South African Covid-19 News and Discussions

[Inn3rs3lf]

64K tests done in how many weeks now? This is rather pathetic. I don't even think our testing stations are being overburdened.

 

[Gordon_R]

Increase of 96... 5 more deaths

The majority of those new positive tests were from the St Augustine Hospital outbreak. It is geographically contained, and not a widespread trend. See:

Covid-19: 4 die from virus at St Augustine's Hospital, Durban, as 47 staffers test positive

Netcare is investigating a Covid-19 outbreak at St Augustine's Hospital in KwaZulu-Natal where 47 staff members tested positive and measures have been put in place to contain the outbreak.

www.news24.com

 

[wingnut771]

The majority of those new positive tests were from the St Augustine Hospital outbreak. It is geographically contained, and not a widespread trend. See:

Covid-19: 4 die from virus at St Augustine's Hospital, Durban, as 47 staffers test positive

Netcare is investigating a Covid-19 outbreak at St Augustine's Hospital in KwaZulu-Natal where 47 staff members tested positive and measures have been put in place to contain the outbreak.

www.news24.com

i wonder who was patient zero in their case.

 

[Gordon_R]

i wonder who was patient zero in their case.

That is a subject of intense investigation. Since viral infections do not come with a 'timestamp', this may be difficult to determine. Staff records and contact tracing within the hospital might provide some clues.

Patient zero is an interesting question, but not especially important, since no one individual is to blame. This was a complete breakdown in protocols...

 

[Paulsie]

CORONAVIRUS: Top health adviser says SA’s coronavirus testing approach was initially too limited

The chair of South Africa’s Covid-19 ministerial advisory committee, Professor Salim Abdool Karim, has acknowledged that the country’s initial approach to coronavirus testing may have been too restrictive. Abdool Karim made the comments during a Daily Maverick webinar on Wednesday, in which he...

www.dailymaverick.co.za

I think the above gives a very good explanation of our low testing. Basically confirms that the numbers of new cases we are seeing today are infections from 2 weeks ago (prior to lockdown)

 

[Solarion]

Covid relief corruption concerns

With the KZN Social Development Department forking out R22 million for blankets as part of Covid-19 emergency measures, there is growing concern that the project is being used for self-enrichment by using emergency procurement procedures, and the DA is calling for an investigation into the matter.

It has emerged that the department is sourcing blankets, which cost between R120 and R150 each, from service providers at close to R600 each, with some companies having invoiced the department for more than R6 million.

“Who are they buying the blankets for because even middle class people can’t afford to buy a R600 blanket under the current economic circumstances,” DA social development provincial spokesperson Elama Rabe said.

Sources within the department, concerned about the large volumes being purchased, have also claimed that some of the directors of the companies procuring the items for the department have links with senior officials at the department.

Full Article

 

[Mirai]

CORONAVIRUS: Top health adviser says SA’s coronavirus testing approach was initially too limited

The chair of South Africa’s Covid-19 ministerial advisory committee, Professor Salim Abdool Karim, has acknowledged that the country’s initial approach to coronavirus testing may have been too restrictive. Abdool Karim made the comments during a Daily Maverick webinar on Wednesday, in which he...

www.dailymaverick.co.za

I think the above gives a very good explanation of our low testing. Basically confirms that the numbers of new cases we are seeing today are infections from 2 weeks ago (prior to lockdown)

He's neither here nor there.

We should have relaxed criteria earlier...and so tested more people, but we still struggle to get reagents because the whole world wants them. Something which people on this forum miss constantly. They think it's like going on ebay and buying reagent and it's available and DHL brings it in in 2 days.
We ramp up testing but our laboratories can't cope.

The two week period. The median = half people become symptomatic at day 5 of the infection. Usually 5 days after that they deteriorate terribly = viral pneumonia with extreme shortness of breath. These people present to health care REGARDLESS OF THEIR TESTING STATUS OR NOT.

And finally he says, we did better than many others. I agree with that. The Dutch and Swedish approach would have been suicidal.

Closing borders was good. Quarantine for ALL arrivals should have been instituted earlier. Why cinemas still ran till 2 days before lockdown (showing foreign films) which don't benefit our GDP was beyond me.

 

[krycor]

Exactly

View attachment 815027

So glad I’m not the one making this decision.. no matter what chosen people won’t be happy..

 

[Gordon_R]

So glad I’m not the one making this decision.. no matter what chosen people won’t be happy..

