South African Covid-19 News and Discussions

[Willie Trombone]

If you were born before 1973 you would not have received the vaccine, either way less people to vaccinate.

I got a second BCG from BA Travel clinic some years back before an international trip.

 

[Willie Trombone]

I don't think any governments have asked actuaries for advice on the epidemic.

What makes you think this? Orgs like JHU among others hire actuaries. Plenty of actuaries work in international development.

 

[Willie Trombone]

This is what happens in a well run DA run municipality;

PICS | Stellenbosch gets a scrub as coronavirus cases at 16

Benches, pavements and dustbins were washed.

www.news24.com

So was it only Stellenbosch, where the ultra wealthy live? Or did all DA municipalities get the same treatment?

 

[Lupus]

So was it only Stellenbosch, where the ultra wealthy live? Or did all DA municipalities get the same treatment?

It was also done in the Johannesburg CBD which isn't even DA anymore.

 

[Gordon_R]

What makes you think this? Orgs like JHU among others hire actuaries. Plenty of actuaries work in international development.

I know many actuaries, and the question has got mangled. Epidemiologists and demographers (a hybrid statistician or actuary) are the ones giving the advice, and I know some of them too.

 

[Willie Trombone]

I know many actuaries, and the question has got mangled. Epidemiologists and demographers (a hybrid statistician or actuary) are the ones giving the advice, and I know some of them too.

We all know a few acturies, epidemiologists and demographers, what I'm asking you for is what you're basing your opinion that actuaries aren't involved with providing governments with data. I would think they're a pretty busy bunch right now.

Why actuaries are essential to government - Civil Service

The Civil Service does the practical and administrative work of government. More than half of all civil servants provide services direct to the public.

civilservice.blog.gov.uk

 

[Gordon_R]

We all know a few acturies, epidemiologists and demographers, what I'm asking you for is what you're basing your opinion that actuaries aren't involved with providing governments with data. I would think they're a pretty busy bunch right now.

Why actuaries are essential to government - Civil Service

The Civil Service does the practical and administrative work of government. More than half of all civil servants provide services direct to the public.

civilservice.blog.gov.uk

I never said that. I was responding to an off the cuff comment, in response to an earlier comment. This is how threads get derailed...

And yes I know more actuaries than you, so there! /sarcasm

 

[Cage Rattler]

Actuaries particularly involved in HIV modelling in SA, esp at UCT. In the nineties I was involved in the development of first AIDS model for SA. No reason to believe they are not involved with modelling the coronavirus, etc.

 

[saffakanera]

I don't think any governments have asked actuaries for advice on the epidemic. In fact quite the opposite IMO (both good and bad sources).

As far as I can tell they're consulting with champagne revolutionaries.

 

[saffakanera]

Actuaries particularly involved in HIV modelling in SA, esp at UCT. In the nineties I was involved in the development of first AIDS model for SA. No reason to believe they are not involved with modelling the coronavirus, etc.

Psssshhh...you probably handled tape backups and reset passwords.

 

[Willie Trombone]

I never said that. I was responding to an off the cuff comment, in response to an earlier comment. This is how threads get derailed...

So you do think Actuaries are involved? I'm lost. No need to discuss it further then. Was hoping for some inside info or something.

 

[Craig_]

So was it only Stellenbosch, where the ultra wealthy live? Or did all DA municipalities get the same treatment?

Most people in stellenbosch are dirt poor, and that second pic, that's close to the taxi rank, it always smells like piss around there so that was anyway in dire need of a clean up. Not only for corona.

 

[Gordon_R]

Actuaries particularly involved in HIV modelling in SA, esp at UCT. In the nineties I was involved in the development of first AIDS model for SA. No reason to believe they are not involved with modelling the coronavirus, etc.

Yes, I know most of them, and to repeat, that's not what I meant.

P.S. Aids modelling goes back to the 1980s, and I was working then.

Edit: They were quoted in the news this week:

CORONAVIRUS: UK death rate report highlights urgency of aggressive, drastic measures to fight Covid-19

Researchers in the UK have extrapolated Covid-19 data, mainly from the Wuhan experience, to make predictions about death rates which highlight the urgency of implementing aggressive suppression measures to drastically reduce physical contact and also the rollout of extensive tracking and testing.

www.dailymaverick.co.za

Professor Rob Dorrington, emeritus professor at the same centre, also cautioned that, as the authors of the report had themselves acknowledged, their models were not based on any information about the countries concerned, other than the size and age distribution of the populations.

“Thus, for South Africa, importantly, the estimates do not take into account differences in comorbidities (in particular HIV/AIDS and TB, not to mention hypertension and diabetes), or in the socio-economic conditions (particularly as they might affect the spread and management of the epidemic) from the data on which their model was based.”

So, effectively there are no SA specific data, so there cannot be any SA specific models (yet).

 

[Willie Trombone]

Actuaries particularly involved in HIV modelling in SA, esp at UCT. In the nineties I was involved in the development of first AIDS model for SA. No reason to believe they are not involved with modelling the coronavirus, etc.

Stu, that you?

 

[Willie Trombone]

Most people in stellenbosch are dirt poor, and that second pic, that's close to the taxi rank, it always smells like piss around there so that was anyway in dire need of a clean up. Not only for corona.

Most people everywhere in SA are dirt poor, unless you know of some enclave where rich people live in isolation. I don't think I said everyone in Stellies was wealthy. What I'm suggesting is that people with money have sway. Would you disagree?

 

[Craig_]

Most people everywhere in SA are dirt poor, unless you know of some enclave where rich people live in isolation. I don't think I said everyone in Stellies was wealthy. What I'm suggesting is that people with money have sway. Would you disagree?

Don't disagree at all, you just worded that is as if it defines the town, it's not a town of rich people. It has a few ultra rich people though. They are a small minority.

 

[Geoff.D]

Well, the clean up is long overdue. Pity, it took a crisis like this to kick the Councils into action. Still, I think we should all be applauding those Councils that are doing cleans ups and name and shame that are not.

 

[Willie Trombone]

Don't disagree at all, you just worded that is as if it defines the town, it's not a town of rich people. It has a few ultra rich people though. They are a small minority though.

Minorities with money often make things happen when they open their mouths. Some like to call them the Stellenbosch Mafia. It's unfortunately the way things work in the world. Note, I'm not blaming anybody specifically for this, but it's unfortunate.
Agree that the cleanup is long overdue. Just a pity we're not likely to see anything in my neck of the woods. As little as possible seems to be the mantra of our municipalities in the EC. It's one of the reasons people here often think the grass is greener in the Western Cape.

 

[Sinbad]

NICD have relaxed the testing guidelines

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1246758804672466945

Now we'll start with some numbers.

 

[harties]

So you do think Actuaries are involved? I'm lost. No need to discuss it further then. Was hoping for some inside info or something.

Why would we want to involve Actuaries? Most of actuarial work is based off on sufficient historical data - which is quite lacking at the moment. It would be guess work for them aka actuarial judgment. Rather leave it to specialists/experts such as an epidemiologist.