South African Covid-19 News and Discussions

[Gordon_R]

Most countries are only going to come out of lockdown when there's a significant drop of active cases. Currently there are officially 1782 active case.

So if CR follows thier lead the lockdown isn't going to end until the numbers drop below 1000 active cases.

I don't think the number of active cases in SA is at all meaningful. Half of them are asymptomatic, most are in self-isolation, and the statistics seem to be way behind on counting the number of recoveries. IMO the only meaningful figure is the number in ICU, which currently stands at 7 for SA.

See: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

 

[Lupus]

I don't think the number of active cases in SA is at all meaningful. Half of them are asymptomatic, most are in self-isolation, and the statistics seem to be way behind on counting the number of recoveries. IMO the only meaningful figure is the number in ICU, which currently stands at 7 for SA.

See: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

if that is even correct, as it seems to have been 7 for awhile, also it's 7 serious/critical not necessarily in ICU. What gets to me is we should be seeing more people in hospital, even with "unconfirmed" cases of upper respitarory issues if this was widespread. It's been over 10 days for the mass panic buying, it's hitting on two weeks of lockdown now.

 

[Icemanbrfc]

I don't think the number of active cases in SA is at all meaningful. Half of them are asymptomatic, most are in self-isolation, and the statistics seem to be way behind on counting the number of recoveries. IMO the only meaningful figure is the number in ICU, which currently stands at 7 for SA.

See: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Problem is that how soon do you end the lockdown? .. In my opinion, if the lockdown is ended, then the rules we are currently under, in terms of distancing etc needs to remain in place.

 

[Gordon_R]

if that is even correct, as it seems to have been 7 for awhile, also it's 7 serious/critical not necessarily in ICU. What gets to me is we should be seeing more people in hospital, even with "unconfirmed" cases of upper respitarory issues if this was widespread. It's been over 10 days for the mass panic buying, it's hitting on two weeks of lockdown now.

Perhaps the logical explanation is that the epidemic has been contained in SA. I know this is very hard for some people to accept, and a few are looking at alternative explanations for what is really a simple fact.

Problem is that how soon do you end the lockdown? .. In my opinion, if the lockdown is ended, then the rules we are currently under, in terms of distancing etc needs to remain in place.

Those distancing and hygiene rules will have to remain in place for many months...

 

[Lupus]

Perhaps the logical explanation is that the epidemic has been contained in SA. I know this is very hard for some people to accept, and a few are looking at alternative explanations for what is really a simple fact.



Those distancing and hygiene rules will have to remain in place for many months...

I'm hoping this is the case, or the people who've got it, are asymptomatic or just normal to mild symptoms as they think it's a cold.

 

[daveza]

Still wondering where we would be had we shut the borders before that flight from Italy was allowed to land at ORT.

 

[Icemanbrfc]

Perhaps the logical explanation is that the epidemic has been contained in SA. I know this is very hard for some people to accept, and a few are looking at alternative explanations for what is really a simple fact.



Those distancing and hygiene rules will have to remain in place for many months...

See Gordon that's the problem right there.. Hygiene should have been in place long before this virus came into effect. Most people do not practice good hygiene in the world, let alone this country.. Hopefully this is a wake up call, and people start to look at it, and remind themselves how quickly disease and viruses etc can spread if precautions are not taken

 

[zmme]

if that is even correct, as it seems to have been 7 for awhile, also it's 7 serious/critical not necessarily in ICU. What gets to me is we should be seeing more people in hospital, even with "unconfirmed" cases of upper respitarory issues if this was widespread. It's been over 10 days for the mass panic buying, it's hitting on two weeks of lockdown now.

Exactly where all the bodies that should be in hospital according to all the hysteria? Could it be that maybe just maybe it’s actually somewhat contained in SA? Oh but it’s the ANC government so it can’t be possible that they’ve done something right somewhat (sarcasm). Or maybe it could really be it’s not as lethal and people are either asymptomatic or experiencing mild symptoms.

 

[Mirai]

IMO given our complex demographics, we are in this for the long haul. Small-scale outbreaks are likely to occur for many months, and we may need repeated and selective enforcement of the regulations at district level, to contain the spread.

The fear in some countries has been that of overwhelming hospital facilities. In SA we do not have that problem, in fact many wards are standing empty. We are fortunate that geographical isolation and early social isolation have limited the number of active infections, and flattened the exponential stage of the epidemic.

Wards are empty in US as well. Shutting down elective cases and routine care has been quite common and medical practices are going for virtual consultations. HPCSA gave the go ahead for all doctors to do even first time patient consults via telephone or internet. The wards are empty all over the place with COVID_19 patient isolated in "infectious hospitals" whole hospitals which treat infectious diseases only or certain wards. I know in GSH and TBH they have designated certain wards to be used by COVID-19 patients while in others numbers of patients may be reduced - if elective stuff is being done less. Outpatient activities have been scaled back as far as I know, too.

So that is a non issue you should not use.

