South African Covid-19 News and Discussions

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Grant

Grant

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Chris_the_Brit said:
Correct. I saw a figure that 66 percent on ventilators die.
Click to expand...
ppl going onto mechanical ventilation have to be placed in an induced coma.
the 2 major risks of ventilation are pneumonia and infection.
an infection can result in sepsis

amongst other things:
when in an induced coma, a patient has to have a feeding tube inserted.
urinary catheterisation has to be done.
a liquids drip has to be commenced
these all exponentially increase exposure to infections
it is complicated and risky

a patient from a car accident would more often have a better prognosis than a patient with an already systemically compromised system.
 
Kosmik

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Grant said:
ppl going onto mechanical ventilation have to be placed in an induced coma.
the 2 major risks of ventilation are pneumonia and infection.
an infection can result in sepsis
Click to expand...

Never heard about the coma part?
 
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zmme

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Gordon_R

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Informative article on UK trends in declining new cases, and delays before death rates stabilise after lockdown:
www.bbc.com

Coronavirus: When will we know if the UK lockdown is working?

Almost two weeks after Britons were confined to their homes, is the coronavirus curve flattening?
www.bbc.com

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_111626746_analysis_cases_5_apr_trendlabel-nc.png


_111626745_analysis_deaths_5_apr_trendlabel-nc.png
 
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Gordon_R

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Turbomouse said:
So, the lockdown has not really had an effect?
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The lockdown stopped the exponential growth of new infections. The delayed trend of positive test results, shows previously infected but undiagnosed people. The deaths represent mostly people who were infected before the lockdown. Read the article and graphs again carefully.

Oops, I should have posted the article in the global thread. Nevermind...
 
DeeinSouthAfrica

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Everybody so happy that we're at the halfway point of the lockdown, and yet the building continues on treatment centres in parking lots (Tygerberg) and inside Mpumalanga game reserves.
I think we might only be at the 20% point of lockdown - only nobody's telling us yet.
 
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DeeinSouthAfrica said:
Everybody so happy that we're at the halfway point of the lockdown, and yet the building continues on treatment centres in parking lots (Tygerberg) and inside Mpumalanga game reserves.
I think we might only be at the 20% point of lockdown - only nobody's telling us yet.
Click to expand...

It will all depend on the number of new infections over time but I reckon they will extend the lock down but may ease some of the restrictions. As much as I am not a fan of the ANC, even they can see the hurt it does the economy (and ultimately their pockets).

What is 'interesting' is the almost linear growth (vs exponential) of new cases / deaths in SA. Fudging with number? Testing not done? Labs taking to long? Huge backlog of tests? Saffers are just tough nuts? :unsure:
 
Gordon_R

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Jase said:
It will all depend on the number of new infections over time but I reckon they will extend the lock down but may ease some of the restrictions. As much as I am not a fan of the ANC, even they can see the hurt it does the economy (and ultimately their pockets).

What is 'interesting' is the almost linear growth (vs exponential) of new cases / deaths in SA. Fudging with number? Testing not done? Labs taking to long? Huge backlog of tests? Saffers are just tough nuts? :unsure:
Click to expand...

I have stated repeatedly that the spread of the epidemic in SA seems to have been unique. All of the initial cases were travel related, and were contained by the contract tracking system, and self-quarantine. The general spread seems to have been (mostly) contained by self-isolation and lockdown. Both of these are consistent with all of the models that I have seen.

Some people seem very reluctant to believe that we (as a country) may have done something right (for a change), and also been very lucky in terms of our geographic isolation (effectively only connected by air travel).

Edit: Look at the UK graphs I posted above, and divide all of the numbers by 50 or 100 times less infections, to get our likely trends (we have similar lockdown dates). See: https://mybroadband.co.za/forum/thr...-virus-news-and-updates.1073583/post-25224187
 
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Jase

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Gordon_R said:
I have stated repeatedly that the spread of the epidemic in SA seems to have been unique. All of the initial cases were travel related, and were contained by the contract tracking system, and self-quarantine. The general spread seems to have been (mostly) contained by self-isolation and lockdown. Both of these are consistent with all of the models that I have seen.

Some people seem very reluctant to believe that we (as a country) may have done something right (for a change), and also been very lucky in terms of our geographic isolation (effectively only connected by air travel).
Click to expand...
I sure hope this is the case as it would spell absolute disaster for all of us and even those who think their employment is secure as they are able to work remotely will be affected long term if our economy goes tits up.
 
Gordon_R

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Sinbad said:
This BCG thing is interesting. I wonder if there's actual causation or it's just a freak of correlation
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Not enough numbers IMO, since each country is at different stages of the epidemic, and the testing data are completely unknown relative to the underlying infection rate. The actual mortality rate will only be known when we have universal antibody testing, which is many months away.
 
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