems to have different set of symptoms

Unfortunately this only goes up to the 29th of November, sure it has taken over almost completely since then.
Also, not sure how they get to this graph and how accurate this is.

omi.png

Source: https://nextstrain.org/ncov/gisaid/africa?f_country=South Africa
 

flytek

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Jul 22, 2019
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I would really like to know the number of people that are in hospital because of covid, vs the number of people in hospital that tested positive but are there for entirely different reasons (which seems to be a fairly high number according to reports).

That's basically the reason I am looking at ICU patients rather than overall hospital admissions.

I think it's also a little early to be looking at deaths but if we compare deaths at this number of daily cases to the beginning of previous waves there is a pretty stark difference.

View attachment 1208970
Careful, talk like this will get you labelled an anti-vax conspiracy nutjob!
 

Geoff.D

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Aug 4, 2005
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25,438
I would really like to know the number of people that are in hospital because of covid, vs the number of people in hospital that tested positive but are there for entirely different reasons (which seems to be a fairly high number according to reports).

That's basically the reason I am looking at ICU patients rather than overall hospital admissions.

I think it's also a little early to be looking at deaths but if we compare deaths at this number of daily cases to the beginning of previous waves there is a pretty stark difference.

View attachment 1208970
Many appeals for a more detailed breakdown of hospitalisations have fallen on deaf ears so far.

It is clear that the NICD DOES collect and analyse the data more deeply but has not made much public so far.

Omicron seems to have opened the door a sliver.
 
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