 

[Mirai]

What may be promising is that so far there seems to be no increase in risk for HIV patients. In fact some data from China about SARS show that people on HIV treatment may enjoy some protection.

 

[Gordon_R]

Wards are empty in US as well. Shutting down elective cases and routine care has been quite common and medical practices are going for virtual consultations. HPCSA gave the go ahead for all doctors to do even first time patient consults via telephone or internet. The wards are not empty all over the place with COVID_19 patient isolated in "infectious hospitals" whole hospitals which treat infectious diseases only or certain wards. I know in GSH and TBH they have designated certain wards to be used by COVID-19 patients while in others numbers of patients may be reduced - if elective stuff is being done less. Outpatient activities have been scaled back as far as I know, too.

So that is a non issue you should not use.

I'm pointing out that one of the reasons for the shutdown, to avoid overburdening the health system, turned out to be a non-issue. There are still future concerns, but that (alone) is no longer a valid reason to prolong the shutdown.

That is also a factor in quashing the conspiracy theories that there are 'hidden' cases waiting to overwhelm us. Its pretty hard to make any statement, without considering all the alternative arguments, and the fact that any words used can be misinterpreted...

 

[Mirai]

I'm pointing out that one of the reasons for the shutdown, to avoid overburdening the health system, turned out to be a non-issue. There are still future concerns, but that (alone) is no longer a valid reason to prolong the shutdown.

It is a valid issue. Because the shut down is limiting new infections.

That is also a factor in quashing the conspiracy theories that there are 'hidden' cases waiting to overwhelm us. Its pretty hard to make any statement, without considering all the alternative arguments, and the fact that any words used can be misinterpreted...

For me people with severe symptoms and those with pneumonia or worse, eg cytokine storm, but that happens later, will present regardless. They get so sick they call an ambulance or go to the local ER. The mild stuff - sore throat, terrible cough, muscle aches, and feeling just tired, those will stay at home.

 

[Gordon_R]

It is a valid issue. Because the shut down is limiting new infections.

I think we are talking in circles. If the number of new positive test cases rises, then some kind of shutdown will need to be re-imposed. The limited number of hospital facilities cannot be used to prolong the current shutdown FOREVER...

 

[Mirai]

I think we are talking in circles. If the number of new positive test cases rises, then some kind of shutdown will need to be re-imposed. The limited number of hospital facilities cannot be used to prolong the current shutdown FOREVER...

The lockdown is limiting the number of infections. SA has a shortage of beds, especially in state. The concern that hospitals will be flooded like in NYC is a concern because we have limited beds and staff. We also don't want to make our staff sick. We don't want to kill our older staff.

I don't think they were a non issue. SA acted quite decisively but the lockdwon was not for nothing.

 

[ponder]

1845 confirmed active cases, death toll 18.

95 recovered cases thus 1750 active

 

[Geoff.D]

So this is where so much blame has to be heaped on the WHO. The moment this whole thing arose in China, China should have out of its own enforced a travel ban. The WHO should have forced China to do so ij it failed to do anything out of its own.
The countries (all of them) should have enforced their own travel bans. That would have contained the virus.
And it is these things that should remain in place for at least 3 to 6 months.
If you want to travel, you have to agree to and pay for testing. At departure and on return.

If you can afford to travel, then you can afford the medical issues that go with travel whatever they are.

 

[Brian_G]

It is a valid issue. Because the shut down is limiting new infections.

I can't believe it's worked anywhere near well enough, there's just too many issues being reported and witnessed that says it couldn't have made this much difference. Certainly the poorer communities' lack of problems make no sense. Something else is going on, and, currently anyway, it really appears weird.

 

[Mirai]

I can't believe it's worked anywhere near well enough, there's just too many issues being reported and witnessed that says it couldn't have made this much difference. Certainly the poorer communities' lack of problems make no sense. Something else is going on, and, currently anyway, it really appears weird.

The poorer communities had less contact with the wealthy who are still more likely to be exposed and carrying the virus. SA had a small number of cases come in because unlike Italy and Spain the borders aren't porous, the population density is not as large and people don't work and travel cross border as much. All our cases came by plane and ship. Those who escaped quarantine were not many and of those not many had contact with the poor. Very few poor people traveled to China or Italy or UK.

Most of those who imported the disease into SA are wealthy. They did not mix with the poor at day hospitals when they got sick. They potentially exposed people in GP practices. They went about meeting with friends and family - people of similar wealth and markers for example racial profiles. They kept the disease more or less there. With lockdown those patients in those GP waiting rooms and their families and buddies could have gotten sick but were locked down and so isolated. They could have spread to domestic workers but the lockdown is limiting that and where some spread has occurred the domestic worker now has no need to use a taxi and so she is also isolating.
Every bit helps. And in the early stages of these infections small bits help a lot because if you stop one person transmitting the disease early on you prevent a hundred infections in the coming weeks.

 

[Brian_G]

You make much sense of course. Still doesn't add up, the virus has been around for months and would have arrived here much sooner than believed.
Just sayin'...

 

[The_Right_Honourable_Brit]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1248155576007307266