IMO given our complex demographics, we are in this for the long haul. Small-scale outbreaks are likely to occur for many months, and we may need repeated and selective enforcement of the regulations at district level, to contain the spread.

The fear in some countries has been that of overwhelming hospital facilities. In SA we do not have that problem, in fact many wards are standing empty. We are fortunate that geographical isolation and early social isolation have limited the number of active infections, and flattened the exponential stage of the epidemic.

Countries facing the worst outbreaks did not have the option to do contact tracing, for two reasons: The overwhelming number of new cases, and the limited testing capacity.

IMO the optimum strategy would be to selectively remove restrictions, allow some economic activity to resume, and aggressively stamp down on outbreaks (through contact tracing). There will inevitably be further deaths, since it is impossible to reduce the infection to zero without killing the economy and starving the population, and impossible to track down every infection given the current tools.

This does not mean we would have 'failed', just that we have to adjust to living with a new reality, and make the best of the situation we find ourselves in (which is better in some ways than other countries).

 

[Sl8er]

Full Article

Just kidding:

 

[Drifter]

I agree with some of you statements @Gordon_R, BUT, I do think CR is going to extend the LD.

 

[Polymathic]

IMO given our complex demographics, we are in this for the long haul. Small-scale outbreaks are likely to occur for many months, and we may need repeated and selective enforcement of the regulations at district level, to contain the spread.

The fear in some countries has been that of overwhelming hospital facilities. In SA we do not have that problem, in fact many wards are standing empty. We are fortunate that geographical isolation and early social isolation have limited the number of active infections, and flattened the exponential stage of the epidemic.

Countries facing the worst outbreaks did not have the option to do contact tracing, for two reasons: The overwhelming number of new cases, and the limited testing capacity.

IMO the optimum strategy would be to selectively remove restrictions, allow some economic activity to resume, and aggressively stamp down on outbreaks (through contact tracing). There will inevitably be further deaths, since it is impossible to reduce the infection to zero without killing the economy and starving the population, and impossible to track down every infection given the current tools.

This does not mean we would have 'failed', just that we have to adjust to living with a new reality, and make the best of the situation we find ourselves in (which is better in some ways than other countries).

Most countries are only going to come out of lockdown when there's a significant drop of active cases. Currently there are officially 1782 active case.

So if CR follows thier lead the lockdown isn't going to end until the numbers drop below 1000 active cases.

 

[Drifter]

1845 confirmed active cases, death toll 18.

 

[Fox1]

Most countries are only going to come out of lockdown when there's a significant drop of active cases. Currently there are officially 1782 active case.

So if CR follows thier lead the lockdown isn't going to end until the numbers drop below 1000 active cases.

But we have not as much numbers in hospitals as those other countries. At least that's what's told though the numbers are blipping which makes analysing the data harder.

 

[L-Dog]

Are the recovered case's info accurate? If so you have covid do you keep testing till you get a negatiewe or wait for 2 to 3 week's then test again?

 

[3GLee]

Most countries are only going to come out of lockdown when there's a significant drop of active cases. Currently there are officially 1782 active case.

So if CR follows thier lead the lockdown isn't going to end until the numbers drop below 1000 active cases.

Well it's simple, just stop testing or avoid testing a wide range of demographics - Oh we already doing that.

 

[Icemanbrfc]

People forget, that one of our biggest saves in all of this, is that this pandemic really kicked in after Summer.. Or at least after Nov/Dec when tourists would have flooded into the country. I am holding onto a glimmer of hope here.

 

[Polymathic]

Well it's simple, just stop testing or avoid testing a wide range of demographics - Oh we already doing that.

You expect government to magic into existence new testing kits? Far richer countries than South Africa are having trouble getting enough test kits and in many cases competing directly for the same test kits.

 

[Gordon_R]

I agree with some of you statements @Gordon_R, BUT, I do think CR is going to extend the LD.

Read what the experts are saying:

Ramaphosa to make ‘serious decisions’ about lockdown based on science, possible economic repercussions

President Cyril Ramaphosa has not yet taken a decision on whether the current lockdown will be extended, or whether a second lockdown is being considered.

www.news24.com

 

[Geoff.D]

Most countries are only going to come out of lockdown when there's a significant drop of active cases. Currently there are officially 1782 active case.

So if CR follows thier lead the lockdown isn't going to end until the numbers drop below 1000 active cases.

Our curve has to turn first before much of these debates are even relevant. And we still after 2 weeks don't know what is really going on in the country.