South African Covid-19 News and Discussions

[CataclysmZA]

Seeing as the NICD hasn't updated yet they are either taking the day off today, or President Ramaphosa will announce the new tally this afternoon.

I expect we'll be at around 300 cases, with more than 9000 tests done so far.



Our trend line is interesting. Most countries will see jumps of 50% or more per day for longer than a month, and then scale back to 25% increases and eventually 15% or thereabouts each day. It's no longer an exponential trend, but likely one affected by the buffer of testing capacity. Here's what that looks like over time.



This is our own trend so far. 50% ramp-ups every day and a slow arresting of numbers around 61 confirmed cases. Assuming there's a backlog and we only get to increase capacity by 5000 tests each week, this trend is likely to stay. We'll see around 20-25% of new cases each day, but the actual viral spread is twice that number in half the time.



At 25% increase each day from this point on, we'll still hit around 32,526 cases by 13 April 2020. Taking the global mortality average at 4.3%, deaths will be at 1399. A 10% death rate (more realistically given our situation), we'd be at 3253 dead by that point, and 12,505 people in hospital.

How long to infect 70% of South Africans? 70 days. 14 May 2020.

 

[yebocan]

Seeing as the NICD hasn't updated yet they are either taking the day off today, or President Ramaphosa will announce the new tally this afternoon.

I expect we'll be at around 300 cases, with more than 9000 tests done so far.

View attachment 804725

Our trend line is interesting. Most countries will see jumps of 50% or more per day for longer than a month, and then scale back to 25% increases and eventually 15% or thereabouts each day. It's no longer an exponential trend, but likely one affected by the buffer of testing capacity. Here's what that looks like over time.

View attachment 804727

This is our own trend so far. 50% ramp-ups every day and a slow arresting of numbers around 61 confirmed cases. Assuming there's a backlog and we only get to increase capacity by 5000 tests each week, this trend is likely to stay. We'll see around 20-25% of new cases each day, but the actual viral spread is twice that number in half the time.

View attachment 804731

At 25% increase each day from this point on, we'll still hit around 32,526 cases by 13 April 2020. Taking the global mortality average at 4.3%, deaths will be at 1399. A 10% death rate (more realistically given our situation), we'd be at 3253 dead by that point, and 12,505 people in hospital.

How long to infect 70% of South Africans? 70 days. 14 May 2020.

--scary ass ****, guess buckle up -- the ride has not even started yet.

 

[Polymathic]

Seeing as the NICD hasn't updated yet they are either taking the day off today, or President Ramaphosa will announce the new tally this afternoon.

I expect we'll be at around 300 cases, with more than 9000 tests done so far.

View attachment 804725

Our trend line is interesting. Most countries will see jumps of 50% or more per day for longer than a month, and then scale back to 25% increases and eventually 15% or thereabouts each day. It's no longer an exponential trend, but likely one affected by the buffer of testing capacity. Here's what that looks like over time.

View attachment 804727

This is our own trend so far. 50% ramp-ups every day and a slow arresting of numbers around 61 confirmed cases. Assuming there's a backlog and we only get to increase capacity by 5000 tests each week, this trend is likely to stay. We'll see around 20-25% of new cases each day, but the actual viral spread is twice that number in half the time.

View attachment 804731

At 25% increase each day from this point on, we'll still hit around 32,526 cases by 13 April 2020. Taking the global mortality average at 4.3%, deaths will be at 1399. A 10% death rate (more realistically given our situation), we'd be at 3253 dead by that point, and 12,505 people in hospital.

How long to infect 70% of South Africans? 70 days. 14 May 2020.

I think it's going to be more like 350, I'm working on the theory that yesterday was under counted so either the shortfall would be made up today or tomorrow with a 450 total cases or Tuesday 580 total cases.

If it is actually 300 then it may be a sign that the virus is coming under control.

 

[semaphore]

If it is actually 300 then it may be a sign that the virus is coming under control.

No it’s not, we are not doing wide community testing. Our numbers are way above what’s been communicated already.

 

[4cer]

No it’s not, we are not doing wide community testing. Our numbers are way above what’s been communicated already.

All countries think they are under counting, my family in the UK, they won't test if they haven't traveled and aren't high risk, same as here. Looking at Europe, I am not sure how they control it, these are the planes currently in the air on a Sunday:


also, we have to be glad it still reasonably warm here, In winter the lungs are more susceptible to infection due to the cold air

 

[CataclysmZA]

If it is actually 300 then it may be a sign that the virus is coming under control.

Actually it's too early to see the effects of our lockdowns and social distancing this early. Give it three weeks.

 

[braailekker11]

Seeing as the NICD hasn't updated yet they are either taking the day off today, or President Ramaphosa will announce the new tally this afternoon.

I expect we'll be at around 300 cases, with more than 9000 tests done so far.

View attachment 804725

Our trend line is interesting. Most countries will see jumps of 50% or more per day for longer than a month, and then scale back to 25% increases and eventually 15% or thereabouts each day. It's no longer an exponential trend, but likely one affected by the buffer of testing capacity. Here's what that looks like over time.

