South African Covid-19 News and Discussions

Status
Not open for further replies.

Eric

Honorary Master
Joined
Jul 18, 2008
Messages
47,543
I don't think any governments have asked actuaries for advice on the epidemic.
What makes you think this? Orgs like JHU among others hire actuaries. Plenty of actuaries work in international development.
 

Gordon_R

Honorary Master
Joined
Jul 5, 2009
Messages
13,479
What makes you think this? Orgs like JHU among others hire actuaries. Plenty of actuaries work in international development.
I know many actuaries, and the question has got mangled. Epidemiologists and demographers (a hybrid statistician or actuary) are the ones giving the advice, and I know some of them too.
 

Eric

Honorary Master
Joined
Jul 18, 2008
Messages
47,543
I know many actuaries, and the question has got mangled. Epidemiologists and demographers (a hybrid statistician or actuary) are the ones giving the advice, and I know some of them too.
We all know a few acturies, epidemiologists and demographers, what I'm asking you for is what you're basing your opinion that actuaries aren't involved with providing governments with data. I would think they're a pretty busy bunch right now.
 

Gordon_R

Honorary Master
Joined
Jul 5, 2009
Messages
13,479
We all know a few acturies, epidemiologists and demographers, what I'm asking you for is what you're basing your opinion that actuaries aren't involved with providing governments with data. I would think they're a pretty busy bunch right now.
I never said that. I was responding to an off the cuff comment, in response to an earlier comment. This is how threads get derailed...

And yes I know more actuaries than you, so there! /sarcasm
 

Cage Rattler

Well-Known Member
Joined
Nov 29, 2005
Messages
342
Actuaries particularly involved in HIV modelling in SA, esp at UCT. In the nineties I was involved in the development of first AIDS model for SA. No reason to believe they are not involved with modelling the coronavirus, etc.
 

saffakanera

Expert Member
Joined
Sep 25, 2006
Messages
4,370
Actuaries particularly involved in HIV modelling in SA, esp at UCT. In the nineties I was involved in the development of first AIDS model for SA. No reason to believe they are not involved with modelling the coronavirus, etc.
Psssshhh...you probably handled tape backups and reset passwords.
 

Eric

Honorary Master
Joined
Jul 18, 2008
Messages
47,543
I never said that. I was responding to an off the cuff comment, in response to an earlier comment. This is how threads get derailed...
So you do think Actuaries are involved? I'm lost. No need to discuss it further then. Was hoping for some inside info or something.
 

Craig

Honorary Master
Joined
Feb 22, 2016
Messages
20,737
So was it only Stellenbosch, where the ultra wealthy live? Or did all DA municipalities get the same treatment?
Most people in stellenbosch are dirt poor, and that second pic, that's close to the taxi rank, it always smells like piss around there so that was anyway in dire need of a clean up. Not only for corona.
 

Gordon_R

Honorary Master
Joined
Jul 5, 2009
Messages
13,479
Actuaries particularly involved in HIV modelling in SA, esp at UCT. In the nineties I was involved in the development of first AIDS model for SA. No reason to believe they are not involved with modelling the coronavirus, etc.
Yes, I know most of them, and to repeat, that's not what I meant.

P.S. Aids modelling goes back to the 1980s, and I was working then.

Edit: They were quoted in the news this week:
Professor Rob Dorrington, emeritus professor at the same centre, also cautioned that, as the authors of the report had themselves acknowledged, their models were not based on any information about the countries concerned, other than the size and age distribution of the populations.

“Thus, for South Africa, importantly, the estimates do not take into account differences in comorbidities (in particular HIV/AIDS and TB, not to mention hypertension and diabetes), or in the socio-economic conditions (particularly as they might affect the spread and management of the epidemic) from the data on which their model was based.”
So, effectively there are no SA specific data, so there cannot be any SA specific models (yet).
 
Last edited:

Eric

Honorary Master
Joined
Jul 18, 2008
Messages
47,543
Actuaries particularly involved in HIV modelling in SA, esp at UCT. In the nineties I was involved in the development of first AIDS model for SA. No reason to believe they are not involved with modelling the coronavirus, etc.
Stu, that you? :p
 

Eric

Honorary Master
Joined
Jul 18, 2008
Messages
47,543
Most people in stellenbosch are dirt poor, and that second pic, that's close to the taxi rank, it always smells like piss around there so that was anyway in dire need of a clean up. Not only for corona.
Most people everywhere in SA are dirt poor, unless you know of some enclave where rich people live in isolation. I don't think I said everyone in Stellies was wealthy. What I'm suggesting is that people with money have sway. Would you disagree?
 

Craig

Honorary Master
Joined
Feb 22, 2016
Messages
20,737
Most people everywhere in SA are dirt poor, unless you know of some enclave where rich people live in isolation. I don't think I said everyone in Stellies was wealthy. What I'm suggesting is that people with money have sway. Would you disagree?
Don't disagree at all, you just worded that is as if it defines the town, it's not a town of rich people. It has a few ultra rich people though. They are a small minority.
 
Last edited:

Geoff.D

Honorary Master
Joined
Aug 4, 2005
Messages
16,556
Well, the clean up is long overdue. Pity, it took a crisis like this to kick the Councils into action. Still, I think we should all be applauding those Councils that are doing cleans ups and name and shame that are not.
 

Eric

Honorary Master
Joined
Jul 18, 2008
Messages
47,543
Don't disagree at all, you just worded that is as if it defines the town, it's not a town of rich people. It has a few ultra rich people though. They are a small minority though.
Minorities with money often make things happen when they open their mouths. Some like to call them the Stellenbosch Mafia. It's unfortunately the way things work in the world. Note, I'm not blaming anybody specifically for this, but it's unfortunate.
Agree that the cleanup is long overdue. Just a pity we're not likely to see anything in my neck of the woods. As little as possible seems to be the mantra of our municipalities in the EC. It's one of the reasons people here often think the grass is greener in the Western Cape.
 

harties

Well-Known Member
Joined
Jun 13, 2012
Messages
238
So you do think Actuaries are involved? I'm lost. No need to discuss it further then. Was hoping for some inside info or something.
Why would we want to involve Actuaries? Most of actuarial work is based off on sufficient historical data - which is quite lacking at the moment. It would be guess work for them aka actuarial judgment. Rather leave it to specialists/experts such as an epidemiologist.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top