View attachment 804727

This is our own trend so far. 50% ramp-ups every day and a slow arresting of numbers around 61 confirmed cases. Assuming there's a backlog and we only get to increase capacity by 5000 tests each week, this trend is likely to stay. We'll see around 20-25% of new cases each day, but the actual viral spread is twice that number in half the time.

View attachment 804731

At 25% increase each day from this point on, we'll still hit around 32,526 cases by 13 April 2020. Taking the global mortality average at 4.3%, deaths will be at 1399. A 10% death rate (more realistically given our situation), we'd be at 3253 dead by that point, and 12,505 people in hospital.

How long to infect 70% of South Africans? 70 days. 14 May 2020.

Jesus. We won't be able to cope with that amount. Damn. Why eating wild bats of all things?

 

[nivek]

Jesus. We won't be able to cope with that amount. Damn. Why eating wild bats of all things?

Eating wild bats is only a small part of the problem, Communist China not containing, lying, deceiving their own people and the rest of the world is mostly to blame
People can blame Trump, Boris, Cyril and every other world leader for the way they reacted but at the end of the day nothing was going to stop the mega ****ing mess China created

 

[braailekker11]

Eating wild bats is only a small part of the problem, Communist China not containing, lying, deceiving their own people and the rest of the world is mostly to blame
People can blame Trump, Boris, Cyril and every other world leader for the way they reacted but at the end of the day nothing was going to stop the mega ****ing mess China created

Yeah eish. No point in crying over spilled over milk. What's so infuriating about this is that China never learned anything from SARS outbreak back in 2003/4. Wet markets have no place in this modern world. China should'nt get away with this. Furry bats FFS

 

[zophas]

Do people still think you are being sprayed with hand sanitizer when you go into a store? The first few times I went it did feel and smell like that, but now I think it's just plain water. Greed and deceit is gonna get us all.

 

[IdlePhaedrus]

these are the planes currently in the air on a Sunday

Spoke to a mate of mine who flew into Portugal from Hong Kong the day before yesterday. He's been in China since last year.

He was surprised that he was being treated a like leper on arrival by the locals. You really gotta wonder about some folks.

I was surprised he actually got in in the first instance given that Portugal is not his place of residence.

Boggles the mind.

 

[nivek]

Yeah eish. No point in crying over spilled over milk. What's so infuriating about this is that China never learned anything from SARS outbreak back in 2003/4. Wet markets have no place in this modern world. China should'nt get away with this. Furry bats FFS

YIP!
No point in crying over spilled milk indeed but while millions around the globe will be losing their jobs over the next few months, companies closing, millions dying, its worth remembering that all of this could've been stopped if China had acted on the warnings from their doctors instead of censoring them

China should be made to pay reparations to every country on this planet

 

[braailekker11]

YIP!
No point in crying over spilled milk indeed but while millions around the globe will be losing their jobs over the next few months, companies closing, millions dying, its worth remembering that all of this could've been stopped if China had acted on the warnings from their doctors instead of censoring them

China should be made to pay reparations to every country on this planet

Trump Administration, Boris and Co, EU leaders and WHO should pay for putting all of us in this nasty mess.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1241077097080197121

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1241405837941157888

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1241355290852786181

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1241407062837469191

 

[Milano]

YIP!
No point in crying over spilled milk indeed but while millions around the globe will be losing their jobs over the next few months, companies closing, millions dying, its worth remembering that all of this could've been stopped if China had acted on the warnings from their doctors instead of censoring them

China should be made to pay reparations to every country on this planet

China does not owe you or anyone anything. Stop being a big baby.

 

[semaphore]

China does not owe you or anyone anything. Stop being a big baby.

Are you part of the bioengineered camp?

 

[nivek]

China does not owe you or anyone anything. Stop being a big baby.

So when a million South Africans are dead and our economy is dead too we'll just shrug it off, it's all good.

 

[Milano]

Are you part of the bioengineered camp?

That could go either way.

Just don't be one of those people always looking for handouts.

 

[Milano]

So when a million South Africans are dead and our economy is dead too we'll just shrug it off, it's all good.

I won't be looking for a handout from China if that is what you are asking.

 

[Pablo37]

Not sure how long Emirates will maintain flights to Cape Town as passenger numbers decline.

Here's the answer to your question... ALL passenger flights to be suspended, not just Cape Town

 

[ForceFate]

Its way off topic so I won't respond again, if you want you can Google retail economics or start a thread somewhere else and ask someone more knowledgeable than myself. It is a pretty big subject, and has no place here.

Save to say this, as there are some basics.

Spars can be big or small, and are often closer than your supermarket (like a garage convenience store).

Some Spars open earlier and close later than supermarkets.

Quality can be good or bad, depending on franchise owner, staff and local suppliers.

What people are willing to pay will largely be a toss up between quality and convenience.

Sometimes you will pay as much or more than Woolworths for a particular item.

I wasn't trying to derail thread. I was genuinely curious since all Spar stores within 10km radius of where I live open and close at the same time as retailers like PnP/Checkers (ie. 7/8am depending on location). Anyway... Moving on...